I just did an extensive analysis of my trading over the past few months and I have found some interesting statistics for myself. Here are the results. Times below are EST. They are entry times, not exit times or average times. This means, for instance, I should not take any new trades after 10:30, but if I am already in a trade, then this is ok. Suggested Trading Times (Listed from Best to Worst): 9:45-10:30 2:50-3:00 1:55-2:20 1:00-1:20 11:30-12:00 DANGER ZONES (Listed from Worst to Best): 10:30-11:00 1:20-1:55 12:15-1:00 2:30-2:50 3:30-4:00 Anybody care to comment? Some interesting things I did not realize, that will probably improve my bottom line: the 10:30-11:00 slot is a killer. For some reason I'm not trading this time well. Don't know why. The 1:20-1:55 slot is really bad as well. What is great is that I really WAS suprised at some of these findings. Looks like I'm gonna cut my trading day in half soon! Basically, it looks like I should trade between 9:45-10:30, 11:00-12:00, 1:00-1:20, 1:55-3:30. Don't ya just love statistics?
first it depends upon what type of system you are trading as to what times are best, but, Look at the time above and make correlations 0945-1030 is generally economic news driven (lots of announcements at 0945v and 1000. 1130-1200 finishing off the morning moves before lunchtime dolldrums creep in. 1355 and 1300 people drifting back in from lunch maybe, also around 1400 some economic announcements. 1450 last 10 mins before some markets close. There is a time pattern in the markets which ties in with either news or human behaviour/habit. Also looking at the charts, these times correlate well with a greater number of times when the market is most likely to switch direction. (I did a study on this some time back). There is something in what you are saying, but it also depends upon the type of system you are trading. Best Natalie
sounds like you a right on the money. I have been reviewing my trades also and have been considering the same thing. I am throwing away $150/day on marginal setups on marginal volume. But when volume is good, the trades are quick and profitable.
10:30-11:00 1:20-1:55 12:15-1:00 2:30-2:50 3:30-4:00 Historical good times to fade Listed from Best to Worst
Yep - market is being thrown around a little with no impetus to go anywhere and no volume to back up the little breakout attempts except the first which is often a good pull back inside the morning move. Best Natalie
I trade NQ, ES and YM from 7-4. I take breaks when it gets quiet, but there are no predicatable times anymore. The largest moves seem to happen 8-12. 3-4:15
The above stuff is very very significant. You are using a discovery approach that will get you to continuous trading fairly soon. The variationis duration of the portions is very helpful for analysis. Here are key items that you have going for you: 1. You stay out of the market during its opening sync period which extends up to 9:45. 2. You are on the verge of being able to greatly add to your performance with the addition of another variable. 3. You are trading well in some areas** Here are some itiems that you can use to eliminate most of your problem areas. 1. Recognize the cut off level of activity where there is not enough signal to trade relative to the market "noise"* 2. Currently you do not have a neutral trading bias; You have a long bias that helps but also hinders.~~ Some specifics: Losses: You do not have the ability to exit on failures of trends; You can use acceleration of price(the actual lack of it) to eliminate staying in trades. Secondly you can observe inactivity in the direction you determined was profitable. No one is going with your viewpoint. Because you response time is very slow, do this to reduce losses you get into: reverse and get out as far after your entry as the loss you are presently taking before reversing. To make this automatic, at first, set stops using twice the number of contracts you are running. Think of this a putting. You are either short of the hole or too far past hole by the same amount. By turning your misjudgements into small profits, you will get over some of the fears you continually post about. Skip the MOC thing for 6 months. Profits: You do not trade the full run of proits in any trend. Your analysis would be different if you did. You have two fear based problems: straight fear (from your loss history) and a hair trigger (see baggerlord journal for the next 6 weeks). You need monitor in a manner to not be able to see small stuff. Try to always define the profit channel you are in. The best way is to keep it simple. do two things: watch the number of players playing and see that you have a lot of company always. Always view the trend as taking off fast then tapering back to continue to the S or R. approaching the S or R is tough place because of the herd holding actions. You now bail out way before S or R. Don't go first; try to go in the middle then try to go later. Your new schedule and associated reason will be: rewarding: 9:48 - 11:15 do whole trends 1:10 - 2:30 do whole trends 2:30 - 3:30 use reversals sidelining: 9:30 - 9:47 before sync 11:16 - 1:09 midday noise killing signals 3:30 - 4:15 end effects
your best / worst list is funny to me. I always found that midday time is far better than it's reputation and had only little problems there. The time 9.45 - 10.30 seems far more difficult to me since you have no time to decide anything.
thanks jack. i think what you are saying is that the reason i am taking losses in the 10:30-11:00 period is because i am basically trying to reenter at the end of a trend. you said that i am unable to exit on failure of trends...well, actually i think my problem is that i am unable to 'recognize' the end of the trend and not reenter, thinking its continuing. i have gone back and confirmed this is true. the 11:15-12:15 period seems pretty good for me, but maybe i haven't run enough stats. after that, it seems like slightly before the top of each hour, there are good opportunities. this goes hand in hand with what you are saying about having 'good company' (i.e. institutional $$) the trek continues next week.....