I traded that, measured move target wasn't quite 5 pts, but hoped to get 5 pts, so close, missed by a tick I think.
I actually didn't really know anything about trading before I started... but my lack of confidence certainly stems from the lack of having a trading plan. I was first using SLA as a blueprint, but in no way would the trades that I took match up with what the rules of SLA are, so this was a terrible result. Then of course the worse things got, the more need there was for "making it back", and well, I dug my own hole! LOL... I also think that my upbringing in reference to value of money and never putting on risk have produced a mindset that isn't compatible with trading. So its been a struggle, and everything had to essentially be learned. In reference to Market Behavior, I couldn't agree more, but would like to put this another way. Thinking about the market didn't help me at all. If anything, I was trying to think my way through things, and I've learned that there is no time for thinking in a live environment. What I needed was rules to just act on. So in essence, I could think the market is going up, but even this is too abstract. But now I see that when a 5 minute trend line is broken, this is where I can start looking for the trade. Perhaps one day I will be able to "think" my way through this very quickly, but I think for now, to dig myself out, the only way forward is a firm set of rules that are just followed automatically. Perhaps there can be some thinking around how strong a breakout is, but none of this can start until the trigger is there from something that has been clearly identified objectively, not subjectively.
This one was a bit tricky because price had come back inside, and we didn't have a close outside, so in essence, based on the BOPB rules, we might be jumping in a bit too soon, but I think given the context of the hinge, its legitimate to say the odds favor going out the bottom again, and if price was never triggered because price went up, well no harm I guess. Since you never hit your 5 point target and missed by a tick, where was your exit? 3 point profit? BE? You wouldn't wait to test the breakout level again would you?
Yeah it wasn't a "classic" BOPB setup, but price pulled back to the 4019.00 level and I figured if price came back down it was likely to test the previous swing low. I took a few ticks on the trade, exited on the 1-2-3 break. It wasn't a very strong short setup.
Ah... beautiful. On my next chart, I see exactly what you mean. I even marked a long at "a". My gosh, this just works so beautifully!
When I was doing my early analyses of price action setups I got to a point where I kept saying this same thing. It seemed impossible, especially when you read all these posts and threads about how everyone loses and profitable day trading is impossible and you have to have secret edges that only the big boys know about. I thought to myself, if I can aggressively trade this stuff I should never have a losing day. And I PM'd an experienced day trader here and pretty much told him my thoughts about this, and he assured me that it's very possible, not just an illusion. That was a great inspiration for me!
How good of you to pass this inspiration along! The next test of course is if this realization can be translated into dollars flowing into the account. Luckily I'm being pointed in the right direction with regards to the mental game.
So first a compressed view to show how I drew my trendlines going into the open. I unfortunately have a couple of each. Along the top I have two SL's. I first had the one connecting with B, and then we have a slightly higher high, so I've got another connecting with C. Will just have to watch both. Along the bottom, I have two as well, the longer term one, and then just before the open a tighter one to connect the swing points of A and D. This is drawn here on the 1 minute, but based on these swing points, it would have looked the same on the 5 minute. O - So at the open, I try my best to mark in where the opening was, and I spent some time going back and forth between my charts in Multicharts and IB. I could see there is a difference, so since they are using the same data stream, there is something with the way how Multicharts is "packaging" these ticks into the one minute bars. Have to figure this out because it is causing some problems. Right at the open we have 4 bars overlapping, kind of ugly. E - We almost touch this 5 min DL, but it doesn't really register too much in my head. I don't consider it a bounce because of all this chop. F - This is a tricky spot. Price has penetrated both SL's, but closes below both as well. So although we have a nice little RET in here, the trade isn't set up properly, and I just don't like those opening chop bars. G - We quickly climb up and hit a high here. H - And then we fall 7 points down to here. We still close above the lower SL, and this could be just a big RET in what is turning out to be an uptrend now, so I place a buy stop above this bar which fills within 2 