Trading the NQ: Take 2

Discussion in 'Journals' started by k p, Apr 21, 2015.

  1. toucan

    toucan


    see my pm
     
    #161     Apr 28, 2015
  2. k p

    k p

    done! :)
     
    #162     Apr 28, 2015
  3. Handle123

    Handle123

    Price patterns whether on monthly or 5 second charts, Support/Resistance, Head & Shoulders doesn't change, trendlines don't change. Price gets so far and stops or goes through, many books now and material online to study. These are examples using your chart, I wouldn't recommend trading 5 second charts, but to show that price is same in all timeframes.
     
    #163     Apr 29, 2015
  4. k p

    k p

    I absolutely agree that these patterns show up on all charts. I just clearly do not have a set of rules for how to get into a trade that works sufficiently well enough to allow for several trades a day where the profits are bigger than the losses. I especially like you wrote somewhere that your main goal is to eliminate risk. I like this because it would help the fear aspect, which is something that I think a new trader has to learn to overcome, and there is no better way than small wins along the way with tight stops. But I simply have not yet built a plan that accomplishes this.

    (ps. I look at your charts every day and I still can't figure them out. :( I can't figure out where the entry and exit is if its not marked by the platform like on my charts. I wish I could figure it out because I certainly like your style of small and yet consistent wins, but I am sad to admit that I'm just not smart enough to follow along. I'd like to clearly understand where the entry and exit is, and on some chart where you mark +1 or +8 I thought I could almost get it, but its like a puzzle to me.)

    (god... please somebody else reply to say that I'm not the only one who can't figure out Handle's charts! LOL)
     
    #164     Apr 29, 2015
  5. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    I don't get it...I've seen you say something similar about your own trading and now you're saying the same about other stuff. Considering you're saying such and its not my opinion...wouldn't it be best and easier to just develop a trading plan and then backtest (manually if necessary) it prior to doing another trade ???

    Seriously, what's the rush and hopefully you're not trading with real money because if you are, its an uphill battle you'll never win in trying to be a successful trader. This is one of the hardest things to learn about trading...stay on the sidelines and study the markets for as long as it takes until you have all the pieces of the puzzle together and you're no longer confused about whatever price action you're trading.

    By the way, how the heck did you get onto the 5 second charts ? That's a scalper time frame. Therefore, do you have the proper resources to be a scalper such as special commission rates, trading platform suitable for scalping and many other stuff that successful scalpers use ?

    You have awareness that as a discretionary trader (a trader not using automation)...there is some intuition involved within each trading day. Call it art if you want and it can not be taught...its something that's learned on your own and you can do such without taking a single trade. Yet, that intuition must occur within a framework of a trading plan...not outside as I'm sure you've learned. Also, most successful traders tend to not use the word intuition. Instead, they tend to use the word adapting to markets that's constantly changing...adapting within the trading plan.

    There's just so much more to successful trading than trade signals that by the time most figure that out...its too late to recover from so much instilled bad trading habits...it can't be cleaned up. Simply, you are the key...all that psychological stuff while interacting with the markets...not your trade signals.

    In today's market environment...most successful traders would advise against scalping or trying to use a scalping system via charts because its something that worked well in markets before algos showed up. Scalping on second charts is for traders trying to capture ticks...not points.

    Second charts requires fighter jet pilot reaction skills. I can't do it.

    Late Edit:

    I didn't see the above until now. Once again, what's the rush ? If you can't manage that rush to put on a real-money trade and stay on the sidelines until you've put the puzzle together...you are not going to figure things out while trading. Yeah, its true that simulator trading results will be different (most likely better) than real money trading via the obvious...its in more of a relax and control environment...that psychological aspect.

    Yet, one should not be doing simulator or real-money trading if they know they don't have an adequate trading plan. Trading with real money when you shouldn't be trading will instill bad trading behaviors you can't fix. Therefore, in my opinion, your goal should be how to control that urge to trade the markets...how to stay on the sidelines while you learn, test and put the pieces of the puzzle together. You could have an addiction to trade, to be in the heat of the battle.

    P.S. I notice you do "dabble" a little into the psychological aspects of your trading. I think you should do it more often without trading considering you're a discretionary trader. Every day in the markets is different. On some days, that psychological stuff will be the most important factor in your trading results...not your trade signals.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2015
    #165     Apr 29, 2015
    slugar and fourtiwinks like this.
  6. BonScott

    BonScott

    Why not wait for a marked level to be hit after the open, and then only take one trade for the day, and hold it until your either your 10 point target is hit, or the stoploss at the marked level.
    I can see from the details that people are posting that no one is getting all the right trades. We are all just trying to get a few trades that are larger than our losses. A lot of tasty points are left on the table at the end of the day no matter which way we trade.

    I'll bet that none of the big HFT professionals got all of the big fall and rise yesterday. Most likely they took a lot of little ticks when they could, but you won't see them crying into their champagne at the strip club, because they know that no system can do everything
     
    #166     Apr 29, 2015
  7. k p

    k p

    This is obvious to me now.

    I have seen you write about the definition of scalping before and it was quite the eye opener. So many on here though use it in a similar way that I do, which would be to get a few points as opposed to the whole move, so I just stuck with "definition" although I realize that yours is perhaps the more formal one.

    I don't think its an addiction. Its simply just that I thought that the things that I was looking at was enough to throw some money at it. One of the big mistakes I made in the past, and I guess it kept creeping up, was that I would take my losses but not my wins. Over the past few weeks, I had taken several trades for +10, and I was very diligent about cutting my losses. So I figured that as long as I kept my losses at -2, I practically only had to get 1 out of 4 trades to hit my target to balance things out, although this clearly hasn't been my result.

