does anyone here trade in the afternoon during lunch hours from 11am-13:00est? i always see a lot of trades set up, but they are usually false, so i never trade
Those are the times that I only seem to get myself into trouble..It is better just get away from your computer M
Try to compare days where the noon hour is making the day (so far) high/low vs. those days where the noon hour is moving in the middle of the day (so far) range. The prior one is more tradable.
...being a morning person I am having trouble visualizing this. Do you expect continuation or reversal when the noon is the high/low of the day? Easy enough to backtest, it sounds like. Thanks. - Mike
Well for cryin' out loud! What a great idea Lawrence! Thank you. Every ES and NQ trader needs to be checking their charts pronto. Maybe I am the last to know, but I have never ever heard anyone suggest this. Usually the suggestion is, "avoid lunch like the plague." Nice work Lawrence.
Its a bit of common sense here. e.g. low at 10 am (ET) then slow but clean move to high of day so far at around noon. - you will obviously get some sort of divergence no matter it is your favourite oscillator or $TICK, etc. - the move is getting old as its already travelled in a single direction for 2 hours - now, the question is - how nervous are the longs vs. the shorts - if the high made around noon was a test of an important high, the longs are more nervous most of the time, thus a slide of a few ES points is easier because more longs are willing to at least sell part of their position. - is that high of the day? it will all depend on how this small sell off goes
Thanks. I still know friends (locals) who love to scalp the lunch hour provided the setup of the day match their criteria. The lunch hour is definitely more whippy but when the price is touching key price levels during lunch hour - more traders will skip lunch thus making it more tradable. Today is a great example of lunch hour turn around Lawrence
...do you have a particular issue in mind when you think of this setup? IMO, trading is more fetishistic than sex (we tend to get off better on the same thing every time), which is why I asked. Thanks. - Mike
I was in the middle of a chart review when I saw your question. Take a look at 9/5 on the NQ. Turns on a dime at 12:00. Why? Partly because it takes demand to push price higher, and everybody's going to lunch. The probabilities, therefore, are for chop or a decline. The fifth was a particularly good day because it sank for nearly two hours for 25pts.
Incidentally, it used to be that you could set your watch by the 12:30 reversal. But don't bet on it anymore.