A - This box captures the range of the previous hour. Had I chosen just the past 30 mins, it would be super tight, between about 53 and 55. I mention this because first, overnight wasn't so much a range as a climb up, and second, I am trying to figure out what to look for at the open in order to get into a trade much sooner than SLA would allow me. O - Here is the opening. Price basically goes up (although in real time, I think there was a bit of a dip down as well, just a little test). Now in this first minute we already break out the top of the of the range pictured, hence a clue. B - Here is the SLA long. I should have lowed it by a tick when the high on the next bar goes down, but nevertheless, I get a fill at 59.50 a few minutes after the entry trigger. This is also where I draw in the first DL. We don't have a swing low yet to use, so might as well use my entry bar. It of course does break right away, but this is to be expected. C - Here is the first swing low that I can use to fan my DL. It takes about 4 minutes for price to finally go above my entry point. In the whole grand scheme of things, this actually is a nice and strong move up with these lows being just ticks lower to create the swing low. D - Here is the next swing low used to fan the DL again. As you can see, I just drew in new DLs as opposed to fanning them to show how its progressing, a better indication of what is happening in real time. I gotta say, I was in profit protecting mode. I started sliding my exits up and down, and dare I say, hoping that price came up again hence my exit where you see it, at the tops of the previous highs. Its kind of silly when you think about it because I exit as price is coming up. Of course when its at the low of the bars, its where I would get scared and want to exit, which once again would be at the worst place given this up trend. So I'm up $81, but there is still pain because of course I was thinking that I'm cutting this far too short. Its just that I waited for 6 minutes for price to go above the previous high, which is stupid, but it is what I thought and how I felt. Naturally right after my exit price goes even higher. I'd like to think that if I got in sooner, I would have held on longer because I wanted at least a few points profit, but had I been already 5 points ahead, I might have not been so protective. You know though, I'm pushing myself through these live trades because I really don't know what I would do. I find in addition to coming up with a trading plan, I'm also trying to figure myself out, to see where my strengths and weaknesses are so that I can build a plan around this. E - This drop here through the newest DL was quite sudden. Had I still been in, it might have caused me to panic and sell, thinking that I was still above where I initially wanted to exit at D if I didn't in fact hit the close button. (protecting profits is I don't think a winning strategy, so I gotta solve this. I think once I see that my entries are good and any small loses I can make up easily, it will be easier to hold on longer) F - It doesn't take much to halt the fall and we climb back up. G - Once we go above the previous high, we can fan the DL (or draw a new one in), which connects the swing low at F. Its interesting how this new line works for quite a while. G - Its such a nice and steady climb up. 30 minutes after my exit, there is another 10 points to the trade. I got a measly 4.25 points, and over 10 easy points was left. Mark Douglas in his book, The Disciplined Trader, ends with: "Even after you have learned all of the skills set forth in this book, at some point in time it will probably occur to you that your trading is simply a feedback mechanism to tell you how much you like yourself in any given moment. After you have learned to trust yourself to always act in your best interests, the only thing that will hold you back is your degree of self-valuation. That is, you will give yourself an amount of money that directly corresponds with what you believe you deserve based on some value system you acquired at some point in your life. The more positive you feel about yourself, the more abundance that will naturally flow your way as a byproduct of these positive feelings. So, in essence, to give yourself more money as a trader you need to identify, change or decharge anything in your mental environment that doesn't contribute to the highest degree of evaluation that is possible. What's possible? Stay focused on what you need to learn, do the work that is necessary, and your belief in what is possible will naturally expand as a function of your willingness to adapt." I gotta say, this worries me. Getting this far has been a bit of an emotional roller-coaster to be honest. It shouldn't be like this, and I'm hardly going crazy, but I do feel bad often when I don't make the best choices. I try and separate what I should have seen from what was unknowable at the time and hence not be so hard on