Trading the E-Minis with 5-18 day holds.

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by ElectricSavant, Dec 6, 2003.

  1. Hello folks,

    As you know I have a Full-Time Day Job here in California. I do not have charts and I found a broker that will accommodate me with my low volume. I find that the only way I can trade Futures is to hold 5-18 days as I cannot follow during the day.

    I can get candlestick charts with a delay at the CME website for daily bars and if I have time sometime during the day I can peek at the 15 min delayed candlesticks.

    I have subscribed to a newsletter for the last 2 years and find their commentary helpful. Included with this newsletter is very insightful charts with commentary and TA of several correlating and divergent charts. This helps me to stay current every evening with the markets and take the temperature of the climate.

    Included with this newsletter is a nifty signal for my 5-18 day holds. I have followed it for several months and now trade with it live. The signals arrive by email to be entered at the close of the signal day.

    The ability to trade a system is a disciplinary exercise in following the signals. It gets very boring waiting between signals. I have noticed that when I am short the market can bounce back and forth during the hold time (5-18 days) and I see many opportunities to "add to" at better than signal prices. I have confidence in the signal (85% winrate due to the longer type of hold time) so it really does not bother me when the trade turns against me....rather its an opportunity to "add to"....some might say this is a losing mentality...but I think it is signal and methodology dependant.

    I have discovered that the signal service has turned into a sort of high probability directional indicator for me and I find myself going to the chart during the middle of my work day to look for any opportunities. Is this an incorrect way to use a swing signal "always in" reversing pivoting system like this?

    I have discovered something I named, "pulling a tick". This is what I do when I have time....say I'm in 10 day short....and I am in the money and it has dipped in my direction more than the avg win to avg loss ratio. If I exited early it would not hurt the stats right? And if I got back in at say 1 tick or better when it swings back up then I am still participating in the signal. If the market never comes back up I am risking not getting the full potential of the signal but I am not risking a loss because I am flat and took the profit early.

    Michael B.
     
  2. A trader whom was better than I told me that trading Futures is all in the balance.....I never could figure out what that meant.

    I think I am beginning to understand that there is no losing position. It is just to pick your direction and balance it with offsetting trades or pyramiding.

    If you are wrong in your direction....you will discover it fast...if your quick with numbers and observant.

    Michael B.
     
  3. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    open a second account, take a counter original trade to weather the temp draw down (hopefully), go flat when it resume the original trend.
     
  4. I think that with the contracting ranges it makes more and more sense to go after bigger 30-50 pts swings in NQ. That means staying with your position for a few days at least.

    I have just started doing it, but out of the 4 last times, 2 times I got sidetracked by IB technical problems missing out on big moves. Well, live and learn, time to get adjusted to IB's ever getting worse and keep on plowing and not letting myself get pissed off too much by that. Still, IB is getting more and more inventive with their problems so sometimes it's hard not to get carried away.
     
  5. about the signals? What's the source? A website link would be enough.

    TIA.
     
  6. Its all a mind exercise.....going flat or 2 opposing trades in 2 accts...schizophrenia at its best..

    Michael B.


     
  7. Hello Electron,

    Yeah I picked the NQ too...its spikey which I like....I wonder if this can be done with the DAX?

    Michael B.



     
  8. I do not feel comfortable advertising a signal service in ET. I will post the link, but I cannot comment too much on it....as I do not want to provide advertising for them. I have been warned and do not want to get into it. I value my membership to this community.

    http://www.stockmarkettimer.com

    I do not recommend them and I mainly read their newsletter. I am not a big believer in signal services, but this is more than that.

    Michael B.





     
  9. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    you must be the most lucky investor since you found something that make you money.
     
  10. Well.....ok you can call me that, because its you. :) But I have not been called an investor in years.

    Its making money so far.......but as with all stategies it could end tomorrow.....

    Michael B.



     
    #10     Dec 7, 2003