So here is the truth. I was trading today with my real money account. On the one hand, I'm trying to practise what I think I know. On the other hand, I don't want to have a good day and miss out on some profits. Of course the other side of this is that the losses will be real. I finally got my SIM account up and running, so I could just as easily do this in SIM, which should be the plan going forward but just being honest here. Looks like I will have to buy a license for MultiCharts as my extension for the trial period will only be two weeks, and I thought that perhaps if I have a few good days that I could cover some of this cost! Yes, this line of thinking is completely inappropriate, and don't worry, none of this money in my account is money that is needed for food or shelter. So I'm not stupid, I'm just not disciplined enough and so far not much different than most amateurs out there. So before anyone jumps on my back, I'd like to point out that practically every trader on here has told me they used to lose money for years until they figured it out. I am currently down $3500, and although this isn't a good result, its no need to say how horribly I've failed. I simply don't care about those comments and you'll just be wasting your time to type it up. The reason why I post all this is to help others because these issues I have are certainly shared by many. I am keeping this journal real and its very much an account of the work in progress, and yes, it still is in progress and the goal is still very clear and attainable. Its true I don't have a trading plan, so this should save toucan and bh_prop from having to post! LOL By doing this, what I am seeing is not exactly an inability to understand, what I am seeing is how inadequate my instincts are in real time, and everything that I want to do or shouldn't do is actually not being put into practice. The journal entries and analysis I've been posting are a touch of hindsight, but often the trades are placed where they should be in real time, and since I don't care about the outcome when marking these trades, its easy to place them at the proper place that might feel wrong, but ends up being right. So lets go over the chart today with the actual trades complete with my little voice in my head. None of my post earlier about today is fake, its just incomplete. So going into the open, everything I mentioned was on my mind. A - When I outlined the first possible short, I actually took it. The thing is that I got in 1.75 points below the low of the bar above, not just 1 point, so this is a minor thing, but it still means the trade wasn't placed where it should be. Of course I know that ND points out that 1 tick might in fact be better. You might get sucked into some trades that you have to scratch right away, but this way, more trades might be able to be scratched closer to BE, and the profits on the trades that work will be 3 ticks higher. So this is for sure something to consider. The trade works for a little bit, but clearly it goes against me. I actually kept sliding the stop loss up so that it wouldn't be hit. I wanted to stay in longer because I don't want this constant in and out. B - At first I had my stop in my head at just above the high here. C - But then I thought I should at least wait until the high that was formed after the open at about here. D - As a final stop, I thought I would wait to see what happens at the OH. And this is where you see an exit... yes.. at the very top. I also thought at this point, why don't I just hit reverse. We are clearly going up, so lets get on this boat! So you see first a long for the exit, and then a long for the long entry. Now this clearly should have been done much lower. I have gotten caught in these short traps so many times but I still haven't learned in real time. Every time I think after the fact how I can see price rushing up but I'm just reluctant to either exit, or even hit reverse until we are much much higher. You see the exit down below because I know I'm going into REV at too far above where I should have. E - This short here now takes into account that we did reject the OH. Its nicely placed at 1 point below the low of the bar above, and I'm filled. Of course if I didn't exit that first short I put on, then as price is coming down I'm already making up my losses, but I'm at least not thinking too much about this, I am only focusing on going forward. F - And here is the exit. Only 2 points went against me, but now the fear is setting in. Of course price drops right after this, so once again my exit is just horrible, based purely on PnL. G - So now I try another short. This one is too far way just like the first trade. The low of the bar above is 80.50, so the short should be 79.50, but my entry is 78.75, 3 ticks worse than it should be. H - And here is the exit, breaking the high of the entry bar, but not the high of the setup bar. Once again, price drops even further after my exit. I - We ultimately come down to here, and this is the perfect higher low from earlier, but by now placing logical trades is a bit hard. J - One more trade here, this one is just a scalp. Its absolutely stupid how I would take a 10 point loss but only a 3 tick gain. I know its stupid, but this is the reality of what happens in the moment for me. K - So price just keeps going, breaking through that level around 4000 that I am cautious about. So now I'm just trying for another scalp. Here is a long I try, once again, not set up based on the 1 minute chart, but looking at the 15 sec. I'm not sure if I caught it on the way down because I'm fairly certain I would take