Trading the Debt ceiling.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Jul 30, 2011.

  1. S2007S


    I want to know everyones break down on what you think the chances are with the passing of raising the debt ceiling come August 2nd 2011.

    There is another vote tonight at 1am, and I believe if this doesnt go through there is another vote happening before the Asia markets open on Sunday night.

    Does anyone really think they wont have it done by then?

    So this is my prediction:

    70% chance it goes through tonight. 1am Vote time!

    95% chance it goes through before the opening Monday or just around mid day on Monday!

    99.9% A deal gets done either small or large by Tuesday August 2nd.

    So what I am saying is that a deal is going to be put through by Tuesday night, this is the game they have been playing, they arent going to have the US default come next week, that is out of question, do you really think they want to see stocks drop 5-10% next week, No!
  2. Reid Postpones Vote on his Debt Plan to Sunday Afternoon

    By Major Garrett
    Updated: July 30, 2011 | 10:31 p.m.
    July 30, 2011 | 10:14 p.m.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced late Saturday the first glint of hope in the debt-ceiling saga, delaying a scheduled 1:01 a.m. Sunday cloture vote to give congressional and administration negotiators more time to reach a compromise.

    Reid moved the vote to 1 p.m. Sunday and did so with no Republican objections -- a sign the GOP shared Reid's new-found optimism about a potential breakthrough. Moving the vote without objection marked the first unified parliamentary move in a day fraught with just that.

    "I'm optimistic there will be no short-term arrangement whatsoever," Reid said on the floor of the Senate around 10 p.m. Saturday night. "I'm also confident that reasonable people from both parties should be able to reach an agreement . I believe we should give them time to do so."

    Negotiators told National Journal that progress was made on the toughest remaining issue -- a so-called trigger to ensure that spending cuts of up to $2.4 trillion would, in fact, be instituted by a special committee the debt-ceiling bills in Congress would establish.

    Reid said it was necessary to delay the scheduled early-morning vote to give negotiators more time. Congressional sources said there were slender hopes that a deal could be struck before Asian stock markets open starting at 5 p.m. EDT.

    Following the movement of the vote to later Sunday, Reid adjourned the Senate.
  3. S2007S


    A deal is going to be put forth before the market opens, this is good for at least a 3% rally come Monday, get ready for EXTREME UPSIDE when this passes because IT WILL PASS BEFORE AUGUST 2nd 2011!

    White House, Republicans Strike Tenative Deal To Raise Debt Ceiling

    July 30, 2011 10:39 PM

    ABC News' Jonathan Karl reports:

    ABC News has learned that Republicans and the White House have struck a tenative deal to raise the debt ceiling before the Aug. 2 deadline. It's not done yet, but here is the framework of the tentative deal they have worked out, according to a source familiar with the negotiations:

    Debt ceiling increase of up to $2.8 trillion
    Spending cuts of roughly $1 trillion
    Special committee to recommend cuts of $1.8 trillion (or whatever it takes to add up to the total of the debt ceiling increase)
    Committee must make recommendations before Thanksgiving recess
    If Congress does not approve those cuts by late December, automatic across-the-board cuts go into effect, including cuts to Defense and Medicare.
  4. <a href=""><img class="embeddedObject" src="" width="1510" height="1355" border="0" /></a>

  5. S2007S



    DONE DEAL!!!!


  6. Lol I have the slight feeling you are long. There isn't a done deal yet at all. There is going to be a vote at 1pm, and indeed it is very likely anything will be agreed before asian markets open which means it is even more unlikely anything would have been agreed by the time US futures open, which means they should gap down significantly at the open.
  7. POSITIVE NEWS, however shortem move. long termgovt, contraction spending will not help
  8. Humpy


    sack the lot of them and get a new system

    In all honesty looking in from without , I would rate their performance somewhere between pathetic to bloody useless

    I would have more confidence in their leadership of The Free World if they swopped places with the New York garbage collectors !!
  9. designed by plan
  10. S2007S


    Jim Abrams, Associated Press, On Sunday July 31, 2011, 10:16 am EDT

    WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said Sunday that negotiators were "very close" to sealing a deal that would cut spending by some $3 trillion while averting the first federal default in the nation's history.

    McConnell, appearing on CNN's "State of the Union," said he hoped to soon be able to present to his fellow Republicans an agreement "that they'll consider supporting." That agreement would include raising the debt ceiling through next year's elections in two stages and creating a joint committee of members of Congress that would look at tax and entitlement reform.

    Democrats were more cautious in saying that the end of weeks of bitter debate was almost over. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., a member of the Democratic leadership, told CNN that while "there is no final agreement," there was a sense of relief that the two sides were finally working on a compromise plan.
    #10     Jul 31, 2011