myself, but just feeling bad is an emotion that has no place in trading. Cutting my profits so short, as a result of this quote, makes me really question my self worth. I came to trading because I'm tired of trying so hard at other things and its always a struggle. I didn't want to pick yet another career that would one day become obsolete. In a way, I'm almost happy that things didn't go better in the other endeavors so that I could end up here, but then it certainly puts the pressure on to make it work. Pressure leads to stress and stress is just an emotion I think, so yet another thing to work on leaving behind. I have to try to just focus on moving forward and giving all of these stumbling blocks less energy. Phew, ok, back to trading. H - Funnily enough, after I took a detour to start typing all this up, price broke the DL, complete with a lower high. I have clearly not been all that interested for the past 30 minutes since each extra point was $20 that I didn't make. I - Here is the SLA short that would trigger a few mins later, but ultimately fails. J - As a result of the SL break, we can draw in a new DL. This one is tight, so no doubt it will be broken, and we are back to the beginning where we will have to monitor if we can fan it or not. SUMMARY Its only been just over an hour, but I've already been done for a while. If I held initially, I doubt I would have held much past the DL break after G, so if my exit was around 72, that would be another 9 points ($180), as opposed to just my measly $81. But hey, each day is a learning experience, and each day I'm up, no matter how much or how little is still a good day. I think the other reason why I exited so soon is that the entry was 6 points above the opening, so my exit was already 10 points above the opening. I had it in my head that yesterday we only had a good 10 point move above the opening, so in case we had a repeat of yesterday, I didn't want to follow the drop down and lose my 4 points. On top of all this, we just keep going up, and it seemed like the 3850 was supposed to be some sort of channel top, so once again, I was thinking about a short bias. I luckily took the long as it came up, but just didn't believe that it could have so much steam in it. How many times have I said that I need to forget what I think!!!!!
Well obviously the thing to do yesterday was just buy at the open and walk away. What' also jumps out at me after going over the day a bit later, I see that where I got out of my trade was really just another entry point. Its funny how being in a trade, being in profit protecting mode, led me to see things differently. PREP FOR JULY 2 Ok.. I got up early today for the news reports, and it was rather lackluster. I noted in my head the fairly tight range overnight, between about 86 and 90, cutting off the bottoms a bit, because this gives a mean of 88 and visually price really moves around this level, so this range with the mentioned levels is nice and neat. As a result of the news, price did shoot up to 91, but then dropped right back into the range to settle around the mean. We have an ultimate high of 3894.50 yesterday, and nothing on the way up to follow other than a DL (excluding the channel since I'm not really sure if mine is correct). On the way down, if we drop out of the range and drop below 83, we don't have much until about 50 and below. Based on the channel I posted yesterday though, we still have room to go up, and the DL on the hourly is in no trouble of breaking. Hmmm.. let me try this. If I draw in my channel on a daily chart, not the compressed hourly chart, the upper line works much better to connect with other values. Not sure why it doesn't co-relate better. But looking at this attached chart, it seems that the upper line would be at 3908, so this gives me something to look for actually. The mean in this channel seems to work quite well actually. So will we have as easy of a day as yesterday at the open? We've been up for a few days in a row now, but I'm not sure if this fact points to any concrete probability of a direction, but it would be cool if we hit 3908 as per my channel and then turn back down.
Ok.. this channel business is bugging me. On April 24, the daily shows a high of 3608, and the hourly shows a high of 3618. This explains why the upper line is different. I hate these damn continuous contracts... why do there have to be different ones for each quarter???? Investing.com shows a high of about 3618, and over at CME, they show 3608 because you have to choose the current contract. So, as always, depending on how you combine the different quarters, you get different values. Well, if we do go up, lets see if we do in fact turn around at 3608 or 3618. Edit: Oh ya, and on my charts from my post reviews a few months back, the high is 3618 cause it was a different contract we were trading than the current one. So perhaps 3618 is the better value, which means the upper line should be somewhere about 3920.
