Was looking at markets that do well with increasing inflation yesterday. These caught my eyes. What has been your personal strategy?
I have always believed that you are more likely to see a higher return investing in yourself than investing in the market. During the last recession, I started a small business that I expected would maybe make $10K in its lifetime. Lifetime profit hit ~1.5 million this month. That may not be anything for you guys, but I like it. Along with this and other investments, not even talking about my consulting income, I think that I have prepared myself pretty well: even if shit hits the fan, I have income producing assets that are necessary in any economy, assuming the apocalypse does not occur. When the next recession does occur (the personal signals that I track have been triggered so I began preparing this year), I will gleefully repeat the process rather than pay attention. In fact, I'm waiting... waiting for it to happen because it's so much fun. I believe that I am much better prepared this time financially. Wish me luck.
Good going. Would you share the nature of the small biz you started? And what kind of consulting do you do?
I went long the bear (natural) Jan/Mar 2900/3000 diagonal from 68. I sold the thing at an average price of 101. I sold some spreads as high as 113. I am looking to re-enter again for the Q1-Q3 technical recession. At one point it was 35% of my (and managed) net liq. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-spx-has-hit-a-cyclical-top.325108/
Pretty simple strategy. Do exactly what you didn't do in 2008, the last great recession. Sell every depreciating risky asset you have - that includes every stock you own, which includes your home(s) or any non-income producing real estate. Maybe keep your bond holdings for the valuable stable income you will need, but even those will be risky due to the accompanying default risk cycle. Put everything into cash and have the coffers full for the next great firesale in stocks and real estate. Rent if you have to. When the bottom falls out and everyone is capitulating and puking everything they own, turn around and buy everything you used to own at a 75% to 90% discount for what you sold it 2 or 3 yrs earlier. Just like 2010-2011 you will be able to name your price on any risky asset, because you have what everyone wants during an armageddon, "the sky is falling economy"...cash. Let history repeat itself, but this time don't be the one left holding the bag. Don't try and catch a falling knife, but when sentiment and fundamentals starts to turn, open the coffers and buy any quality risky asset at bargain basement prices with open arms.