The two charts you have posted are interesting and are indeed the same function. Unfortunately you're not going to be able to work out what this is due to the decisions you've already made. You have adopted a certain mindset to look at the market which comes with certain limitations. The limitations will prevent you from gaining any understanding beyond recognising a visual similarity. Which when you recognise it will be too late to make a profit. What function is in play here, what is the purpose, who benefits? Don't ask DB he doesn't know. Learn to ask the right questions for yourself. Here is something which might rescue you (very long shot). Get off the Internet. Forget everything you have ever learned about trading. Doesn't exist any more. Might be wise to take a few months off from even thinking about trading. Then start over. Sit with these two charts. And think. No books. No mentors/gurus. If you continue on your current path you're going to be here for life with all the others who are not successful. A year of getting nowhere ought to be enough to prove that to you. Unless you continue to be deluded that you've actually achieved something in this year. In which case, what is your P&L? Rhetorical. DB says: "[stay] centered and observe what other traders are doing." - without knowing HOW to do this and HOW it helps you to enter and exit trades the statement is meaningless. DB says: "it was possible that [this equilibrium] might provide a launching pad either up or down at the open" - certainly this statement is true, but provides no help for a trader wishing to take a directional position and profit. It could go up or down should be recognised for what it is - a banal generality. DB says: "trading more than one contract, real or sim, would enable the trader to keep dancing rather than become a wallflower". Two things should immediately strike the perceptive. #1 is that this is a hedge against guessing - ask any gambler - if a betting method doesn't work with level staking then it doesn't work. #2. How many successful traders trade 1 contract? Or even 2? This is the guy who you've chosen to follow and whose limitations you've chosen to accept? DB continues with some general advice to imagine a premarket range as being an equilibrium level...and then to imagine a rubber band. So the thesis is that if price goes up X distance above the range, it is due to come back down X distance below the range. How does this help us place a trade and make a profit? If we sell as price is rising based on some arbitrary point above an "equilibrium level"....will "work" sporadically for some arbitrary values of X but will not be +EV in itself.... If we buy as price makes the equal move back down though the bottom of the range...this will work when the function is as the charts you've posted, but will "fail" the rest of the time. DB doesn't know why this double range break occurs or how to manage it. Therefore neither do you. So good luck trying to make a profit. Yes you have observed a condition but you are no closer to making money from it. Nor are you any closer to understanding what creates the condition as you've accepted DB's limitations. So you are lost. If you carry on with DB you will be told to watch what traders are doing, a range will be called equilibrium, on an up bar demand overcame supply...etc. All meaningless. I know the difference between up and down, but tell me what is going to happen next: up OR down. That is trading. Good. So you understand that nothing DB writes is of any use to somebody who wishes to buy and sell futures contracts to make a profit. It is all interesting/beautiful/whatever if that is your cup of tea, but it is not and cannot be a strategy for making net gains. So long as you understand and are honest about this then all you have the potential to lose is your time. And it is not a loss if you find it recreational as you suggest. You just need to be happy with the end position of being able to make elegant and beautiful analysis on charts, even to "guide" other aspiring traders with your analysis, but not able to make a net profit for yourself. In fact you are not even trading as you understand that the work you've done will not enable you to make money. Your continued presence here when it should now be obvious you will learn nothing of value signifies that you simply want the attention/interaction not a successful trading business. The very best thing for you to do would be to leave this site and not come back (unless of course you become profitable). Once you are profitable you are not going to be tainted or misled by certain elements here as you will be able to determine sense from nonsense very easily. For some reason I find cases like yours fascinating and morbidly horrifying and therefore I'm often tempted to waste time posting to them. It is sobering and sad to know that there is a real person on the other end who is well and truly lost without hope of redemption. These "journal" threads encouraged by DB are truly sad. Not one person has ever come out the other side profitable. Ever. That should tell you something. But the need to believe is strong with the gullible and the greedy...lambs to the slaughter. Baa....baa....bye...bye!
Nearly all beginners are "well and truly lost". And if they don't do any testing and build a database and develop a trading plan before simtrading, they will remain that way. Doesn't matter if one is trading "demand/supply imbalances" or MACD divergences in Ichimoku clouds.