A - Drawing in a SL, and here comes up an op for a short. I was going to note that closer to the open, we are in the lower half of the trading range, just something to keep in mind. B - After price respected the SL on the wave up and now broke below the range, I was wishing I had gone short before the open. The only difference I see between here and waiting for the open is that the overnight trading margins are higher. But in a way it moves slower, which is nice, and if the move continues at the open, you are already in. C - Just a slight break of the SL, I can still put in a short op below this bar. It wouldn't trigger. O (red) - So at the open, we have a dip down by a few ticks, and curiously turn back up. I said it before, that usually we do one or the other, continue the trend, or go in the other direction. If you get it right, you're in the move for a better price than waiting for a RET. If you get it wrong, just SAR. This will not work too well if price just wobbles around the open price level, but "usually" it does one or the other. I have to define this. D - So we go up 4 points without me, and at the top of the range, we have an op to go long at 91. It takes about two minutes to fill. I really was quite iffy about this one, and wanted to even bump it up to 91.50 so that price at least clears the thrust up as a result of the news an hour earlier. I just didn't want to be buying into a double top you could say. On the plus side, we did go straight up at the open, we cleared the mean, we cleared the top of the range, and yesterday's high isn't that far away, so we could perhaps at least make a try for that. I will also note this. Although I know that Db says volume isn't a factor in SLA, and price moves just fine without volume, especially in the afternoon where it creeps up slowly but before you know it, you have another 10 or 20 points, I do notice that at the open there might be something to it. I need to test this of course, but typically, when the minute bars have less than 2000 contracts for the first few minutes, the moves don't have enough oomph behind them. Here, the first minute is only 1800 contracts, and volume drops off after this. Testing is of course necessary. Yesterday, we had 2800 for the first minute, 2200 for the second, and then it dropped below 2000, but there was still another bar that had over 2000 when price shot up a bit. But lets face it, I got so much shit going through my head that I first need to learn to walk before I can run, and this mean buying when price is going up, and selling when price is going down. E - So back to my trade. I have a few different DLs drawn in, and after a dip down, we go back up, but then another dip down. This isn't looking good. When we are down at "E", I am thinking lets at least see what happens at the overnight mean. If price continues to fall, then I'd have to get out by then cause I'd be down over 4 points, but it did turn back up. F - By the time we get here, I've had enough. Once again, I know I'm getting out even though I have a higher swing low below the bar at "F", but its just taken too much time to get essentially nowhere, so I'm out for $26 profit. In this instance, the move was a good move as price dropped just two minutes later, but if I used the previous swing low at E as my "line in the sand", I could have still held on for another swing back up to get out break even perhaps. G - When price comes down to here, I am already drawing in the limits of this range, 88.50 and 92.50, and if I was in trading range mode, I should be buying. It would certainly work on the ride up, and although there is a poke higher at H, it is only 3 ticks higher than my mentioned values, so a short on the way down would work too. I - The bounce here, at the overnight range high is just a co-incidence, but it sure might scare me out of a short if I took it at H. J - We drop below the range this time, so if I did a SAR and closed my short to go long, playing the range yet again, I might lose a bit on the long since I'd have to scratch that, but I'd still be in the money on the previous two trades. K - Because the range seems gone now, I draw in a SL. L - We have this lovely ledge here, and with a down-slopping SL, I favor a break out the bottom, which happens, for a whole 3 ticks! And then back up we go. M - We break the previous highs of M, but still stop shy of yesterday's high even. SUMMARY Man... what a day. We haven't even gone 10 points in either direction. I'm happy to be up $26, and I think that once I see we aren't going to be trending today, having a strategy for scalping and trading ranges should still make me a bit of cash. Gotta be adaptable I think! It is a shame we didn't go higher to test my channels, or a shame we didn't go lower to see what the drop would look like if we went below 83 because of the airspace. I can't stay for the afternoon so hopefully I'm not going to miss something good, but lets face it, I'm usually done after one trade! LOL N - Is this a bounce at the mean of the range I outlined earlier? Visually I notice lots of patterns in the charts, but I haven't done enough work to see if I can statistically cash in on what I see or not yet. When price was bouncing around between J, K, and L, this was also at the mean of the overnight range, so no surprise there. Means really seem to attract all the action to that level. Last point, going long right at the open would have been best. No way to know I don't think since the short looked more likely, but there really was a clear SL break and RET which could have gotten me in during that first bar at the open now that I look. I will mark it in as P (in green) (can't use the letter O again). It would have been at 87, one point above this bar right below P. SLA trades seem to work much better at the beginning of a move. Once its gone 10 or 20 points and you're 30 mins into the the trading session, SLA trades can chop you up in a range so I'm a bit scared of them, but if you know what to do about it, ie. stop trading, then this shouldn't cause me too much fear. Once again, statistically, in the long run, the profits add up, and the losses on the scratches are small compared to the gains, as long as you keep taking the trades as you should.
