Do not take trade exactly at trading time! Trading time is set up and your indicators are a trigger. If at of after trading time there is a signal from your indicator then you take a trade. For this presentation I added 8period CCI divergence as an indicator( trigger ) Look at the chart and look for 8CCI divergence around 10:40. You should see it clearly. Next week I will be posting Trading times for S&P500 and I will try to put together "final " set of indicators . I have to learn to be clearer in my explanations. Thanks, Walter
I've been reading this thread and I've been watching how these times play out. It does seem that the times are accurate enough (pretty accurate overall) at predicting some sort of playable trade within a very short time of the posted time. Sometimes reversals, sometimes breakouts from consolidation, or continuation of trend, etc. Usually for several nq points, usually 4 or more. (sometimes much more) Trades taken on/near these times based on the times + price action, indicators, etc., Are still just like any other trades. Place your bet, place your stop, and your define your exit point and you just might make the bux. I'm reading statements in this thread like - this is where I'm confused - this I'm less sure about, etc. Are these times expected to produce *certainty*? Heck, every time that I am an instant away from clicking on *transmit* order, the market whispers in my ear, "are you 'sure' that you want to put on this trade?"- kind of like windows, "are you sure that you want to delete this file?" The best certainty that a trader can hope for is the certainty that if the trader indeed is trading an edge properly, that in the long run there will be more gains produced than losses and expenses. Just from a couple of weeks observation and some trading on these times, it appears to me that they are accurate enough, often enough to be traded profitably in the long run. (at least so far) On the ones that I've traded, I've been whipped on a couple of them, but have produced profits on most. I've also declined quite a few of them. Some I'm glad I did, some I wish I hadn't. (sometimes I'm taking a nap) But that's trading aint it. I agree with Natalie, "It is indeed very interesting and hard to ignore." Thanks for posting the times Walther....it's also fun to watch and see how they will play out even when I don't trade at/near them.
Once again I will make a statement from Quah's post and good point made. Walt(h)er has implied a 10 minute window before or after the call time. That would equal 20 minutes. In the post that Quah just wrote he shows a quote from Walt(h)er stating 10 to 20 minutes for the play working out. So, Walt(h)er has established a 20 minute window. This window of time just needs some explanation. "If you get a signal near the call time, then you have a setup" This does not work for 1m charts. There could be 4 different signals in a 20m time period on a 1m chart. If these call times are for 5m charts within a 10 minute window either side of the call time then there is only time for one move. Walt(h)er, at 10:40 yesterday, which I have already explained in an earlier post, there was a very quick move down on a 1m chart which if you caught the exact breadown and exact bottom you may have caught 1.5. Then no later than 5minutes from the call time NQ broke out on upside for 3 - 4 points. Then, at 10:50, still within 10 minutes from the call time, you could say that there was a short. I hope the point being made, that a 20minute window on a 1m chart does not work, is clear and perhaps provokes insight how call times may work for 1m charts. I play all my trades from 1m charts, by the way.
As Quah pointed out, Walther himself (likely in defense of his methods, imo) says that it can take up to 20min for a signal to be generated after the 'trading time'. Given that Walther's 'trading times' are supposed to indicate a time when significant market activity is likely (or, going by the recent record, 20-0, guaranteed ) to occur, my interpretation is that "at x.xxam/pm, and up to 20min after, the market will make a significant move, any move". Well, I have a couple of points to raise here. Firstly, there doesn't seem to be any definition of what a significant move actually is. As one of the more recent examples shows, it could be as little as 1.5 or 2 points. I don't know about you, but I would hardly call that signficant. In any case, whatever magnitude of movement is defined as signifcant, it needs to be within the context of how the market was acting before the 'trading time'. For example, if the market had an average range of 4 points per bar over the past 10 bars then you could hardly call 2 points 'significant'. Secondly, the time of the day of the 'trading time' must also be taken into account. Say the call is '9.35'. Well, surely you can't give THIS call up to 20min to play out -- obviously you are going to SOME significant movement between 9.35 and 9.55. To claim that a 5 point move occurring at 9.45 was predicted by the 'trading time' is totally bogus. I'm not saying this has been happening, just that I think if we're going to talk seriously about Walther's 'trading times' we need to be a lot clearer about what they represent and about how to measure their accuracy/value.
Ok Walter - I'll leave this thread alone. If you remember - I defended you and your times from the start of you posting them. This is because I do something similar with times of my own, and I understand (understood) what your times represent. Now you are acting like I'm against you in some way - when I'm not. Your choice. Good luck!