minutes. As I entered the trade, I was a bit worried about the quick fall down, it was 7 points after all, so not just a minor RET, but I feel as if the trade set up properly, so it had to be taken. I - I had my stop set at one tick below the low of the signal bar. It was 4 points away, but not so bad. This is obviously where my stop loss was triggered. Looking at it now, this bar is quite big, so I wonder if I should have exited sooner, on the way down, but oh well. It is unfortunate that price very quickly reversed, but oh well once again. Its just one trade that didn't work. If ND can provide a reason why there should have been caution around this, I'd love to hear, but otherwise, I cannot conclude anything based on one trade. So now things get a bit problematic. We essentially have a double top at G and a series of lower highs, but its all a trading range. J - We have a break below the DL now and I mark 2 possible shorts. They are only marked and not taken because each closes above the bar. Of course price fell nicely after the second one, but rules are rules. I am eager to reload the data after I'm finished to see if in fact there is a RET in here that closes below the trendline and could have been a trade set up properly. K - So here we drop below the less steep SL, have a RET which came up to test the trendline and dropped back down again. Because this is set up properly, the trade is taken. It goes sideways for 4 minutes and then I exited. The exit is partly based on emotions, I don't want another 4 point loss, but also I see that we are at the OL, and from my testing before, I see that this level might set up a move back up. So even though I wouldn't use this as a reason to not take a trade, since it didn't go anywhere, I made my exit. L - I mark a short here because price came up to the DL and came back down again. The downtrend is still strong, and this could have been a great RET to get in. It luckily didn't trigger as price didn't drop low enough below the previous bar. These bars are looking a bit choppy, so not sure if I should still be hunting for a short anyway. M - So after price climbed up, I noticed this little RET in here. Is it valid to take a long here? Based on SLA, we might not have a line break at this point yet, but the action below certainly looked like we were bottoming out. Its hard to see a higher low in here mind you, perhaps a 1 tick higher low, so I think not seeing this long here is justified. N - So what to do here. I had a SL drawn in across the previous highs up around the levels of G. I didn't expect price to come up again, but when it did, I extended this line. It doesn't quite touch, but perhaps this is close enough. Looking at it now, this bar is less than 3 points long, so a stop loss wouldn't be so bad. Its a trendline based on only two minor swing points though, so it didn't look that solid, and we are after all trending up quite nicely at this point. Anyway, price just drops like crazy so this in fact would have been a great trade. P - We come all the way down to here and I try for a short below the RET, but this drop is rather climactic so I'm out fairly quickly. It sure looks like we climbed up to fill in some of this air space before coming back down. In the back of my head this whole day was Db pointing out that we are close to the SL on the daily chart. I had this marked as well on my hourly, and although we poked slightly above hitting the level of 4040 (The SL now is of course lower since it slopes diagonally down), there really was no long setup other than the one I tried. SUMMARY So I'm down -$72. I think all trades were legit (ok.. maybe not the one at P after a major drop), so there are no hard feelings. The trade at N got so close, and would have more than made this a positive day, but it just didn't look good enough based on the fact that the trendline used swing highs that were so close. Its not the 5/1 BOPB setup, but it is another trade that ND was showing in my journal a few weeks back, so I have a good idea behind how this one works as well. ND, if you're reading, I do hope you can show what is missed on this chart and perhaps if anything was wrong with that first long.
@k p your trading this morning makes me want to assume that you really are into some S&M Let's start with the question of why you are trading the 1-min. It's like trying to understand this guy in the clip below. You may understand what he's trying to say, but it's making hard work of it all. And after a while, it will all get lost in translation. He is the OPTIMAL example of the equivalent of trading the 1-min. I could comment on your trades, but it won't serve either of us a purpose as we would both be looking at different things. However, I will post what I see on my chart. Please note that I do not trade future, but I am a firm believer in the thought that says "a chart is a chart is a chart..............."
I am only looking for entries on the 1 minute chart but using the 5 minute for showing trend and changes in trend. Looking forward to that chart!