So I got up early today for the jobs report. Just prior to the news release, price was steadily climbing and then bam, shoots up, shoots down, jesus, nobody knows what to do! In the end, it settled right at pretty much where it started at 3896, having gone 4 points up and down. Yesterday we bounced off 83 in the afternoon, and I already had it on my chart as a level to watch because of a swing low on July 1st just before close, and this was also the mean of a hinge that was forming earlier, so it looked like a level that traders were dancing around and reacting to. PREP FOR JULY 3 Prior to the jobs report, price had gone from 88 to 96, essential climbed up in the top half of the range we have been in for the past few days, the range being 3883 to 3996. The jobs report on the way down bounced off the mean at 92 to settle around 96 where it started, but then continued to fall. Curiously, it started to get bought up at 92 again. Jesus, this is all so much about greed and fear and supply and demand. None of these moves make sense from a fundamental point of view. Only when you realize that you are throwing in a bunch of guys all eager to make money who are at the mercy of their emotions can you explain what is really going on. I might not be as far along as I would like, but I am absolutely sure that I am on the right trail when it comes to all the different ways a person can be trading. I will have to re-evaluate just before the open because right now, I have no idea which way price is going. We have support 92, and some resistance now at 3900, the mean of which is 96. We have broken above the previous day high, so this is also something to keep in mind I guess.
So including the jobs' report price action, here is what we have. A - Price shoots up, stops at 3900, then shoots down and stops at 3892, eventually settling at 3896, where it was prior, and also the midpoint of this action. B - After now a steady trek down, we bounce again off 92. This level is the mean of the overnight range, so price bouncing off twice now makes it a level to watch if price comes back down. C - We have a little bounce at the high from the jobs report, and although we break a DL, there is no short op. If anything, given the DL and the resistance line at A, I favor a breakthrough, which does happen. D - Having fanned the DL, it breaks again, and a short would trigger here. Doesn't go anywhere, and SL breaks. We are forming a bit of a range before the open. E - This level just below 3904 is getting tough to break, but we have a DL below slopping up, so I favor breakthrough, which is does, by less than a point before dropping though. With this behavior I'm watching, I always favor the breakthrough, but if it doesn't happen, the opposite action is likely as well, so doing a SAR is what I'm testing if it works just as well. Here shorting below 3904 would have been good, but clearly I'm not taking this as its not tested. O - The open provides very little. We do bounce off that resistance line at 3900, and we also go higher than the opening, but no definitive clue as to the direction yet. F - Favoring a short now, I put in a short order. Notice its actually one tick less than where it should be. Seeing as we are going above and below the opening, I am fearing a tight range around the open, so shorting at 3900.50 might just be at a level that makes price go back up above the opening, but its a risk worth taking. The tick lower is just me messing with the entry, almost hoping it doesn't trigger! (or if it does, at a level that validates the trade some more... which is this case should have I guess been below the low of the bar before, not at the same level) I draw in my first SL after my trade fills. I am getting in at least 2 points below the SL, so this means I will have to give this trade room. It does go instantly against me, but I'm not all that worried as I'm looking at other things to keep me in the trade, not the point loss. I notice at the end of the day that the big picture is price is either going up or down, it just takes a long way to get there. So here, until I see that price is for sure going higher, the short still shouldn't look too bad even if its above my entry level. G - It looks good after we drop below the entry, until we get to G. The SL is fanned as well, but after G, price just keeps rising until the new SL breaks. So now I have a problem. At the worst, I was ultimately down 3 points, but I kept hanging in, using the high at E as my "line in the sand". It wasn't good that we went above the opening high, but in the back of my heading I was thinking that this might just be a mean reversion day so visiting my entry price level again was very possible. H - Price does come down, and I'm out here collecting $36 profit. Of course its getting out far too soon, but I had no idea if the low at G was going to be the low of this trading range, and having spent quite a bit of time above my entry level and facing a loss, the opportunity to get out for a profit I had to take. There was clearly at least 3 more points to capture if I waited for a SL break lower down. Note that we go below yesterday's high (green line), and the overnight range high (blue line) I - We stop here and turn back up, breaking the SL. J - Here I mark in a possible short. I know we just broke the SL, but the bar above opens and closes on the low, so it looks as if this was just a RET. It would be filled for a short but shoot right back up. K - If I did go