The point about prudent use of capital is not that one needs to be rich. It simply means that you need to have enough capital to trade the instrument and the setup that you are trading. For example, let's say you want to trade a set up in ES with a $200 (including commissions) stop loss. Then, you would need to have 10,000 of Total Liquid Net Worth in order to trade. If stopped out for a loss, and your TLNW is now 9800, you would then not be able to trade anymore.--At least not with $200 stop loss. If your new $196 stop loss based upon 2% of TLNW would require you to have stop placed too close to the entry point (inside the noise), then certainly you cannot trade. This is much more important than the attempt here to draw tons of lines and attempt to catch every turn (overtrade). In addition, when correct, you need to let that winner run until it makes sense to get out, or to your target. Use a properly drawn trend line if you would like.
What is with these narcissitic blowhards that think the internet has to be all about them? Well, I'm going to shorten this thread up by putting Buy1Sell2 on my ignore list, along with kp. EDIT: Ahhh ... that's better. I just had a funny thought: Since they are both clearly narcissists, I imagine everyone on ET could ignore them, essentially making each one invisible to all but himself, and neither would ever realize that no one is reading anything that they post. As for me, one day away from ET was not enough. I'm going to log-off for another day or so.
Of course, one can't let the winners run if one never enters the trade to begin with. But what the hell. Trolls who keep bumping this thread (and the others) up to the top of the list at least provide publicity, whether they intend to or not. Which may account for the overwhelming interest in this approach over the past couple of months.
Might be a language barrier thing, but I'm not certain that I understand what you mean by "flip" here. Do you mean that the offer would be hit more often on the way up and that you start seeing bids being mostly hit instead around the moment when balance shifts to selling?
Not sure, but I think you might be mixing up two distinct concepts here: trend lines are easy to understand tools, but they help visualize part of a greater picture, they're not a complete system on their own. You can learn what a line is in "virtually no time", but I don't see putting it to good use as being equally easy thereafter. If it were purely mechanical (like, say, an EMA crossing system) I'd already be trading live right now, probably automated too. Now that'd be neat...
So, overlooking the trolls who have no idea what this thread is all about and getting back to business, again, I'm holding on to this. Given our proximity to the median of the weekly trend channel, there's no reason to sell, though I will place a stop just in case the world blows up before tomorrow morning (can't afford to lose our connection now, can we?). Hope everyone has a lovely evening with replay.
25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 25 bid 50 offer 25 trades 25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 75 trades 50 bid 75 offer 75 trades 50 bid 75 offer 75 trades 50 bid 75 offer 75 trades 75 bid 00 offer 00 trades 00 bid 25 offer 00 trades 00 bid 25 offer 25 trades 00 bid 25 offer 25 trades 25 bid 50 offer 25 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 trades 25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 25 bid 50 offer 25 trades 50 bid 75 offer 50 bid 75 offer 25 bid 50 offer 50 trades 00 bid 25 offer 25 trades
I wanted to address this today rather than let it go. There are lower highs (or higher lows) all over the place during the ocurse of most trading days. Most are NOT short (or long) entries, imo. I am hoping that these charts need no further explanation. As DbPhoenix has said many times in the past, Bar interval is irrelevant. What is relevant is trending vs ranging and what one expects price to do once it breaks out of a range. What I considered to be the highest reward, lowest risk entry of the counter-trend rally came at the reversal shown below. It took all of 50 seconds or so to play out. It would have been clearly evident to anyone looking for this sort of behavior in that particular context, whether one was viewing a 1 tick chart, 5 second bar interval chart, 60 minute bar interval chart, or a time & sales window, or standing in an open out cry pit. The next highest reward, low risk entry (other than retrace tests of this initial break) to catch the reversal of this counter trend rally was, imo, detailed in this thread earlier in real time - see my posts starting at 11:29 EDT) If you cannot study this series and see how and why I say bar interval does not matter to me, then you need to study more (devote time and attention to acquiring knowledge). If you cannot study this series of charts and see why the reversal was where it was and not at the low test of the earlier range, then you need to study more (devote time and attention to acquiring knowledge). I doubt there is anything more I can do to make this any more clear to anyone else because this is how I see it. To ask for something different or something more is for you to try to ask me to see things as you do because you are unable to see things as I do. That would be a waste of time for both of us. This is the best I can do.
Agreed.--now let's get to the crux of the matter. You are working way too hard at this. You did identify the correct short. The reason the short entry was where you indicated was because price was extremely overbought during a downtrend on the larger 15 minute time frame. It was not too overbought at the first area and did not exhibit classic reversal. This short then could have been ridden all the way and covered at the close with a trailing stop outside the noise. Good job picking the entry, but way too much analysis to get there.