Today was a practically perfect day for the SLA/AMT as virtually everything that is important was covered. Unfortunately, there's just too much to put on one set of charts, so I'm going to offer two sets, one focused on AMT and the other focused on the SLA. I quit before lunch, so the first chart is covered in the posts. I did, however, draw the range and OH lines since they will be carried forward on the subsequent charts. Even limiting this to AMT, there's still much more that could be said, either now or later, so if there are questions . . .
Thanks DbPhoenix. That middle chart has so much value to me, and I printed it out and put it in my binder. I usually wait for a BO and pullback, except for the opening range - I always take a BO and like you say - look for other traders to chase after me into the trade, or I cut it quick. Where I tend to make mistakes is that I often hold too long after it becomes obvious that a secondary reaction/test has occurred and the market is moving the other way. That middle chart is gold to me. Thanks again! EDIT: "after it should have become obvious to me"
As I said earlier, I'll be posting charts with the SLA. Since you're doing something else, please confine your charts to your journal. Actually it would probably be best if I moved all this to TL. I'd rather keep it here, but focus will be important if those who are trying to implement this are to do it successfully, and, at TL, I'm a moderator. Those eight of you who said you trade this intraday can read the posts without joining (actually, anybody can), but you won't be able to post. On the other hand, joining is no big deal. And you don't have to worry about being bugged by anybody. The charts I posted above will be copied to TL. The SLA charts will be posted there as and when I get them done. See you there.
DB, I hope this is the appropriate journal for this question. In studying overnight market action, I find that I am asking myself this question, which I have not been able to answer. "In determining a range from the overnight action until the next day regular trading open, is there a portion of the overnight action by which the next day behavior is more particularly guided?" I am sure you have addressed this before. I apologize in advance that I have not been able to find the answer.
This isn't a journal but a trading thread. Even so, it's more or less closed. Your question, however, was addressed this morning, so you may want to read today's posts. Most of mine don't amount to much, so it shouldn't take long.
DB, thank you for the golden nuggets strewn about, yesterday. Newbies may want to save these pages, as you may be too green to see it now, but you'll appreciate it when you're ready. And for people, who are looking for exact entries, and exit calls, should look else where, as DB has no intention of doing it, and neither will I. It is your due diligence to put in hours of work, and only then, you'd know it's a thin edge to spread around. Schaefer
Shot in the dark here, but I was hoping you might provide some clarification on the above information. This was posted by you at TL, but the "Trading the Wyckoff Way" thread is closed and I didn't want to clutter the SLA/Intraday thread yet so again - shot in the dark with posting this here. I've been doing a bit of reading and this seems like quite the nugget of information if I could better understand the intent.
From Wyckoff Analysis 1930-1931 pdf: In taking a position in the market, which, of course would be a long position, we have had, up to now, three opportunities: (1) On December 17th when the market gave indications of having completed a selling climax, and at the same time, as shown by the entry on our vertical chart for that day, was able to rally vigorously on increasing volume. This was the first time it had shown ability to rally aggressively and the first time increasing volume had been shown on an advance for some time past. On the basis of these tentatively bullish indications we are justified in establishing long positions if we can get in near enough to the lows so that when we place stop orders on our commitments two or three points under our purchase prices, our stops will be about 1 to 1½ or 2 points under the danger level, that is the lows of the climax day. (2) Our next buying opportunity is on December 29th when the market completes three days of lower support but the closing prices on each of these days are between 140 and 141, showing that the selling pressure is losing its force, since the net result of these three days' pulling and hauling is to leave the average almost unchanged following a considerable reaction. At the same time, lower volume on the reaction from December 18th 's high, compared with the volume of the mid-December decline, confirms the inference that selling pressure is losing its force; buying power is overcoming it, as it now appears that the market has completed a typical secondary reaction (see previous Footnote) which has the effect of broadening the zone of support around the 136-140 level to sustain a proportionately more substantial advance than the first, we either buy on this reaction if we missed our first opportunity, or add to our holdings; with stops on these new positions, as before, under the danger point, that is, the lows of December 17th . The average is now “on the springboard”. (3) On Jan 3rd the average goes into new high ground, overcoming the previous tops of December 18th, l9th, 20th and January 2nd. Volume tends to increase on the rally days, December 30th to January 3rd, an indication that is characteristic of a bullish trend. However, this is the least favorable of our three buying opportunities so far, since we would now be purchasing on an upwave, thereby materially increasing our risk, whereas previous commitments were established on downwaves, close to the danger point.
This template might be of help: This template might be of help. Buying the selling climax is a testicular trade as the trader sometimes/often has little to go on beyond the apparent fact of the climax itself. The information risk is high. But if he's right, he can't ask for a better price. The price risk is low. The information risk is less on the test because price has something to test, i.e., the apparent climax, but price risk can be more as the test is so often higher (buying a test which is slightly lower is also a testicular trade). But if and when price can get past the last swing high, noted here by the dashed pink line, lower left, the odds are greater that this is/was a genuine climax and secondary reaction (test) and that the upswing is good to go. The information risk is less, but the price risk is greater because he's buying it so much higher than he would have had he bought the climax or, next best, the test. The obvious difficulty comes in knowing whether or not one is looking at a climax or a test of preliminary support (those successive lower lows on the right; an example of this is also posted to the Volume thread at TL). Dunnigan had this problem as does Ross. And AMT can often provide the context for making this call. But sometimes price will plunge dramatically, as it did the middle of last October, and the only help that AMT can provide is the understanding that a plunge like that can't last. Buying such a plunge is extremely testicular. But, what if one just stands aside until the dust settles and waits for a less-information-risk entry, as in '97 (after the LTC plunge, one had two weeks to buy)? We're up 500pts since October. Who isn't going to be satisfied with that? Calling these climaxes is not the slam dunk that the Wyckoff "experts" and the VSAans claim it is. If one is part of a collaborative effort, which trading forums used to be twenty years ago and an example of which Gringo provides in his threads, making these calls is far easier. But there is no such thing as a risk-free trade. Specific questions and specific charts lead to specific examples, of course, but this may do in the meantime.
TL is down so I posted this morning's chart at BM: https://www.bigmiketrading.com/index-futures-trading/34908-trading-sla-amt-intraday.html#post475124 Upside target appears to be around 4450.