short, who knows where I would have gotten out, but if I was not damaged from this, going long here is a good op. If price goes above this bar to trigger the entry, we would then have a DL with a nice higher low. L - We have a bit of a dip down below the long entry, but this bar below L is another REJ bar that opens and closes on the high, therefore rejecting going down. This makes it another long op. Also note the blue dashed line. This shows the 50% level of the down move. M - We start stalling here, still below the ultimate high, but these ranges don't exactly turn around at precise levels, so I'm looking for a short possibly below these bars. None trigger, and eventually both DLs break. N - We do actually turn around at a tick below the high at E, and here is a classic SLA short. It works quite well for at least 4 or 5 points. I had a few minutes to get in here as well. The entry is at 01.50, and after price went down, it came back up a bit, so lots of chances to get in at the entry level. Once it dipped below 3900, it was clearly too late and then it would just be chasing. P - Price turns around at yesterday's high, but I don't consider this important anymore since the level has been breached a few times. Q - SLA long here, but no way would I go long just below this level at 3904 that is establishing itself as a good resistance level. R - Break of the DL and a short op. Doesn't go far, but exit could easily be made at BE or even a point profit. S - I draw in this lovely hinge forming. It breaks up, but just turns into a range. T - We really cannot seem to break 3904 for the time being. SUMMARY So today would have been a good SLA for the most part I think even though we are in a 10 point range. On the one hand I'm happy to have held on and come out with a profit on my one trade, but I also have to wonder if holding on through a loss that is much bigger than my profit isn't a habit that will do some damage eventually. I think my rationale for holding was solid. Since the short didn't continue down right away, we weren't trending, and if we would be in a range, waiting usually means price will come back to you. Of course price might have just continued up instead and trended higher, and this was a concern since we were above the opening level, but clearly I need to test this some more. I know I keep saying that, and since its a long weekend, I should hopefully have some time. Once the range was getting established I really should have gone ahead with more trades, but I guess once again, I wanted to keep what I had to end on a good note. Not a good strategy for making money at this, but perhaps its still decent baby steps on my way to becoming a seasoned veteran! Up $36.
PREP FOR JULY 7 First lets talk channels. Once again, I've got this disagreement between the hourly and daily as shown in the first two charts. No idea why they would be different, even though both are continuous contracts and both are built using the same parameters. The daily is more accurate I think, and having hit the upper line, its certainly reason enough to consider a short as the LOLR. Using the hourly data, the upper line hasn't been hit yet (but this is because that one spike used for the upper line shouldn't be so high given that on that day, the new contract was already the one with more volume and that highest price on that day was lower). On this hourly chart, I drew in a DL, which has now been broken, and there is a RET in there for a short right around 3908. Assuming that Friday wasn't an actual trading day, the previous full day shows a high of 3918, and since then, we have been slowly coming down. Overnight, price hit a high of 3915 and just below 3905, and as of right now, we are just above the bottom of this range. (I'm sad to say I wasn't able to do any work over the weekend. I wanted to compile just some simple stats about what happens when price is in a range overnight but opens at the bottom or top of this range and how this affects the session going forward. In addition to this, I wondered if there was any meaningful information to be gleaned from marking what the opening price is and if this has affect on the first 5 or 10 minutes which might set up the direction for the rest of the day. (ie. If price can't go above or below the opening price for the first 10 minutes, does this make it likely that the rest of the day will continue in this same direction) What can I say, making real money the hard way got in the way, which isn't a bad thing, but the sooner I do this work, the more confident I will feel at the open.) So going forward today, SLA will guide me. I see that Db posted the SLA trades for last week in one post, and although there are some cases of constantly having to enter and scratch, the end of the week looks to be quite positive indeed. I'm not prepared to sit through 5 scratches of 2 points each in a row, but I know that in the long run, this is a winning strategy. What I seem to be doing is looking for reasons to stay out of a trade or to stay in a trade longer, which might build on SLA to make it even more profitable, but lets face it, my profitability factor at the moment is quite dismal when compared to just blindly following SLA for a week. My SL just broke on this little bounce which formed the bottom of the overnight range just below 3905. Waiting till the open though to see if there are enough traders who want to pay more and bid price up, or if the bulk of the buyers are going to be lower down.
