Trading using with candlesticks only and nothing else

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by ndtrader14a, May 23, 2016.

  1. deaddog

    deaddog

    Volume & price action
     
    #111     Jul 22, 2021
  2. You’re not hearing me. There are ways for retail traders to make money, such as trading momentum. Candle stick patterns and technical indicators are not predictive, however, and no matter how good you get at reading charts the fundamental problem is that they are random. It’s like thinking that studying astrology will actually help you make predictions in real life. Sometimes you will be right! But about as frequently as any other random test.
     
    #112     Jul 22, 2021
  3. How do you know that it's an institution?
     
    #113     Jul 22, 2021
  4. spectastic

    spectastic

    So the argument isn't whether trading candlesticks works or not, but pointing out that putting in the time to identify fundamental catalyst is the better way?

    because retail don't have enough money to move markets
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
    #114     Jul 22, 2021
  5. What's the difference between that and randomly buying/selling with a tight stop? You don't need charts and patterns.

    Actually that's not necessarily true. Almost anyone can move the market, but the question is whether that move can be sustained. See: Nick Leeson.
     
    #115     Jul 22, 2021
  6. I'm not really talking about fundamentals. The only profitable strategy for retail traders on technicals is to harvest price momentum. But you don't need charts and patterns to trade it-- in fact, adding charts & patterns will just add noise. So just focus on having a simple trading system of measuring momentum in a stock and trading its autocorrelation (buy and sell trends).

    Stop-loss strategies with serial correlation, regime switching, and transaction costs (mit.edu)
    • Stop losses only help traders when they are able to identify momentum stocks, otherwise you just lose money
    2019.12.16-Underreaction-Overreaction-and-Dynamic-Autocorrelation-of-Stock-Returns.pdf (upenn.edu)
    • Stock price autocorrelation (momentum) varies over time, so monitor it
    cwpe1322.pdf (cam.ac.uk)
    • Moving averages are simple tools that can help identify price momentum, so use them if you do not have a better way
    If you want to improve upon your momentum trading, do not spend time analyzing charts. Instead, overlay fundamental or other quantitative analysis or other sources of information.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2021
    #116     Jul 22, 2021
    YuriWerewolf and razle like this.
  7. deaddog

    deaddog

    Because of the volume and how the price moves.
     
    #117     Jul 22, 2021
  8. deaddog

    deaddog

    I cannot think of an easier way to gauge momentum than by looking at a chart.

    Overlay this other information on what?
     
    #118     Jul 22, 2021
    Vtechno likes this.
  9. Where did you learn or pick that up from? What tells you that it's not just a bunch of retail orders?
     
    #119     Jul 22, 2021
  10. Yes going through 50 charts of stocks is much easier than sorting a list of stock by the momentum criteria you seek...o_O
     
    #120     Jul 22, 2021