Good point. Now I'm wondering how often trends take on a similar look. Can the same patterns be traded reliably when still on the right side of the chart?
The price behavior on the 30 second chart doesn't allow for a similar trendline to be drawn, the best that can be done without more showing on the left side is to draw from the 8:30 low to the low between the double tops at about 8:33. That trendline get's crossed over at the first candle drop from the 2nd top and that would be the 3. However, I'd probably be inclined to draw a trendline from the 8:30 low extending through the 8:36 low and when price crosses that line at about 8:38:30 I think that could be the 3, which is way below the neckline drawn at the middle low between the two tops. I think one of those is wrong! How'd I do? If the 3 (trendline) is crossed after price crosses the neckline, I'm not sure if the rules listed allow for an entry, however, taking the cross of the 3 trendline is a trade I might take, with the stop at the top the previous 30 second candle.
I apologize in advance for this post as it has nothing to do with the purpose of this thread and is likely of no benefit to anyone except myself for relieving some of the boredom I felt watching the ES today. It helps to try to laugh it off instead of giving in to feeling frustration. I do like trading, but watching price range around without much direction is difficult. It helps to realize it actually was doing something, it was testing the high of the day before testing the lows. Since it failed to break through the high at 9 am Central, it makes sense that it gave up and dropped. Anyhow, it reminded me of a very old skit. If you happen to watch the video, just a fair warning that it is boring (I like it though), just as the ES was for most of the morning.
I talked with a family member today who is not a trader, but was helpful in offering some suggestions. He said there are some highly-trained (non-trading) professionals whose jobs require a checklist to be followed. After all I've shared with him over the years with the difficulties in trading, he also said that he thinks the difference between those that are profitable and those that are losers in trading might just come down to those who follow a good checklist and those who don't. He suggested I work on getting a very accurate checklist of everything required for a trade as well as a rule that if I'm tempted to trade against the checklist or when I am confused as to what the trade should be, that I immediately turn off the computer and leave the area. He also suggested having in that plan a certain amount of a daily loss that I cannot go over, no matter what, even if it looks like a for-sure thing to make back losses. I explained that that could be hard because sometimes you need to take a few small losses before getting the bigger trade, but he just replied that that is how gamblers lose money and I have to never break the rule on my daily loss amount. I don't know how he understood all of this without ever having taken a trade in his life, but it is exactly what I know some good traders strive for and it makes sense. It's just not easy for me to narrow down into a trading plan everything so exactly. Also, in emotional moments I will break rules and sometimes that can make money, encouraging me that breaking rules might be a good thing sometimes. On the flip-side, breaking rules also will often not work. I need to remember that the rules are there for my protection. All that to say that I plan to follow through on these suggestions and for the umpteenth time work on refining my trading plan AND loss plan. It was good advice and though it was welcome and necessary, there's a part of me that just wishes trading was super easy...no way to lose money and no need for a plan....I guess I'm just wishing for a way to make money without working for it.
It really is that simple. If you can check off everything on your checklist you can put on the trade. Take your stops and follow your risk management plan.