Over 75% of my worst days are Fridays... This is as bad as movement gets.. "Chop Swing" I will call.. It is like a bad movie.. You watch the whole thing expecting something to happen any minute. The pre-market should have been a good clue. The only good that may have come from today is the potential double top at 92. Off to down some advil with vodka. -16 points for the day.. Good Weekend
Well at least I got paid something for participating in the market.. These are net numbers after commissions (4.75 rt). Have a great weekend guys
Fellow NQ traders, I have a question for you. One of the things that I am inconsistent on is whether or not to re-enter a trade after a stop out. I am tending more toward not taking any re-entries. This assumes you are using a reasonable price action stop placement, not just an arbitrary 1.5 or 3 pt stop on every trade. Ideally the stop should be just above/below the previous swing, with your tolerance for risk guiding you to take or pass on any particular setup. I know there are folks who may not use stops, etc., but this is just for discussion. Reasons: 1. Out of every 100 trades there will be a few, say 10%, that go your way after entry and never look back. There may be another 20-30% that give you some heat and then move in your direction If you get stopped, you know that trade will not be in those groups, so the probabilities of success diminish by the percent those type of trades contribute to your overall win/loss ratio. 2. The stop out may be an indication of the start of a consolidation, and reduce the chances of success and increase the chances of another stop out. 3. The market just told you that it is moving in swings larger than you risk tolerance. 4. I find that after a stop out, I tend to allow my mind to see things that in retrospect did not exist. For example, if I get hit and then see a move a few ticks in my direction, I immediately thing, "this is just a stop run and it is getting ready to soar", and re-enter. Just knowing that this is an emotional trigger should be enough to stop me from taking re-entries. Just rambling on a rainy afternoon. You guys have any insights to offer?
So for last week... 37.75 points=$755... BUT 126 trades amounting to $567 siphons off the bulk of it. Selectivity has been a foreign word since I got more involved in the fast 9:30 to 16:00 market.. Were all those trade needed to capture the 37.75? I think not. Changes in order.
Whether you should re-enter or not depends on your personal style of trading and how you view the markets, or more specifically the price action. I think we all view the markets differently to some degree or another. Case in point, I can remember there were times when we would post real time entries at around the same time but in different directions (eg. I was short and you were long). So imo the person best to answer your questions is you yourself because only you know your strategy and mindset best. Here are some suggestions that may help you in finding the answers to your question. 1. Develop ways to define the market bias and stay within that bias when trading. I use simple price levels and use that in conjunction with the longer term charts for the bigger picture. 2. If you don't already do so, use a fast chart and look inside those 1k vol bars. They may seem chaotic at first but after some time you will see patterns in them that allow you to react more quickly in getting in or out of a trade. 3. Always start with analyzing the longer term charts (daily and 60 min) and then work your way down to the intraday and fast charts. You might think that because you're a daytrader that longer term charts don't pertain to you, but I can tell you that it's very important not to ignore them. 4. Don't stay stuck in the intraday chart for too long of a period. You need to constantly zoom out and analyze the bigger picture as you go along in the trading day. Is the larger sentiment still intact or is it broken? As for stop placement, I think that depends on your method of entry. If you use stop orders to enter then you need to be prepared for price to re-trace on you. Because that's what it does all day, oscillating back and forth trying to find buyers and sellers.
THIS is what leads to my troubled days and overtrading. In fact my system is to get a reversal in a longer time frame them come down to the lower for entry ONLY... but them I get stuck in the Twilight Zone.. If you depend solely on an upper time-frame for signals you are less likely to over-trade.. BUT those BIG occasional big bars show you what you could have had.. Smallest Globex session in a while. Volatility squeezing down.. either the bulls are back with low volatility grind up OR... Lull before storm down. Hourly wedge tapering to a point.
This is bullish behavior... EVERY 5 minute red candle since the 11:30 low has been immediately bought..