For those of you that like pivots...I would, also, suggest looking at the TBonds ZB on IB. S1 today was 109 31 and R1 was 110 16. Pretty good money from the S1. We got a few sell signals using JJ's original entry. The last one at 11:15am, I took, but quickley bailed for a .50 loss. Why? The naz is moving up. You've probably heard the term "Don't fight the Fed"? When trading the es or ym, "Don't fight the Naz"
Here's the redone numbers, using the close of today's contract from yesterday. R1 - 1323 pp - 1317 S1 - 1309 the pivot point will hold back prices ... but it's a long way to get there. best, jj
Donkee, I haven't looked at pivots for awhile. I know the calculations can vary and since your numbers are excellent I thought I'd ask what you are using to make your pivot number calculations? John
... and here's a little something I got from riskarb on the "Your Favorite Indicator" thread, started by no less than our very own cashmoney69 ... if he keeps this up and applies half of what he learns here, he's gonna make a hell 'uva trader. The actual indicator is called Oleg's WPR and risk says he trains it every 10 days or so, what does that mean? He can teach it to sit up and beg?, fetch money maybe?? Anyway, my version of the indicator is called an " AMA Binary Wave", care of a guy named Perry Kaufman[i/] (you can google it), I have it on a 5 minute timeframe, and I am using a 40 period SMA to refine the entries and exits. It's designed to catch the reaction to R1 / PP / S1, based on Price Action primarily, with little lag, and no guessing. (see enclosed chart. Best, JJ P.S. ... and here's a thread listing another trading process that I like. It uses a multi-time frame analysis to enter trades, with the higher time-frame being used to determine the dominant trend, and the lower time frame being used to make entries/exits. Way too complicated for me to trade my own account and post here (so I won't be using it for this thread), but it's cool if it works for you. Simple Profitable Method http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=76297&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
Just the standard formula: all session numbers: P= Pivot point; C= Close: H= High: and L= Low. The Pivot point number is the high, low; close added up and then divided by three. P=(H+L+C)/3= pivot point First resistance level take the pivot point number times two and then subtract the low. (Px2)-L= Resistance 1 Second resistance, take the pivot point number, add the high and then subtract the low. P+H-L= Resistance 2 First support take the pivot point number times two and then subtract the high. (Px2)-H =Support 1 For the second support, take the pivot point number, subtract the high and then add the low. P-H+L= Support 2 BTW: S2 today was 1303.50
We had a significant "delta" shift just prior to your entry that I took a scalp SHORT on.............. http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/09/07/ES_317_VB_4.png I like to get in right when there seems to be a shift in "delta" to try and hit my target before an extended dead period.......and prior to any snap back to the uptrend from the days lows. JJ - what is that new indicator you have on your charts?
That's called an AMA Binary Wave. It's created by Perry Kaufman, http://www.perrykaufman.com/, and is designed to catch breakouts to either the up or downside. I figured a breakout type indicator would be more effective when trying to trade off of Pivots, Support and Resistance than trending indicators, which is what I've been using up to now. I actually got the idea from riskarb over at the My Favorite Indicators thread, where he put a picture up of something called Oleg's WPR, or whatever, on a 1 hour time frame. I recognized it as a basic Adaptive Moving Average Binary Wave indicator, and since he then became reticent about sharing it, I jumped all over it (if you don't wanna share your stuff from the get-go, then don't post it). As you can see from the picutre, it gives you decent signals and tells you immediately when you are wrong and should cut the trade. With a little work I might be able to make something decent out of it . We'll see. Best, JJ
BTW, he DonKee, did you notice that the current contract of the NQ is 0.25's, not 0.50's like the last sessions? I knew they were changing the increments, but I didn't know when ... no wonder I've been getting stopped-out of my NQ trades this morning! :eek: IMHO it isn't going to have an effect on the long-term trediness of the contract ... a $ is a $ is a $. It's just more fodder for the brokers. Later, JJ