Hey Vol, My numbers are all generated off of the OHLC of ES data, rounded to KISS. I also run the numbers for NQ (for myself) and observe both indices when trading. Months of trading the indices show that while they do not generate the same patterns (for any pattern traders out there) the actual indices move pretty much in lock-setp. However, while I tried to "get a feel" for the YM e-mini, I never could make it work with that one. So I only use it as a hedge for when we have a catastrophic event in the ES (like when there's a problem at the exchange and I can't liquidate my position in the ES and the market starts to move against it ... :eek: ). This happened not to long ago in the YM to MDT who (fortunately) was in a short trade at the time (as the market was getting ready to drop) but the option was there in case there had been a change in trend. Later, JJ
OK Remember how I mentioned that, even if you are in a Bullish Uptrend according to the Pivot Trend indicator, you could Short if the the TRIN was above 1.05? Well it's currently at 1.11, so I am going to look to get short on a Reversal Short. edit: The TRIN has dropped back down below 1.05 now, so for me to take the short, it will have to go back above 1.05.
This chart shows the action better (I want you to get used to seeing the setup). P.S. These patterns and this process works on any and pretty much all traded securities which generate an OHLC number, so if you want to apply the srategy to other markets, feel free.
While the market has entered the "strike zone" again, I won't take that trade. Why? It launched from R1 yesterday and finished up, and while it certainly could do so again, I'd give it less than a 50/50 chance of doing so. I like to err on the side of being too conservative in my trading, and stack the odds in my favor when entering a position. Looking for a retrace back to P or S1. Best, Jimmy
Yes, they're generated by the QuoteTracker Software, so I can't change them. From my spreadsheet I have the exact same numbers as you (rounded up). I'm not sure how the gap effects the way that QuoteTracker calculates the Pivots, but that might have something to do with it. Just go with your calculated formulas, while there are many different variations, those are pretty much the ones used by 90% of guys who trade'em. *** Looks like it going to Bull onwards and upwards for now, but I am long neither on this thread or my models (don't like the risk vs. the reward). It may hold, but I expect some profit taking soon.
Anatomy of a Headfake Here's the setup. 1. TRIN Drops below 0.85 2. Market gives a Buy Signal off of R1, remembering the previous day's action, they climb on-board. 3. Market drops down on'em, the resulting profit taking should insure the gains of the early longs.
ES Chart showing what should turn out to be a pretty good headfake ... at least that's how I'm gonna play it, and I'll take the chance of telling you what I think before it plays out, not after. JJ edit: after all, thre's a chance I could be wrong, but the idea is not to make the most money, the idea is to always trade with the odds in your favor.
OK, I was wrong. I didn't make a Call on the thread, and I didn't enter a Long position for my own trading account based on my proprietary method either. The exact same setup, two days in a row, now I've learned something new. It's very rare to see it (at least, it's very rare for ME to see it), but the Continuation trade would have delivered profits AND the market is closing on its Highs. Fortunately, since the Pivot Trend is Bullish (and despite all arguments to the opposite, the ES has displayed amazing trendiness over last couple of days), and the TRIN never signaled selling, I was not Short (but I bet lots of folks were, this is one for the books!). ... I will have to look at Gaps (Japanese Windows) when they happen in relation to the Pivot Trend more carefully. Best Regards, Jimmy Jam