Don't know if it's for you, Hank, but sports betting is very lucrative for the tiny minority with the analytical skill for it. It does require a lot of hours of analysis. Other problem is that it's summer and the leagues are quieter now, except for baseball.
get some fresh air, 2008 was fun but I don't look too healthy for it, comeback when the skys begin to bruise earlier post labour day.
Thanks for the replies... many of you are thinking in the right direction. Online poker was only truly juicy during its early years (2003-2004). You had a unique (but temporary) situation back then where pretty much <b>everyone</b> was inexperienced at the game, with more and more newbies flowing in every day. The shark/fish ratio was optimal for the early birds who could figure out the game before the masses caught on. BTW, I quit bothering with online poker before Full-Tilt joined the scene- The 'Rearden Metal' who played (plays?) there isn't me. Sports betting- That's definitely thinking in the right direction. I've tried it in the past, and wasn't able to attain consistent profitability. The 5% to 10% vig is really tough to overcome. I guess part of the problem is that I don't have the ability to figure out how to beat the odds 'from scratch'. Trading- I was trained by a living legend in 1996, handed a kickass working system, and just branched out from there. Poker- Nobody really 'trained' me to play, but Sklansky's books provided a solid foundation. From there all I had to do to find my niche was develop a (variation on Sklansky) system for single table (sit 'n go) tournaments (for which no books existed at the time) to exploit for the brief window of time before the masses figured out the same stuff I did. Without some kind of 'dwarf on the back of giants' foundation, it's tough for me to get profitable at these types of games. I've picked up chess recently (out of boredom- not for $$$ at all), and not having read any chess books to pick up some kind of basic foundation, I can't seem to rise above mediocrity.
FX. Play baskets of currency pairs, rank them by volatility, and be prepared to play around the clock. My money this week was made in exotics.
So would you describe yourself as more of a skilled implementer of strategies rather than a creator of them? What about your call on UYG in August 08, was that from a prior strategy given to you, or was it just experience/instinct? If you're a top implementer without strategies, then I think the best approach would be to find a top strategist with so so implementation skills, team up and kick ass. Changing to less lucrative games with 10-1000 times the vigorish, poor scalability, less scope for creativity, and lower sensory input would IMHO be a waste of time.
No, that was experience & instinct alone, along with pretty much every other call I've made on this site. Seeing and recognizing a few 'if I'm wrong about this, I'll blow a horse' type sure things per year is something I have no problem doing on my own. The thing is, acting on those calls isn't anywhere close to a full-time job. Money isn't the problem- I just need something interesting to do with all my spare time.
I did extremely well with sports betting on the side for a year. So much so, that I was eventually 'cut off' by my betting firm and my account was closed. They don't like it when you win too much. I developed a system and would crunch statistical data on the matchups after the market closed and place my bets for that evening. With parlays, I would occasionally turn a $70 wager into $2,800+ in an evening. The risk/reward ratio is truly outstanding. The firms are offshore and they've since cracked down on transfers of winnings. The key would be to get a local rep in your town, as I had. It was incredible fun for awhile (and lucrative) as a supplement to trading after 4pm.
http://www.urban75.org/useless/bored.html For some real psychological return-on-investment, you could become a Big Brother and teach a poor disadvantaged kid how to save up $500 working at MCD's and become a successful FX trader.