Im expecting once the stock turns lower again a short term low in the 34.80 range, by then it will probably be a buy again. As long as our set ups are there.
Well, the ADX is very low here, meaning we basically have no trend. Could be up, coudl be down, etc. Thats why these indicators look to go one way and then quickly change courses and then back again. Thats whats been happening for the past 45 minutes or so. Maybe not that long a time frame, but, still, we are daytrading after all, and things can change quite quickly when you arent looking. Also, volume is slowing down considerably, both sell side and buy side, this could be due to Friday afternoon, or maybe everyone is like me and waiting for an indication or a set up. Anyway, i still think we are trending down because the indicators are still close to overbought territory, even though we dont have a trend. Also, buying volume is very light, indicating a scarcity of buyers. Taht could also be attributed to Friday as I mentioned earlier. Any thoughts?
Well, it looks more and more like Friday Afternoon volume is the culprit. The bands have narrowed, as shown, indicating the same as the low trending ADX, that there basically is no trend. It seems that we will tread water for the rest of the day as volume seems to have dried up a bit, so therefore, I have ammended my expectations. Now would be a good time to scalp some ECN's since there is little volatility and risk of being caught either short or long. Looks like the gap from yesterday wont be filled today, probably early next week though. We have to keep an eye out for that.
Hi Investorsources, Although your thread is still new and just getting started... I notice that those replying to you seem to be price action only traders or at least have commented in a way that they don't use ADX/DMI indicator via not mentioning it what-so-ever in their replies. In contrast, you do use the ADX/DMI indicator (wasn't mentioned in your initial post) and since then you've been asking about opinions concerning your analysis. Anyways...the links below are discussions by traders that's using the same indicator as you: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21376 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=886180 Traders that have discussed analysis via ADX/DMI: Rickshaw_Man mhashe Truff AMT4SWA JohnnyK Some of the traders above no longer are active posters but instead just lurk. They do reply to emails and/or pm's. By the way...I like your effort in trying to get to the meat of things. Hopefully some rewarding info comes out of this for you. P.S. There's something wrong with your SMH charts (missing data) or your data vendor for those charts... Does that give you incorrect ADX/DMI readings ??? NihabaAshi
what missing data do you mean, It seems taht everythign is there. Are you referring to the rest of the days data, because if so, I have posted the chart intraday to discuss what may come later.
DMI, ADX, Bollinger Bands, Moving Averages, Japanese Candlesticks, blah, blah, blah. The best indicator I have found so far is to eye ball the stock chart and the $NYA and follow what the bid and ask is saying. If you see buyers buy, if you see sellers sell. If you are right 50% of the time but you cut your loses at the speed of light you can make a nice living.
Hi Investorsources, Here's a chart of SMH from one of my data vendors (see attachment). Compare our charts...your charts has too many buckshots price quotes. My definition of a buckshot is when its just a horizontal line (Close = Open) and there's no High nor Low price... That's an indication that your getting some price data but not all of it. You also have too many gaps on your charts which is also an indication of missing quotes. NihabaAshi
Yeah, theres no question I am missing data. But then again i am getting my data free from Quotetracker for now until I open my online accounts. So it stands to reason that the information would not be 100%. I know this too as I am watching it happen. Thanks for the pointout. Also, Man WTF was that at the end of the day. You see, you just never can tell when shit like that is going to happen. 1) Can you tell me one thing you can see in my chart or yours that woudl have let me know that this might have been coming. Somethign in the price action, because when i look at the indicators at the moment the spike began, they were showing a slightly overbought state. Not overbought, but getting there. 2) Also, when you look at the spike. At the top there is a hammer, with no change and you woudl think the trend would go negative again, but it didnt. But it was right at the end of the day, so there might not have been enough time. Somebody with some insight on this would be appreciated.