Just as you are fascinated with my journal, I too am fascinated with your continued quest. I really wonder what motives you to keep discouraging me? I'm not sure I would care so much about "saving" people online if I myself hadn't been in the same boat. So I have to ask, are you a failed trader? Perhaps you failed for many years but then found a way to make it work which was completely different than how you first tried and hence you have a deep rooted issue with whatever this method was or whoever taught it to you? You certainly sound like you know what you are talking about now, but you really don't offer me anything I can use, so the same criticism you have about Db I can say about you. I also find it interesting that you say there is value in the two charts that I posted, and in fact, you even say I should run off and study them and come up with my own conclusions when this isn't that much different from what Db would say. I, like you, am a bit frustrated with Db offering so much, yet still not being precise enough with the entries. When he teaches SLA, the entries are specific, but much of the great analysis he provides is outside the scope of SLA. Perhaps he would say to just wait for the first RET and then put on a trade in the direction that is outlined, but often these opportunities don't present themselves in that a neat and orderly RET close to the best place of entry doesn't happen (and if you don't get the best price, you could be entering right around chop, even if price will still continue in your direction). Take today for example, right after the open when price tried to test support at 93 one more time, it stopped at 95. I could buy above this bar, so one point above this would be an entry of 99, but this isn't an SLA trade, and the first RET doesn't really occur until later with an entry of about 3811. (actually... just using SLA here would provide some good trades... so today might have been a good SLA day ... but my point is that the blueprint of context and behavior that he provides is absolutely solid, but lacking specifics (although I fully understand the trader should be doing this work)). But back to you... so now I'm at a loss for what you are saying. You say these two charts have value, you tell me to go study them, you tell me to get off the internet and not listen to anybody but to figure it out for myself, and you actually acknowledge that there is a long shot that I might make money? So studying charts has value? Blotto.. it almost sounds like in some sick and twisted way you really are rooting for me! Is this true?
You are trying to "follow price" and "trade with the trend" because that is what you have been told to do by websites, gurus, conventional wisdom. It hasn't helped you make money. Fact. Yet again here is another example of taking a profit against price chasers who have entered late and at poor prices. I grant you it is "only" 7 NQ points (and less than 4 minutes of market exposure). I've shown you a few examples of this now. If the trend is so important, why is it possible to make very consistent very predictable and very profitable short trades in a so called uptrend? Is it possible that what you are reading for free online isn't going to make you profitable, but in fact will load your mind with a bunch of false beliefs and inaccurate notions that will prevent you from achieving any level of success? And make your account easy pickings for better traders if you ever go live again? Not what people want to hear, but a lot closer to the truth than most of the feel good stuff you'll get here. I don't have the time or the inclination to discuss DB or his methods. And I've done all I can to try and wake you up. Horse and water. As for "saving" people - I've known one guy end up in prison for fraud when his market losses got out of control, one who was profitable for years but didn't survive blowing up, and a few more who are a bit mentally worse off for having traded despite being net profitable. For certain personality types it can be destructive. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. That doesn't mean that I am a naysayer, deny that it can be done, or am anti-success. I just don't want the wrong people being motivated to do the wrong thing to their ultimate cost. I view the "price action" advice given by certain gurus as a type of fraud which causes tangible losses in time and often capital to those who are taken in by it. Caveat emptor. My objective was just to get you to realise that you won't get an edge with what you are doing. Then you can either abandon trading, or do your own work to get an edge, but cured of any delusions. I doubt I've succeeded and will simply leave it at that.
But you do have time to post a meaningless number and say zip about process. If you want to open up a thread attacking me, do not hesitate to do so. If you want to open up a thread attacking those who trade price action, do not hesitate to do so (oops, already done; several times). But hijacking somebody's journal is childish.
