All this sounds nice, but is misleading. As somebody who has intensely studied both gambling and trading systems, I strongly disagree. Professional gambling is little different to professional trading. The requirements, the rules, discipline etc are all the same. I'm not saying that trading is like gambling. I'm in fact saying gambling is a lot easier than trading and your chances of success are remarkably higher. In fact, the initial edge of a casino bank can be literally miniscule compared to the scary edges of a market maker. The great thing about professional gambling is that you don't have competition as such. Nobody competes with you, you have no time pressure, you're in a relaxing atmosphere and the house pays for you to stay longer. All you have to do is overcome the vic (house edge), that's it. While in pro gambling even your initial chances of success can be very close to 50%, in trading this is not the case. The moment you enter a trade, you have already lost. Next, you must fight to get back all those commissions, slippage, you name it. Not to even mention the possibility of being on the wrong side of the trade. Trading is the toughest business out there. In pro gambling, you don't have to battle, don't stress, aren't under timepressure and all you have to do is follow your system, and you will "become the bank". The downside to pro gambling is that the "broker" is called "pit boss" and he doesn't like winners. They monitor who is winning a lot and if you don't have good strategies to make yourself look like every other notorious loser (this includes losing deliberately quite frequently), you will soon have the waiter approach you with "Sorry, sir. The charge to your room has been declined" etc. They have many ways of telling you to piss off. No matter how welcoming they may seem and how happy they look when you win - They -hate- winners. The pit boss makes his living out of commissions from his pit. If the pit loses, he doesn't earn. That's why he's right on your case. Plus, they have cameras, electronic monitoring, very sexy girls and lots of free alcohol to distract you. They also employ people called "shills" which they have sit down with you in order to befriend you and figure out what you're doing. This alone should tell anybody that pro gambling is indeed a danger to the casinoes. They don't like it. OK. Let me put up some facts: The worst game to play is definitely Keno, where the vic is an a staggering 17%+. This game cannot be won, even by pro gamblers. Games that can be won (and are used specifically by pros) include Live Poker, BlackJack, Craps, Baccarat. Anything that is a "closed universe". However, even roulette can be won with a system, however the long-term rewards are so small that it isn't worth it. I have a roulette system that does that, which despite the fact that it wouldn't lose money, is very effective if you have to wait for i.e. the Bac table to clear or simply want a break. My personal favourite is Baccarat. It has the lowest vic of all to overcome, with as little as 1.47%. Beats the crap out of day trading. I think in Blackjack the vic is ~1.9%, Craps 2.2% etc... not sure now. Bac to Baccarat: There are countless Baccarat systems out there. You can even develop your own. The game is so simple it's stupid, and you can focus on a simple system rather than having to count etc. The key to success in Bac (and any other pro gambling) is money management, money management, money management. And discipline and patience. Sounds familiar? You bet. Good bac systems return between 5-12 units per shoe, that means if you're playing with $10-chips, you can make $50-120 per shoe played. That's an average. Sometimes you also win 60 units in a single shoe, and sometimes you will lose up to 30, and your maximum allowed drawdown per session is 100. But all this doesn't matter. Patience, and in the long run you will win. Do not be discouraged by losses. If you have extensively backtested your system (such as on the commercially availabe Zumma tester books), you know it will work. If you play the 12 unit-system, you can double your bankroll every 78 hours, that is 13 days if you play 6h a day. You double your betsize everytime you triple your bankroll. It doesn't take long until you play with $100 chips. Beats the crap out of trading. The problem is that, although profitable, it is a very boring kind of endeavour after a while. Unlike trading. There are some respectable ex-gamblers on this site. One of the single most admirable traders on this board is "armaniman". Armaniman is a great guy, he PM'd me once and we communicated. He generously explained to me amazing insights to his most-ever-advanced trading systems. If you asked me if there's anybody on this board whose post-history is really worth reading, I'd say: armaniman. Studying his posts, you will also see what he has to say about professional betting. He used to support himself with professional horse-betting and describes how it works, as well as some experiences and lessons valuable to all traders. Personally, I think since, as a trader, I'm already preoccupied with the requirements, I might as well add pro gambling as a "holiday gimmick" in order to reinforce what I do as a trader. I would like to add here that trading cannot be compared to pro gambling in terms of difficulty. Trading is a -lot- harder. Trading is a game of endless battles with people smarter or more informed than you. The banker in the casino is just a dumb guy you give a tip so he stays friendly. The market makers don't take tips. They take your life. Why do I trade instead of gamble? Because it's exciting, it's challenging, it's very rewarding, I can do it wherever I like, and the broker wants to see me win rather than lose. The myth that all gamblers are losers is just as inaccurate as it is for traders. The less we should assume such misconceptions, right? No, but many people do. Even traders. There's no money to be made in the proverbial obvious. You must assume something unusual in order to have unusual success. Be open. Never take anything for granted, and the world will be your oyster....... Sincerely, ~The Scientist
Trading boring? Not a chance. Working in a cotton mill is the definition of boring! I did that fresh out of high school many years ago and hated it with a passion.
Hi Scientist This actually, while disagreeing, totally supports my assertions in my post. The Pro-gamblers of which you speak have actually found an edge in the market they trade, and have turn the house into the punter and themselves into the house. Yes, the mechanics are different as is the edge required, but the principle remains very clearly the same as demonstrated in your post. Best Natalie
ROFL The only way I would do that is if I had a clear edge within the game being played. I would not participate otherwise. Best Natalie p.s. I kinda know the rules and have no idea how to play that game anyway...
Natalie, I agree with trying to make your trading into a regimented day "just like any other job". However I had a talk with one of my friends the other day who is not a trader. He said I had a great job and I was lucky. I asked him if he could go to work, put in a full day, work very hard, do everythimg you are supposed to do, and lose $1,000 for the day. Obviously he didn't thnk I had it easy any more. Don't get me wrong I love trading and all the ups and downs, but clearly it is not like any other job. Pete
I think you are mixing two things here. Trading is like owning/running a business and not like going to work for another individual who pays you a fixed salary or any other company/institution for that matter. You run your own business, an endeavor which has risks and might generate loses. That is a very big difference. TM Trader
Oh I agree with you when you look at it in that way. But suppose you think of it not in the daily compartmetns, but rather monthly, quarterly, semi/anually compartments. So over the course of an avarage month, (or whatever timescale) there are up days and down days, but the results for the month/ other time period are up results, and the wages you pay yourself as a consequences are good wages. How does it then look? Isn't that the same as having a good day at work or a bad day at work with some days being really good and others being really bad, and many being just simply Ok days? So much has to do with the way things are viewed. Lets say for example you have a $100k trading account and you make 100k in the year, you will have made 1k some days lost 1 k others (the numbers are variable here), but during the year pay yourself 70k and increase your business assets by 30k, how does that day you lost 1k look in that perspective? Best Natalie