Trading Silver Commodimetrically

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Argent, Aug 11, 2011.

  1. Argent


    Should I have bought below spot $35? I did. Should I have sold above spot $45? I didn't. In neither case did I decide quantitatively. I could buy only when it was "too cheap" or sell when it was "too dear." I recently became inwardly embarrassed that silver is the only investment vehicle which I analyzed qualitatively. So I set out to find a better way. But in the present paradigm of dramatic deviation from historical technical analysis norms, I failed to find a reliable method. Indicators failed me. As did oscillators. Retraces deserve no mention. So I started thinking commodimetrically, for lack of a better description. I asked myself, what do "too cheap" and "too dear" mean quantitatively for silver? The attached chart is the visual interface to the system I developed. The underlying equations have called a buy for the past four days. I will post improvements to the model as evolving results dictate.