O - Here is the opening. After I post the chart, I will refresh the data to see how this changes. I'm bothered by the fact that even though I see his in real time and plot exactly where the opening is to the tick at 09:30.00, after I reload the data, this tends to change, which will of course mess up my back-testing when I finally get around to it! A - Considered a short here. Great RET on a the 15 sec, and it looked like a REJ of the opening. I do still have a recent DL drawn in, which you can see the remnants of, and also a SL from overnight. Since both are not that steep, either could really still be in play so not putting too much emphasis on this. B - We don't go far with the short, but an exit could easily be made for BE, or even a profit, and multiple chances for this as well. C - So we can't go down, but I also see resistance at going past 3911. D - Because of the higher lows at B and this resistance line at C, I favor a breakthrough which happens here. A long is considered at one point above the next bar, but it doesn't trigger. Price drops down quite drastically. E - After price bounces off 3907 again, we are clearly setting up a range, and its only 10 minutes in. F - I once again favor a breakthrough here, which we get by a whole point before going down to the bottom of the range again. G - Two bars after hitting this low, I really should be going long. The range is so well established at this point, perhaps too obvious by now so can it really work again to make our way up to the top? This is only a 5 point range mind you. H - SL breaks on the way back up, no surprise there, and since we are in a range, I'm really not following these lines too much, waiting for price to leave this range. I - Price turns around here, essentially the midpoint of this range. I wouldn't know it until about two bars later when we are back up at the top again, but perhaps taking into account that we couldn't even make it to the bottom again should be a clue. Often times, the lack of anything solid on the minute chart is actually a slow and steady move on a higher time frame chart, and at the end of the day, I'm surprised to see price has moved 20 points without it being obvious. J - Having broken the previous high of 3912 at D, placing a long here is justified trade. I hesitate because these waves can bring me right down again, maybe even right back into the range. Since we didn't open up in a strong trend, buying at the extremes is a bit risky. I notice I have a chance again on the next bar to still get in at 13.50. Of course as we pass 3915 I am starting to feel bad for not getting in! K - So just like I thought, we come back down again and touch the DL. Now this doesn't mean there is a problem with a long, and I could just as well go long here for the exact same price I should have earlier. But do I really want to be going long when price is coming down? Often I do see that buying or selling at the DL or SL is almost safer. You don't have confirmation as you do buying above or below the RET, but you're getting a better price if you expect the move to still continue, and if you're wrong, the exit costs less. Downside of this is getting into more moves that go nowhere. L - Just as I finish drawing in this lovely hinge, it breaks out the bottom. No way to get a trade in though. M - We stop at 11.50, which is both the resistance level we had to break earlier on the way up, but also roughly 50% of the move from the bottom to the top thus far (3907 to 3915). N - If I was still looking for a trade, which unfortunately I'm not at the moment anymore, there should be a short here. The drop down was a bit sudden, but if price comes down again, that should be confirmation. It does come back down and forms the lower high for our SL. This line breaks shortly thereafter. SUMMARY No trades today, which I guess is ok given that there was no good trend. There are some trades mind you that should have been taken, especially the ones that were above the range since it could have been the start of good move, so I am clearly lacking discipline. Today would have been a great day to trade ranges, and an excellent day for scalping. I imagine that once I've got a plan, it will essentially run like a checklist. Once it becomes clear that its not a good SLA trending day, I go into trading ranges mode and also scalping. I see so much opportunity here for 2 or 3 point moves, even 1 point trades with a very high win ratio. Good that I'm holding off though until I have a solid plan. Everyday I do think about how Db says that if you will be forward testing, this will take so much longer. I see this, and will get my butt in gear to do the work of hammering out somethings solid, but given the hectic schedule for me for the past month, I think trading SLA live, since its back tested and ready to go, is I think not too bad of an endeavor to move forward. I am learning about my strengths and weaknesses, and making the lesson that much better with real money. Plus, doing this live is actually helping me to come up with things to actually back-test. Don't you just love how I'm rationalizing for the sake of my ego!
PREP FOR JULY 8 We ultimately did head lower yesterday, but getting there certainly wasn't direct. The only thing I am bothered about is that hinge at the top that I outlined. I'm bothered because now I see it so clearly, followed by the drop and the little test back up to the apex that couldn't even get to the apex of the hinge, followed by an even bigger drop for a fairly good 10 point move. I was just about wrapping up at that point, but perhaps if I switched to a higher time frame chart, it might have been a bit more clear. Overnight, we have a fairly small range of 3898 to 3906, and once again, it looks like the open today will be at the low end of the range. We definitely do seem to be coming down from the high of 3918 that was hit a few days ago, so I do have a short bias, but this might certainly not happen during the time that I'm watching, so I should remain open to seeing what price is doing in the moment. That's it... got nothing else to say!
