Trading the Indices on Fundamentals

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by FXtrader8911, Jun 18, 2019.

  1. I mostly trade the Indices, US, Europe & Asia and US mega-cap companies (Apple, Amazon, etc), this is what I found to give the most consistent results of all asset classes I've traded (I no longer trade Currencies). If you are an index trader then let's exchange strategy, systems and market views. Perhaps the thread can even be used to post real-time entry and exits.

    I trade on fundamentals, but views and discussions from technicians will be appreciated and helpfull.

    My way of trading for the last 6 years is to study price movements relevant to world events for the day, I then compare the symmetry to 1-day charts to predict the next session's targets for entry & exit. In essance, my orders are placed before the session and remain un-change unless new factors are introduced. In simple terms, fundamentals set whether I will enter longs or shorts, swings in sentiment give me the entry dips or rallies and t/p levels are determined by symmetry. Positions are kept until the objective is reached or until the fundamentals change.

    If there is interest and participation in the thread then I'll post some of my live trades, end of day results and short comments on market views setting the current strategy.
    Darc, serun, derbeurze and 10 others like this.
  2. Overnight Tuesday we had quite a rally, starting with the HSI over dampened political tensions, it flowed on to the EU adding momentum with Draghi's speach and continues through to the US boosted by Trump's tweet. A host of good news boosted sentiment everywhere, several of my limit shorts got filled. Now we wait for wrecking ball Powell to see what he has to say, this could boost or deflate sentiment.

    Many are expressing pitty for Powel for the difficult call he needs to make, however, if the bozo was astute he would not acknowledge external opposing preassures but rather admit making a policy error for his Dec hight and reverse that for reason of correcting an error. But he's neither astute nor has the mental capacity for thinking of such a way out, so nothing will be done, and just like all Fed's before his, he'll wait until it's too late to take action and so the seeds for recession planted in Sep & Dec will probably bloom. The good news is that if the Fed creates yet another recession out of thin air as it has done several times before, and this recession falls under Trump's watch, it will be shallow and short-lived as Trump will bellow fire & fury at Powell with such intensity that he'll finally resign or at very least Trump will demote him from chair to board member. The miracle that Congress starts talking about abolishing the Fed might also happen.

    The ASX has just hit a 10 year high, the posative sentiment has arrived in AU also.
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
    Darc likes this.
  3. Giddiyup


    You can be so right that you're wrong. Timing is just as important as diagnosis.
    Darc likes this.
  4. Indeed and even more so if shorting an index as that price might never be seen again, but for a long position, 100 years of history tells you that the probability of achieving the objective will happen if enough time is given. Studying symmetry is what gives an indication on whether the timing to enter is correct.
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
    Darc and murray t turtle like this.
  5. Facebook announced its plan to introduce a fixed digital currency, many expressed surprise that despite the announcement, FB price fell during a day that everything was rallying. My surprise was that people were surprised, an announcement with a plan to guarantee FB would not sell our private information might have done the trick but introducing a Digital currency that one buys with real money, gets sent digitally across borders then gets reconverted to real money again..?.. doesn't PayPal, Box and many others do that already? What's the big deal other than now also needing to trust Zuckerberg with our bank account information, and the slightly silly name chosen (I can't help mentally adding majora or minora when I hear that name)
    Darc and ttsmarkets like this.
  6. Sprout


    It's an attempt at co-opting the ideals and vision of the cryptocurrency movement with it's centralized design and pegged to a basket of inflationary currencies.

    Young folks are migrating from FB which is also the market that cryptocurrencies appeal to.

    Bullish for Bitcoin.
  7. QUOTE="Sprout, post: 4878030, member: 488262"]It's an attempt at co-opting the ideals and vision of the cryptocurrency movement with it's centralized design[/QUOTE]
    By centralized I take it you mean that it will be embedded into the FB product to attract uses back to its platform? I think Zuckerberg still hasn't got it, many left FB because they don't trust that FB is capable of securing data (the reality it is that anyone that pays has access to any of the data) so why would a crypto, being one of many available (some also fixed), draw these people back to give even more personal information? Ever since the Cambridge Analitica episode FB credibility went down each time Zuckerberg opened his mouth to apologize, promise it will never happen again but then it did, many times over. FB is a broken company, repairable only by Zuckerberg's departure, not a good investment till then.

    On the Indices, Asia & the ASX had a good run (+2.3% on the HSI), however, the European futures are slightly down while the US futures are dead flat, I think in the absence of a tweet or two, most participants will tread-water till we hear from Powell. It is likely that many will have their finger on the sell button if Powell sounds less accommodative than expected or if he gives a pessimistic opinion on the economy. Hardly anyone expects a rate cut this month but words will be sufficient to drive markets, failure of Powell to speak clearly enough to convince participants that a cut will come very soon will start recession talk and profit taking. Keep in mind that Powell is a hawk and a flip-flop so there is more risk of a sell-off than a continued rally.
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2019
    Darc likes this.
  8. cvds16


    This is sooo wrong ... but narrow focused people keep on repeating this like it is some kind of mantra. Just look at the Nikkei index: long Japanese players are still waiting after 30 years to get to break even again ...
  9. Sprout


    It's based on inflationary dynamics, not a distributed blockchain and encapsulates centralized control. Your comments about Powell is exactly why crypto appeals to a new culture. Money based on math not politics.
  10. %%
    All most always true for US ETFs, like SPY. That + 200 + years of US stock market upTrends. NOT a prediction, not long TSLA.:D:D, :D:D:D:D:D:D
    #10     Jun 19, 2019