Discussion in 'Trading' started by thunderinvalley, Jun 25, 2006.
how can you trade the trading range for bread & butter yet anticipate the breakout for the jetski?
If you consistently know which is which then you become rich.....
thank you, but this much i have surmised.
and, after much painstaking introspection, i have concluded that DO want to be rich.
so, please, tell me how?
- analyse the market you are trading. Read chart by chart, and you may notice they have something in common before they break out. When you spot their commons, you are one step towards billionaire!
- even if you can't predict the breakout, so what? Unless the breakout is too fast and too serious, you can always reverse your positions when the breakout DOES occur!
- how about if the breakout happens to be false? So what? Unless the retracement is too fast and too serious, you can always keep your losses small by cutting your losses fast.
- how about if you miss a real breakout? So what? There're always breakout(s) every day. Miss that one. Catch another one.
- after all, probably no one will give you definite answers to these questions. First, they still don't know how to. Second, even if they know, they would not be so generous to give out their days or weeks of work to you for free. That's why most people just say "go and find answers by yourself".
My two cents only.
Don't get too angry if our opinions differ.
Getting rich is really pretty simple...It requires three components. Savings, Investment, and Time. Take a page from Sir John Templeton on this one. You need to spend less than you earn and invest the difference. If you do 20%, you'll meet your goals, 30% is much better, and Sir John himself would save upwards of 50%. There you have it, the key to getting rich.
The key to achieving your objective is identifying what type of market you are in first, and then apply the appropriate trading strategy to that market. Remember this, there is always a bull market somewhere.
I like saving more.
The more you save, the more you invest. The more you invest/trade, the faster you get rich. *
*: It's true only if you know how to invest/trade properly.
Bro, I've been knocking my head against the wall on this very issue all weekend. Friday I bought ES early in the 53's. I doubled up in the 57's looking for a push into the low 60's. Looked like a breakout above 58. What happened. A breakdown! to new lows. I then come back long again and this time I get out on a 58 handle and within 10 minutes ES is trading 64's. I can find no technical "difference" between failure at 10:30 and explosion at 12:10 except there were clearly more folks short after the break to new lows, which in turn let the market loose to the upside on covering. We know in retrospect that few new longs entered hence the ultimate rejection of those highs. Any thoughts I have I'll be quick to share with you.....
The move at about 12:10 was a classic bear trap/continuation pattern. If I were still trying to achieve my goal for the day I might have been a victim; however, there were warning signs (divergence, etc...), but more importantly after it breached 1258 I would have surely reversed to the upside.
I think what is lacking for some of your folks is an appropriate context in which to view the action. Its pretty clear to me, that whatever method you use, it doesn't give you any psychological support in your decision making process. So essentially you are lost and guessing.
Here is a chart using an LRC for the last 20+ bars. Just take a quick look at what it is saying.
I don't know about you folks. Some are traders. Some not, but it is pretty clear to me where we are headed. I have been watching rallies and then selling on the failure.
Here is another chart of the same market using 60 min candles
You can see that the market opened and immediately tested previous support (long stem candle just to the left). You had the rally up and then two failure candles, which represent 2 hours during which the market could not break to new highs.
For me, that is a failure trade, and the signal is obvious
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