heya scriabnop23 im going back into lurk mode again for 2 years, about once every 2 years I post something only to see ET is worse than ever. I do like logging in here though to read, makes me all warm and fuzzy inside to see im trading against the likes of azkubar, dayX and Co. too stupid to make money when its put right in front of their noses, so imagine what they do on their own time signing out, yeeeeehhhaawwwwwwwwwwwww
You gotta be kidding me. This guy makes a "call" and the S&P moves 60 points against it, then rebounds to hit a 30 point objective. Then he's called on it and says, oh, I used options. And you think this is credible? Is it any wonder the liquidity pool is never at any risk of a declining membership.
A nice reply? You made a cheap insult regarding my intelligence, called me a 'lost cause' and then ran away with your tail between your legs by putting me on ignore. Not to worry, pretty soon school will be back in session and you'll have to do your homework instead of playing the fool on trading forums.
First of all, I'm not trying to be argumentive with you because you do have a valid point about 60 point retracement prior to the 30 point reward being reached. Secondly, all he did was point out a market tendency via generalistic concept without any trade management info. Thus, we are required to do our own research to determine how to trade the tendency. To support my statement about the generalistic concept... He then said the following. With that said, he may not trade the way of a 60 point risk and a 30 point reward because I sure don't. Many successful traders will take Long and Short positions until the tendency has completed - 30 point objective. Further, I know a few traders that exclusively trade market seasonal tendencies (they make a good living) and they do not trade the tendency one direction as explained below. For example, using jasonjm market tendency and using the Trading Hammer's - revisited thread about Hammer patterns. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=52880 The following quick stats would have been generated within that market tendency via how I would have personally traded it. (Although this is hindsight analysis...it has merits because the Trading Hammer's -revisited thread was written prior to jasonjm discussion of this tendency). Here's an example of my trading approach for trading ES market tendencies. Exchange Traded Fund SPY generates the Hammer trader signals in ES Emini Futures and managing the trade via ES only after the position entry via the 15min chart: July 31st - Bearish Dark Inverted Hammer pattern ES Short @ 1045am est (1485.50) August 1st - Cover Short @ 1000am est (1457.75) Result = +27.75 ES points August 6th - Bullish White Hammer pattern ES Long @ 1000am est (1445.50) August 8th - Exit Long @ 1030am est (1497.00) Result = +51.50 ES points Total Points during Market Tendency Result = +79.25 ES points All exits were done only when price traded through the range of the key trading day of the VIX tendency that got confirmed on July 27th Friday. Why? The key trading day that confirmed the tendency is now active becomes a s/r zone because it is a key price action. My point with the above, when trading market seasonal tendencies you are trading the price action (Long or Short) until the tendency completes. If the tendency is Bullish... Use position size management to control your risk exposure. Normal to large size position on Long positions while small size position only for Short positions. If the tendency is Bearish... Use position size management to control your risk exposure. Normal to large size position on Short positions while small size position only for Long positions. Knowing the above statements about position size mangaement... You can now go an adjust the above ES trade results via what you consider to be a small size position and a normal to large size position. Once again, jasonjm did say do as you please and that's how I normally trade market seasonal tendencies. However, in reality, I would have never taken that trade until I had my own chance to do my own statistical analysis via my personal trading approach. Simply, there's much more to it than just a 60 point retracements and a 30 point objective. Thanks jasonjm and I will do further research on your tendency because market seasonal tendencies are key aspects of my swing trading and position trading even though I only discuss day trading at EliteTrader.com If the tendency has merits via my personal approach to trading... I will trade it the next time it appears. Mark (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) Japanese Candlestick term
Agree with you on the above points. I was just pointing out BS, and there was ample amounts in his posts. First, he missed the VIX divergence when the indexes made new highs prior to the selloff. It was pretty glaring too, and something I pointed out in previous posts. I also posted a monthly bond/stock chart that confirmed the potential for some trouble ahead. It wasn't intended be be a "top is here" post even though it worked out that way. In any event, you'd think a self proclaimed VIX expert could see this. Second, he called a bottom more than once and both times the markets tanked in the next day or two. Third, he didn't "call" any of the down move, just yelled "the bottom is here, the bottom is here" as soon as he saw an up day during the dump. Fourth, there wasn't any detail in his 'calls' about entries, stops or anything at all to do with option strategies. It wasn't until he was called on those that the "I bought a call" nonsense arrived. Also note that he didn't claim to have bought a put (or some other strategy, and there are many) to protect his long position. And last but certainly not least, we have the childish responses to my questions. Trading has nothing to do with predicting nor are you ever going to make a living risking twice (or more) than you're trying to make. Plus most traders can't sit through a 6 tick retracement let alone a 60 point retrace when they first make the transition from play money to real money. It takes a lot of time and practice to acquire real money skills, and in the beginning you're very much at risk of, shall we say, having an accident. I know because it was that way for me and everyone else I've worked with over the years.
His original post called a move from 1458 close on ES. There was only 20 pts of downside from there. Upside was 40 pts. (low = 1437, target = 1501). 1:2 risk reward.
but isn't it statistics that reamed the financial markets in last month because they could not forsee the black swan.
interesting point... which gets to a philosophical approach: most trading systems (manual or not) are derived from some form of statistically analyzing things and coming to conclusions. So you are basically saying that trading systematically may be pointless.
someone wins the lottery every week. the seemingly impossible always happens. problem with markets is that the hit becomes systemic and trickles down to everything/everyone. a "plague phenomenon"