profits at the top of the previous bar, but this one is exited for another loss. L - And here is one more. This one works in that I'm playing this tiny range. Its a limit order to go long as price comes down, and I just so happened to get lucky that I got a fill for a profit at the top. And there you have it. The final count is -$303. CONCLUSION Well I clearly shouldn't be trading, no need to be told this. My analysis after the fact is I think not too bad, but in real time, its horribly inadequate. Or rather, its what I do that is horribly inadequate. KDA mentioned to me that many people who found success in stressful environments like astronauts credit their success to lots of time in SIM. Once again, because I'm so pig headed I haven't done this. Not only would I have saved myself over $700, (I had two bad days now of -400 and now -300 in addition to some wins, but not nearly as big as this), but I also would have the practice of actually doing this in real time since this is how I'm struggling through. In my defense, I only got the sim working a week ago, but this is probably the route that is needed. I think going forward, I still need to feed the animal that wants to watch this in real time, so I will continue to do this every morning. But then after an hour or two, I need to devote the rest of the time to doing my backtesting. Some days I have to work so there won't be time left for backtesting, but its obvious I need to switch things up if there is going to be any real progress. I had really wanted to get into a trade and just hold it... just let traders do their thing. This is of course contingent on that trade not going against me, but I always want to just let it go for a few hours as this is clearly the way to make the bigger gains if you are trading at the right places as outlined by AMT. Since we are at the mean of the channel and since a side hadn't been picked yet, trying to get into this trade today as early as I did with my first short was just a bad mistake. I honestly don't think I'm that far behind. Its just a matter of placing the trades where they should be placed. Its a bit hindsight at the end of the day I suppose, but at least if you understand where the trade should be placed and how to manage it, then the only trick is doing this as you should in real time before you know how it turns out. This may of course be 80% of the battle, so in this respect I still have 80% to go.
I have attached a chart with what you say as close as I can given the timestamps. I of course think 3 guaranteed points for many contracts is wonderful... but since you're not saying how you do it... how can I learn? If this is watching T&S, I know nothing about this. What I have read is that watching the levels on the DOM that appear to show how many orders are waiting at each level is just all smoke and mirrors. So I'm not sure what to do with this info you provide... how does it help me?
Ok.. I didn't read about how you say that I should be trying out my trading plan, once its finished, in my sim account before I go live with it!
You know.... this back and forth about posting one's PnL if they are helping traders has me really thinking today. Of course full disclosure is nice, but being provided with a trading plan is more important as Db emphasizes. But here is what I'm thinking today. I look in the PnL thread, and I see posts in other places from RN, ND, Scaleout_Scalper and some other names and these 3k and 4k profits really make me feel quite inadequate. I'm not wanting to get all emotional here and cry out for a hug, but this point here really strikes me today. These PnL's are not helping me one bit. Today all I feel is that they point out how inadequate everything that I am doing is. In this respect, its almost a deterrent. I don't criticize anyone for posting them... and the internet is a wild jungle so I have to take everything with a grain of salt. But not only are these PnL's in no way consistent, often a week or two goes by before another one is made, but we also don't see the range of PnL's. We don't hear when these trader's lose 3k or 4k. Maybe they never do... who knows, but to be honest, as I think about this today, reading these PnL's make me feel inadequate, in no way help my trading, and more than likely provide a very false sense of what actually might be going on. So I'm not trying to make any major points here, but from my perspective, this is how I view this. Even if a consistent PnL was shown, this still wouldn't help me in the slightest if I can't get my emotions in check and develop good habits. So I've had it with this PnL debate... leave me out of it! EDIT: I should point out that what I mean to say is "how inadequate my TRADING is". I'm not suffering through a self worth issue, but lets not try and dig deeper... LOL
Ghost. Are you saying that the trade was not taken due to anything on the charts but suggesting he look at a 1min chart to try to work out why you took the short? I guess He's concentrating on methods that have at least been outlined somewhat. I don't think that post gives him anywhere to go?
Yes, that is correct... blotto doesn't look at charts or draw trendlines. He uses some technique to evaluate I guess where orders are absent and gets in on the cascade down I guess until we hit a level where the buy orders start to come in. Nothing wrong with it I guess if you have access to whatever info you need and he has his 83% win rate. ND mentioned once I think too that she knew scalpers who had a 90% win rate... wow.. imagine that! Perhaps the R:R was small, but that's a great winrate... good for the ego too! hahaha