I don't deny that I haven't made money, but I think its important to separate my execution of a method from what the intended method is. Surely you must acknowledge that many people say that trading with the trend is how to make consistent profits in the long run? I don't doubt that your technique works. You are after all profiting from my emotions of getting into a trade and then having it go against me so I'm desperate to get out because I can't sit through a RET. So you have an excellent system to take advantage of these "pauses" in the trend. But if you had a system that was trend following, if you saw the previously mentioned level of roughly 3793 outlined, could you not see that there was a potential to make multiples of the 7 points you made? (we have gone up almost 50 points today... and although its impossible to capture this entire range, and you might have some losses along the way, getting in on a 40 or 50 point move more than makes up for this) Listen, I would be extremely happy with a consistent 7 points a day if this worked just as well for trading 10 contracts. But it seems to me that for long term success and less worry, trading with the trend is the way to go if you build a system around good entries with solid reasons to either take a profit or to take the loss.
So I'm for sure cutting down on the posting, but want to point out a couple of things. This is all hindsight, not prepared to take any of these trades, but perhaps if I was completely of the opinion that I didn't care what price does, that I didn't care about my P&L, these would be places that made sense to buy. (and by this I mean they follow some outlined plan... in order words, I do know where entries should be, but too much of m brain gets in the way) A - Here is the 5 min SL coming down. B - Yet another bounce here off 93. We already had one bounce earlier overnight, and this level has already been on my chart since Friday. O - At the open, we try down first. C - We get this far. Not quite low enough to test 93 again. If an entry is made above this bar, it gets me in at 99, and with a stop below 93, this would be over 6 points. But it clearly works. Did I think of this in real time? Hmmm.. not sure. I was fully aware of looking for a long based on that strong support at 93, but we are coming down from overnight, so lets not mess with the trend. Plus, this long entry isn't exactly according to any trading plan, its just a high probability trade based on reading price. D - Here is officially a RET for an SLA long. Gosh, I just don't like these 1 tick retracemetns though. Do I know how often they work or not? No... but the answer is of course in the charts so it can be found. E - Here is another RET for a long, but this would get stopped out soon. F - So do I even consider this RET for another long? The low of this bar holds up against the previous low, but it sure is a big drop from the high that we hit around 3825. G - This is now for sure a lower high. H - Coming down to here, we have a lower low. We could have almost gone short based on this 123 setup. But... and this is a big but, look at where we stop going down. We essentially test the breakout level of that 5 min SL. (Thanks ND!) Right after the 5 mins SL broke, I find it hard to look for a clean test of this and a clean RET based on ND's BOPB, but after bouncing off from here, the long at "I" would of course be an amazing trade. ---------------- I'm still discouraged. Not because of Blotto... I do actually enjoy his criticisms in a way to be honest, so I'm just discouraged with how much work I've put into this, and yet its the wrong type of work because I'm no closer to having a plan and being able to put on trades with confidence. I've managed to actually get my SIM up and running.... so this is excellent, but I just got a message on my MultiCharts that the free verison will stop working at the end of the week. I could still use the TWS verison, but it won't allow me to place trades, even trades when I log into the SIM account, so simming with MC is out of the question now. I will look into seeing if I can just place the trades through IB though. The default settings in IB are so stupid. The "close" button enters a limit order, not a market order. The entry for an OCO order for the exit strategy is also messed up in some way in that these aren't the order types that are set with what I'm used to in MC. I should be able to get this all to work hopefully though if I can change all the presets. I still won't be able to drag the order and drop it down onto the DOM since IB doesn't work this way and hence I will have to click within the price ladder, but as long as I can change the presets so that the click initiates a Stop Limit Order to enter a trade and auto attaches a stop loss exit as a limit order that changes to a market order once hit, and a profit taking order as a stop limit, then I should be ok. The free verison of MC for TWS will still allow me to use the charting. ------------------- My biggest problem is the time factor. I can see that in order to make 50 points in a day, I need to give the trade a few hours to work. But had I tried to enter the long at "E" of "F", I know I wouldn't still be holding and would more than likely be too scared to re-enter again. But I know that in order to have any chance of actually trading the trend and not just scalping, I will have to learn to control all the crap going on inside my head.
I disagree. I believe you have to learn to enter and manage trades according to your plan (which you don't have yet, so keep testing ideas until you do), despite all the crap going on inside your head.
Interesting adjustment. I do quite like it! As the day progressed, I actually saw more BOPB entries but just didn't have the determination to write them up in my journal. Price was doing so many things to make it appear as if the trend was over, and yet, here we are, almost 60 points higher!