Trading Quiz I - Archive

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by axeman, Nov 14, 2002.

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  1. Ok... after discussing this with inandlong, we decided
    that I would start with some trading scenarios.

    Here is how it will work.

    I will post a 5 min chart, with some basic indicators on it,
    containing 4 days of data, along with the matching
    futures data. NYSE stocks.

    The 5th day will be partially shown, and you will
    be LONG or SHORT on the closing price of the last
    candle you see.

    Anyone who is interested should reply, and tell us
    what their stop and target price is, and their reasoning
    behind it.

    In the case that neither is hit, the closing price of the
    day will be your exit price.

    After everyone has placed their "bets". I will reveal the
    full chart, and everyone will calculate their profit/loss.

    All bets will be 100 shares for simplicity, with 2 cent
    round trip commish, IB style. Zero slippage.


    Here is a boring chart to get us started.
    You are LONG at 59.74 (the last candle on the lower chart)

    Please stay HONEST and dont go and try to figure out
    which stock the chart is showing.

    Now PLACE YOUR BETS! :D

    I would also like to try a multiday "swing" version of this,
    if this little experiment turns out to be fun.

    peace

    axeman
     
  2. OK... here it is as a gif. Good suggestion GG.
    Lojze, let me know if this is ok.

    peace

    axeman
     
  3. Reversals are not part of the rules :D

    But you may immediately exit with a 2 cent commish loss
    if you wish.

    peace

    axeman


     
  4. RIGHT... this is a random entry.
    You are LONG... you may NOT go short.

    You may immediately exit with a 2 cent commish cost,
    if you think being LONG is completely idiotic.

    peace

    axeman



     
  5. For now... to keep things simple, we are not going
    to do partials. Bt its interesting... so maybe ill switch
    to that later depending on the load.
    Im pretty busy.

    peace

    axeman



     
  6. And the results are
    -------------------------------------
    Corallus: +94 cents :cool:
    El Cubano: +74 cents
    Sanjuro: +74 cents
    NoviceTrader: +69 cents
    macal425: +49 - by trailing stop
    uptik2000: +44 cents
    JPB: +29 cents
    Gordon Gekko: +23 cents
    axeman: 0 ( lets see who cant beat me :) )
    wdbaker: -2 cents
    inandlong: -26 cents
    mike s: - 26 cents



    These results include 2 cent commish.


    Please note: If you use TRAILING stops, I will not give
    you the benefit of the doubt if the candles do not give
    me enough information to determine if your target or
    stop would have been hit first. :)

    The details are below. Please check your own math.

    peace

    axeman

    ------------------------

    uptik2000
    59.60 stop
    60.20 target
    RESULT: 60.20 - 59.74 - 2 cents = +44 cents

    JPB
    stop: 59.45
    target: 60.05
    RESULT: 60.05 - 59.74 - 2 = +29 cents

    Gordon Gekko
    stop: 59.69
    target: 59.99
    RESULT: 59.99 - 59.74 - 2 = +23 cents

    wdbaker
    Asked to be stopped out
    -0.02

    El Cubano
    stop 59.00
    target: 60.50 - 59.74 -2 = +74
    RESUL: +74

    NoviceTrader
    Stop 58.95
    Target 60.45 - 59.74 -2 = +69

    Corallus
    stop:59.35
    target:60.70 - 59.74 -2 = +94

    macal425
    Target 60.50
    Trail hit at:: 60.25 - 59.74 -2 = +49
    Stop 59.40
    Stop to b/e @ 60.10 and trail 0.35.

    mike s
    target 61.35
    stop 58.95
    result: 59.50 @ the close
    59.50 - 59.74 - 2 = -26

    inandlong
    Stop 58.25
    MOC
    result: 59.50 - 59.74 -2 = -26

    Sanjuro
    Target 60.50 - 59.74 -2 = +74
    Stop 59.50
     
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