This almost sounds too logical! Its funny how on both days, if I just kept holding that first short I might not have had to do anything else all day and none of this would have happened. Of course this CWS doesn't help much, but perhaps I'm just telling myself this to not make things sound as bad. At the same time, I don't want to be taking a step backwards. In a way, I already did a week or so ago when I decided to just focus on the extremes and rejections, which is of course how things should have been done all along. Yesterday I guess was just realizing that I don't have as much discipline as I should. Going forward, I'm hoping that yesterday taught me to be a bit more patient with a trade that isn't going bad yet, but not to hold on when it is going bad. Far too many trades lately have been exits for only one point which is stupid because once price is coming in my direction to hit my tiny profit target, there should be no reason to get out. Anyway... thanks for reading my journal and the comments. I hope this is helping somebody!
A - This looked very much like a hinge forming with an apex here of 82. This 82 is also the mean of this a range before the open... so it certainly looks like an equilibrium level that traders are happy trading around. B - I first wanted to short somewhere around here, seeing how the small climb at the open doesn't go far, and seems to reject at just below the apex. C - I ended up going short here. D - Here is my exit. I waited to see what would happen at roughly the opening level. Then I waited to see what would happen at the apex. And then after sliding my stop loss target up high enough away, it was finally hit. Yes... its about $140 loss on just this trade.. the very first one of the day. E - Decided to go long here, just because of course since this up move was so strong. My exit is only one tick higher because of course now I'm thinking I should be more careful. F - So now I'm seeing that price keeps getting bought up at the overnight high, so I go long here. Seems to work for a minute or two, but I got spooked and I exit for just a few ticks profit. G - Price does come down to test this overnight level. Perhaps a long above this test would be good, but of course I'm scared of a double top since one point above this bar puts me into a long at essentially the previous high. So I wait. H - So then I finally go long here. Yes, at the top of this bar, and I'm out on the very next bar for at least another $60 loss. I'm not making this shit up people. I really am an expert at getting in and out at the worst possible time. So now I'm at -$216 for the day. SUMMARY If I focused just on the levels, basically the overnight and previous day levels, seeing that there wasn't a REJ at the OH, if I went long above G and just held, well, that looks like it was a zero risk trade as price just kept going. Who knows where I would have gotten out, the high at H and subsequent drop in price would be enough to make me keep what I had, but this was at least 3 or 4 points. Honestly, I can't help but wonder why statistically I haven't had at least one good trade in weeks... months maybe? Yes I know that I cut my good trades short at only one point, but I guess this is because it looks like the trend is starting to slow down. But you would think that at least one trade would instantly work and not be in the negative like so many of my losing trades that are instantly in the negative.
My take fwiw: Can't fault your exit at D, trendline broken higher plus hh. Your entry at E is fine for same reasons but what pray tell told you to exit on the very next bar? nothing imo. Taking 1-2 pt profit targets due to nerves and wanting to get that win while at the same time risking 5-7 pt stops will not work in the long run but I think you know that. It won't even be death by 1,000 cuts, with that kind of r/r you won't last 1,000 trades
Really? The exit at D is just so far away from the entry though. If I was playing the hinge then the entry should have been much higher up, before the open even, so that apex was much closer to the entry and the stop could have been just a couple of points. But it seems like my entry was more so based on the continuation of the down move, and that trend was long over before price got to D. I do this often where I enter a trade for one reason, but for the exit I use a different reason that should be used for a different type of trade which would have had a different entry. Yes, I absolutely see that I won't even get to 1000 cuts. That 2nd trade, the long, would have in fact worked quite well, but at the same time, price had already gone up so far so I think it is a bit late. Plus, and I forget to mention this in my write up, I was a bit worried that price would come down again because it would be bouncing around the opening level for a while because I see this happen quite often until finally it breaks out either up or down. But for sure taking tick profits and multiple point losses is killing me.
LOL... please dont! There is nothing to learn from today except to not do what I do! hahaha... I just hope my "donation" to the market today went to some pension fund that supports nuns or something like this!
So here is what I'm looking at. After that great discussion with Db yesterday, I can see how the closest swing low at 54 is vital importance to see if there is going to be a weakness in price or not. Well as you can see, price bounces one point above this level at 55.25 overnight, and rallies at least 10 points now. It formed a tiny double bottom and just took off!!! Wow, when you get these levels right, the trades at the extremes are so jucy! So the overnight action is a 20 point range, and price is only back up to the midpoint, so lets see if it holds. Price may very come back down again to 55 to test it one more time. There is going to be a news announcement soon so we first have to get through this and then I will re-evaluate before the open.
Wow, that was quite the violent news release! For the most part price went up, and although if went up 10 points, there was a REV just one point above the OH, although of course the overnight session isn't over yet. This happens at A. B - Price comes up one more time, stops just shy of the high at A. Gosh, do I enter a short or no? C - We have a swing low here, quite far away, so taking a short would be doing it in an uptrend, which is the nature of all reversals after all. Hmmmm... D - We breached the previous high at A, so this looks like its going up!
So I tried one trade just now shown on the 15 sec chart. After price was bought up and passed the most recent swing high over night which for me made me have my OH level at 74, I saw we only got to 80 and formed a range as outlined by my box. You can also see how the DL gets broken within the box. A - Once price dropped below 76, I was took a short. B - I hold through this rise back up here to test and fortunately it comes back down. C - Its having lots of trouble penetrating here, the 74 level I have outlined. I continue to hold although this does put me about a point into profit. D - My exit is here because I want to make sure to cut my losses short and let my profits run. So I'm out and sitting at -$24. E - Sadly, I see how just two ticks higher is a double top with the high at B and price continues to drop after this point, and this time of breaking, breaking below this level. F - I try for one more short here, a bit of a continuation trade, but thinking that the down move is now solid. The exit is made for 1 tick profit when price quickly comes back up. I had intended to close to trade for at least a point profit to come back up to BE following the earlier loss, but oh well. The exit was good though because price keeps coming up. So now I start my day at -$23. That first trade was excellent though, its just a shame I didn't use that one swing high as a place to think about my stop because if my stop was just one tick higher, I would have been in the short once it finally broke through 74.
Well, to be honest, I'm not quite sure what to do at the open now. The OH should noW be at 4080, not 74 anymore, so lets see what happens as price climbs up, since it is going up. Looking for a trade down at 54 would be best, but we might not even get there anymore, and if we do get there, that means there will be over a 20 point drop since we are already up so high above it, and surely there must be a way to monopolize on it. But this area between 61 and 80 is just littered with price and swing points that its hard to know where to enter based on extremes. I guess just following trend lines and look for retracements, but man, this chopped me up so much before. Hmmm.... Well, we might really make a go of 80, so lets see what happens there. I tried 2 trades already and I'm only down $23, so I'm still in good spirits.