Well this sucks. Not that it was a bad day, but because my exit left far too much on the table. O - The opening is marked, and I noted the inability to go below 96.25 by the thick cyan line. A - Entered a long here that got to within a tick but didn't trigger. I had my short bias going into the open, but I was happy to have been able to put on a long within no time, and also of course happy that it didn't trigger. I also noted that this opening minute had 3,500 contracts traded. Its odd to have so many contracts traded, yet price didn't move all that much, and for the next two minutes, it even looked like it was going higher. Not sure what to make of all of this. I am trying hard to not use volume in my analysis yet since price still moves regardless, but perhaps one idea that I'm forward testing is that if the opening minute or two has fairly low volume, the day ends up not trending too far away from where it starts. Here we have almost twice what we have on some days, and the trend was quite strong. B - So we drop down fairly quickly, no trouble going through that little resistance line, and the previous day low. In fact, that little resistance level seemed prominent because it was just a tick above the previous day low, so the long at the open looked good, but dropping below now should also have been a big sign. I entered a short as marked here, got filled 2 bars later. Now I know it doesn't look like there is a RET there for an SLA entry, but I saw it on the 15 sec chart and something about the quality of this move looked good. I am getting in at already 6 points below the open, and 8 points below the ultimate high, so its about time to get into a short. C - When we got to here, I considered adding to my contracts, but didn't. I have to fan the SL a few times after this, but no worry, I am prepared for this, and looking for a higher low as a sign of trouble for my short. D - The SL break above here gives me a bit of worry since its just above a level at 83 that I have outlined which is from perhaps a week ago. There was no higher low that formed on the one minute chart, so after price drops below the previous low I can fan my SL again. E - Having cleared this level, I think about adding to my short again, but still don't. F - SL breaks again. The rise up is almost 5 points, but I managed to hold on before it drops down again. G - Once again, a break, and rise up of just under 5 points. H - And here I finally exit. Honestly, I wanted to see that $400 profit again, and it looked like we were just going sideways now so on this dip down, I dragged up my profit target and it got hit. So I'm out at $421 profit. Now of course deep down I knew that right after I get out, price would drop some more. My way of thinking is in the process of changing because obviously if price came back down to get to my target, this is a good enough reason to go short again, so why bother getting out of my short when the opportunity looks good to initiate a short position??? Furthermore, and this one is a bigger thing, I knew that looking at my 10 minute chart, as attached, we have this huge airspace between 83 and 53. I'm getting out at 70, right in the middle of nowhere. There is no reason for price to turn around here. But with price going sideways for 15 minutes, I just wanted my money. I - My gosh, look at this drop. Such an easy extra 10 points. Who of course knows where my exit could have been. As I type this, we have hit 55 and went all the way back up to 62, so this RET looks strong, and 55 is close enough to where I said the airspace ends. But my exit could for sure have been for at least 10 more points. SUMMARY Of course I'm happy about my $400 profit, but there was an extra and easy $200 sitting right there, I just had to hang on for mere seconds before exiting to see the further drop. What's worse is that my exit was my target getting hit, and from what I read Db write, its important to take yourself out. I completely agree with this, and I need to practice having control over myself, not giving control to the market. (I'm not doing too badly in this regard though) Db, if you're reading, its only because you discussed airspace way back when in some chat session that I was able to hold on for as long as I did. I should have held on longer of course, its looking like 55 was good exit area, at just above where the airspace would end, but trying hard to follow almost everything you say has gotten me to a fairly good place. I had a fair amount of confidence in waiting, and hopefully when I get around to doing some serious backtesting, I will gain confidence in some of the other stuff I'm looking at. So thank-you for all your teachings! My second problem of course was not adding to my contracts. Had I sold another one where I first indicated, that would be another 15 points, and then again at the second spot, that would be another 10 points. So 25 more points, even with my crappy exit, and that would be even more than the $400 I already made! Days like this won't come up too often I don't think, but a steady stream of 5 or 10 points on even half a dozen contracts each day is more than enough. (of course once I get to this level, I will see how far I can go... but the rest will all be gravy... way more than what I need to live on!) Have such a busy day today, can't stick around to see if this goes back up. And yes, 55 looks like the bottom, even a double bottom, so that airspace is gold, absolute gold!