Neo hr, Suggest you go to Tony Oz web site and download his calculator....then go through some of his set ups and actually plug in some of the numbers that he uses for examples....this should help you in seeing how he derives his stop losses, target numbers etc....once you have to start crunching these numbers, you will have to begin to understand what it is that he is doing and thinking and the thought processes involved....in addition, the calculator which he so graciously offers for free just about forces you to go through a good correct procedure prior to entering a stock position.
Vinigar / Tony Oz Interested about the calculator - went to download it and got "Sorry, but you can not use the mailto script from: http://www.stockjunkie.com/ozcalc.htm This mailto script is only available to sites hosted with EarthLink Network, Inc. Call 1-800-511-2044 or visit: http://www.earthlink.net/business/ to sign up for an EarthLink web site. " Guess I'll just use Excel for now then... coops
coops, You may want to email Tony directly at: tony@tonyoz.com He will be able to help you get the calculator, password needed to install it, etc.
My strategy is basically a managed swing system where I use 30-60 minute bars to enter/exit positions during day. I determine my trade orientation (long/short) by daily S/R (previous days' H/L). I then trade only long in uptrend/short in downtrend. I used to do the straight swing trade where you hold until opposite support is broken and this was profitable but took large intraday hits. I then noticed taking profits when intraday support was broken was even more profitable. I did some testing comparing both methods and found intraday management 50%-300% more profitable than straight swing trading alone over a months time. The hardest part of the day for me is the first 30 minutes where volatility can cause fakeouts, but also hurt you bad if you don't react. Once I survive this I ride the wave or wait for a reversal. If the day is choppy and sporadic, I just get out and place buy sell stops at the high/low of the day to catch breakouts. I normally try to take 10 positions at once, which seems hard to manage, but its actually pretty easy after the first 30 minutes. On a dull day, usually 1 or 2 of these 10 stocks is making a move and paying for losses from the other stocks. Once in awhile, all 10 get caught up in a big market move and I hit a home run. I always trade the same basket of stocks, occasionally swapping for new ones. I look for stocks above a million shares per day and that move smoothly, not sporadic on a daily basis. This helps catch multiple day moves without reversals all the time. I've been trading off and on for 10 years, but recently started managing a small account for a group of people in my office in addition to my personal account. Since this account is already public, I thought I'd show it here so you can see that its possible to make a decent return swing trading. I've never invested more than half of the account yet so the actual percentage return to date is close to 45%. I've taken time off since the starting point, so the actual days represented are a little more than two months. Starting this week I've doubled my share volume to use the whole account. http://www.timingcentral.com/
ddefina, What criteria do you use for your portfolio of stocks? Do you select from sectors that move contrary to each other? Do the stocks move contrary to each other? Why 10 stocks, isn't it easier and wouldn't you achieve the same objective with 5 stocks?
I use 10 stocks strictly from a risk management point of view. My maximum loss is 4% X 10% position = .004% risk per position to the portfolio. I would love to use only 5 stocks, and may go to that eventually, but am trying for a smooth as possible equity curve. My entries and exits are all numerically defined and are executed with stops, so logistically its not that hard to manage. Also, not all 10 positions are taken if they don't meet my entry criteria for the day, so sometimes I may only have 3 positions at 10% each. I do have several industries represented in my 10 stocks, mostly Nasdaq, but some NYSE. Here is my recent portfolio: LWIN ZRAN AEIS MSCC CLS JBL QSFT EMLX LSI CREE NTIQ
Coops, I use Road Runner and was reading the post entitled......My plays for Monday as I promised Tony......there, I just clicked on the link Tony provided in his reply...its the same as what you used...I did not have any problems...I don't know where this Earthlink stuff came from...maybe Road Runner is affiliated with them somehow and I just don't know it...anyway...try what Magna said and email Tony