This time, I plan on trading only after observing market reactions to the announced rate. The Fed might be in a situation where if it doesn't get more aggressive and doesn't increase its rate by 50 bps, the oil market will force it to do so soon after. FOMC meetings had been non-events for several months until now. They were non-events to me because <b>1.</b> The targeted Fed Fund would increase by a widely expected quarter point each time; AND <b>2.</b> Markets would maintain their trend -- stocks up; bonds down; oil slightly up -- and provide a clear picture of a robust economy with inflation under control. But now those two elements are gone. Interpreting what markets are saying about the economy has been extremely difficult since the last CPI report and the possibility of a 50 bps rate hike has increased because of inflation risks. While gold, the euro and the stock market were dropping, oil refused to follow and is now showing signs of returning to its previous record highs. I expect to see one of the following scenarios: <b>Case A.</b> We get a quarter point rate increase; stocks and bonds are relieved and go up but oil is also going up, at a rapid pace. In this case, I would short bonds. Between bonds and stocks, I prefer to short bonds because of the trend. <b>Case B.</b> We get a half point increase and stocks are going down. At that point, oil would probably drop and signal an opportunity to get long stocks. Now, for those who don't know me, why imagining those scenarios instead of just waiting to see what the markets have to tell us? To put it simply, if markets react differently in terms of direction or magnitude to what I was expecting, they will indicate that I'm out of touch and should do nothing and that's very good information to have.