Trading the Pivots

Discussion in 'Journals' started by JimmyJam, Aug 13, 2006.

  1. For Thursday, 8/24/06.

    Market Status

    Pivot Trend: Bearish

    1st Resistance: 1304
    Median Pivot: 1298
    1st Support: 1291

    Current Trend: Up
    ***
    In reviewing the past couple of weeks' worth of action, the Pivot Trend has been very accurate in calling the market's turns, as it has been very trendy, without much chopping back and forth in consolidation.

    Yesterday it went from Bullish to Neutral for the ES and was Bearish for the NQ, calling the day's action pretty well. So we will only be trading by the Pivot Trend's direction for initiating trades going forward.

    This will give the thread viewer an easy process by which to monitor trades for the system, which are as follows:

    1) Pivot Trend Direction
    2) Setup using the 18 and 40 SMA's
    3) Confirmation by the CCI 50 Histogram

    Using this process is simpler, easy to follow, does not require specialized knowledge, and is very easy to trade and record.

    ***
    Since the Current Trend is Up, and the CCI Histogram 50 is very good at showing extended moves and keeping the trader on the correct side of the Current Trend, I anticipate movement past the Pivot (may provide initial resistance and retrace) and up to R1, at which point I anticipate entering a Short Position for the System.

    If the market cannot move past the Median Pivot of 1298 and the 18 and 40 SMA's setup for a Reversal, along with confirmation by the CCI 50 Histogram, I will enter Short there.

    Best Regards,

    JJ

    P.S. FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS A COPY OF THE BASIC EXCEL MODEL AND WRITTEN INSTRUCTIONS, PLEASE DOWNLOAD THEM FROM PAGE 22 OF THE THREAD.
     
    #271     Aug 24, 2006
  2. You're welcome.
     
    #272     Aug 24, 2006
  3. Hi SG77,

    If you are a new poster, OK, I will take you at your word and explain my reasoning to you.

    I use ET as Trading Lab, a Think Tank to throw ideas around and see what works and does not work. It is very good for that process, as you've committed to a course of action in a public forum, and you get to see what the results of that action are.

    As I previously stated, this is a trading model based on the Pivots that I am creating for the public in which we can all model and gain a better understanding of how they work and how to trade them. This thread is what is known as a work in progress and so there will be change and growth as part of the process.

    I see that I've stated at least 5 times while on this thread that I do not trade off of them, but rather I trade by my proprietary model which is working very well for me. I also see that people keep referring to the thread as if I trade off of them (the Pivots).

    I am doing this thread as a public service. I really can't make it any clearer than that. Some people will understand where I am coming from, most will not, that is fine.

    I have already profited from the experience.

    Best Regards,
     
    #273     Aug 24, 2006
  4. Thank you very much for the kind words Steve.

    Your post is very apropro.

    If new traders (or not so new) can gain anything from the experience of my starting this thread, even if it is only using the Pivot Trend spreadsheet as a basic model for determining market trend and strength, it will have been worth it.

    Best Regards,

    JJ
     
    #274     Aug 24, 2006
  5. longtex

    longtex

    I looked at your xls yesterday - here's a little trick you might want to add

    In B2, enter the ROW # of the day you're calculating. In C2 through L2, change each formula to this: =INDIRECT("C"&$B$2) - of course. you'll change that "C" to "D" for D2, "E" for E2 and so on.

    That way, just enter, for example, 37 in B2 and the rest of row 2 will fill in from row 37.
     
    #275     Aug 24, 2006
  6. Thanks a lot longtex.

    I thought that formula might exist, but I've never been able to figure it out. It's definitely someting on the wish list though.

    Much appreciated.

    JJ

    P.S. Was just checking out your thread, how's it going?

    P.P.S. When I said I had already profited from the experience, this is exactly what I was talking about ... I've been looking for that formula for a loooooooooooong damn time :) ... and I've been getting a lot of this lately.
     
    #276     Aug 24, 2006
  7. 4re

    4re

    Hey JJ,
    I am going to show my ignorance here but I have to ask is this .xls coding you are using going to eventually be a program that you can use to automate this system? I don't know all the ins and outs of excell and even less about programming but the idea of seems very interesting. Keep it up....

    Gary
     
    #277     Aug 24, 2006
  8. Es poisble, queiro mas educacion in la disciplina, a programa en la manera ese es muy excellente!

    That would be yes.

    But that is a whole other discipline and requires more in-depth education on my part, but not for now, though.
     
    #278     Aug 24, 2006
  9. 4re

    4re

    Mooy el coolo

    That would mean very cool :D I wish I knew how to do that would love to try. Maybe one day...
     
    #279     Aug 24, 2006
  10. The early Gappage doesn't surprise me overmuch. Will pretty much be looking to fade it at the first opportunity.
     
    #280     Aug 24, 2006