    There is just one huge difference that I would like to point out for those reading, because I know there are many and its important that this be put out there so that they save themselves months.

    We really have two groups of people here. Both may be profitable, but both see price completely differently. I was having a conversation in PM with another fellow member, and the conclusion really stuck with me this time. He said that you absolutely have to watch price move when you're testing.

    So in one camp, we have the Scribblers (DbPhoenix, 40D) and in the other camp, we have those traders that are strictly looking at a chart, just at the bars (NoDoji, and most others is my guess). I can see that for the past year, I've been taking advice from both camps, and this is where things get difficult. My entire desire to go with 5 sec charts has been because I'm trying to capture, to visually see that behavior on a chart. But for the static chart traders, it obviously doesn't matter what happens within in bar, all that matters is how far above some line price went, and if the next bar creates a signal of some sort depending on how high or how low this bar ends up. In essence, you already know where your trade is going to be based on what you want to see that bar do, and you realistically only have to glance at your chart every minute to see the next bar without really caring what's happening as the bar is forming. (unless of course this bar entry up being the entry bar, so you might enter your trade as the bar is forming because it has exceeded the high or low of your signal bar)

    Depending on which route you take, this drastically affects how your entire trading plan will shape up. This is why I have been so reluctant to replay any charts because if I was to follow a strictly stats based system on how the bars look, if I knew I had an edge by placing a trade one tick above the previous bar if the previous bar broke some line, then this is easy to do. But because I am in the camp where I'm watching price move and trying to figure out if there is more demand or more supply, then things get quite tricky.

    Looking at Db's chart this morning for where the trades should go yesterday is a bit nerve wracking because (well never mind the hindsight nature of the chart), but placing trades on a static chart because of how the bars look is really no different than taking the stats trading approach, which isn't really his approach though. Its simply a matter of waiting for price to leave a range, waiting for the RET on a 1 min chart, and placing the trade 1 point away. If the pace looked sluggish, you could argue that its a good reason to skip the trade, but on the chart, this isn't visible, so there is no way to say if that trade should be placed there or not. Now I realize that a chart is necessary because how else will you capture all those ticks, but its just funny to show a chart where the SLA trades go, but then be a huge proponent of behavior. Db himself gets confusing because what he really wants to teach is behavior, but he has this SLA system which is designed without behavior in mind... its simply a matter of finding ranges and placing trades above or below retracements.

    Anyway, so my whole point is that although everyone is saying the same thing in some respects about testing and not trading with real money etc, every trader is also going about this in a completely different fashion. Much of my failure till now is absolutely fear based, but I have also been bounced around a bit with the advice I've been given. Its all good, but much of it does contradict in many ways, and I've been trying to figure out what I wanna do, all the while seeing these contradictions.

    Its true that if you're going to just trade patterns and stats, then a 1 min chart is plenty. But if you are going to trade behavior, then something of a lower time frame is absolutely necessary to see the quick moves and what traders do with it. The experts might be so experienced at watching the right tick that they are happy just looking at a 1 min chart, but what happens within that 1 min bar they deem crucial, so the size of the waves they have paid particular attention to and know them, because they saw that 1 min bar form. My whole use of 5 sec charts was so that I could see these waves print, so I didn't have to remember and try to visualize them.

    Today for example, as in the chart below, I show this, along with my thinking based on what is happening. How else to get into this 20 point move up without a retrace on the 1 min chart until we finally get close to the top? Because I've been typing all this up, you'll all be happy to know that I wasn't trading, and didn't take the long, so I didn't get my 10 points. :(

    NQ-201506-GLOBEX  5 Sec   #6 2015-04-29  07_08_52.443.png

    Anyway... my price action reading skills in general are clearly lacking, perhaps it was just my late entries and tight stops, or else I would have showed consistent profits.

    Perhaps other traders have a plan to just buy once they have two up bars so they got in on the move anyway.... who knows. But I just wanted to illustrate the reason for my confusion, the reason for why I seem not much further along. I've seen been going back and forth too much, trying to take bits and pieces from both systems, and I've managed to mess both up! :(

    Ok... that's all I got.
     
    #167     Apr 29, 2015
  8. Handle123

    Handle123

    Some charts have little hash marks where I entered, but how about you do back testing and figure out if I am getting in on Breakout, retrace or close of bar, if bars are too big as I don't want to risk much more than $112.50 in markets(few exceptions), I need confirmed breakout then retrace some to be able to risk smaller, now if price pattern is showing possible S/R, I will need more of retracement so risk a 1.00, which gives better change of getting two points, it is not only the risk I am thinking about, it is giving more room for profit to happen. In S/R and H&S are breakouts. You not understanding my charts shows you have not experienced trendlines, retracements-breakouts, S/R and Price Structure(looking at chart and understanding 90% of it and WHY). Until you get much more education and study, this journal be waste of time and should you trade real time, you be bait in shark infected waters. I won't return to your journal as I don't see you helping yourself, you just groping through it.

    I can't believe you don't have a trading plan, clear sign you will never become a successful trader. Stop doing this journal until you do.
     
    #168     Apr 29, 2015
  9. harami

    harami

    retrace.jpg
     
    #169     Apr 29, 2015
  10. k p

    k p

    I don't disagree that there is retrace in there. But every 1 min bar has a retrace or some sort. Its not like price goes up by a tick on every transaction. This is why I dig into lower time frame charts, to see this retrace. Every bar on this chart you post technically has a retrace because there is some overlap between almost every bar (except two of those red down bars.. no retrace between them, but still, I'm sure within that bar is a retrace of some sort).
     
    #170     Apr 29, 2015