Saturday | May 7, 2022 | Noon Noting the frequency with which currency pairs reverse direction at the outer limits of the eureka (45-minute) price range(s), and wishing to see such reversals more obviously and over a wider stretch of time than is possible on a one-minute chart, I switched to five-minutes, converting (or transposing, or translating) the 45-minute measures accordingly, but without altering any of the other indicators. Moreover, seeing as how the Bias Overlap version of NPP uses the five-minute dynamic price range envelope and six-minute baseline to highlight and define intraday reversals, I wondered if it wouldn't be easier to verify the authenticity of such potential/possible reversals on a five-minute chart. Indeed, this turned out to be the case. But, it also turned out that one of the unmodified indicators from the one-minute configuration was a perfect Price Projection Indicator on the five-minute chart... It should have been the 10-minute baseline. However, it was a proprietary indicator derived from an instantaneous moving average that was calibrated in a radically different manner than my other three zero-lag moving averages, and as a result, it does not match up exactly, so that when I compared it to the one-minute chart configuration, it turned out to be the 15-minute (not 10-minute) baseline! But the thing is, this proprietary indicator is a much better (i.e., smoother) indicator than the standard moving average to which it is "equivalent," which is the black moving average in the next image. See for yourself! Yet, this image made me wonder if it might not be even better to average the two, which is what I did, yielding this orange (center) alternative... Note that if the orange "Price Projection Indicator" is sloping in one direction, and price pulls back in the other direction, the rate will make a correction (unless a fully-fledged reversal is in progress) so that the indicator essentially highlights "guaranteed" successful trade entry points. So theoretically, if I enter a position every time candlesticks are forming on the "wrong" side of a slope, I should almost always make money. On a five-minute chart, these pullbacks are often simply the tails of candlesticks. But, on one-minute charts, their complete maneuvers are captured in all their glory. This appears to be exactly what I was looking for! To be honest, I didn't have the exact equivalent on my one-minute charts, so I tried out the eight- and 12-minute proprietary baselines that I DID have, and the latter measure worked better (i.e., was more "stable"). Here is an image of the old Price Projection Indicator (the thin blue moving average) compared to the new one... Clearly the new indicator does a far superior job of filling this role!
Note that when the old and new price projection indicators are synchronized, pullbacks into the yellow trade zone might constitute opportunities to execute profitable trades, especially via the PocketOption platform. So, look into this when you get the chance... If candlesticks go on to pull back behind the newer indicator without altering its slope, it is an ideal setup for a profitable trade via Nadex knock-outs. Hey! Dude! You're simply right back to where you started, with 15- and 45-minute measures. You just have a simpler configuration with a slightly improved indicator and with two scenarios from a different perspective rather than all those various scenarios from before... ...except that you DO want to keep the 45-minute mean reversion/regression toward the mean scenarios as two major potential trade opportunities. (You also need to reintroduce the lower-panel minimum threshold slope measures from before. They are just too prescriptive for you to leave out.)
Numerical Price Prediction Bias Overlap Protocol Sunday / May 8, 2022 You will almost always want to be trading in the direction matching the slope of the bold black Price Projection Indicator, which is an improved (proprietary) version of the 15-minute baseline... Generally speaking, this will typically match the side of the Price Projection Indicator on which the gray "old" or "original" Price Projection Indicator (which is the 4½-baseline) is located or positioned. Let's call this measure the "Price Projection Sidekick." And finally, this will also usually match the side of the Price Projection Sidekick on which the four green Instantaneous Moving Averages are forming—measures that obviously represent the one-minute trend (if such a thing can even be properly labeled as such). So then, when price pulls back behind the Sidekick under such conditions and then bounces off this statistical support/resistance level, it can offer an opportunity to execute a profitable trade, especially in the context of short-term binary option contracts (of the kind that can be purchased via PocketOption.com)... A reasonable take-profit target when entering such positions via a tradition Forex broker can be set at the relative band of the five-minute price range envelope, directly above the entry point, as appropriate... It is time to seriously considering exiting long positions as soon as the Instantaneous Moving Averages (not just the candles) crawl below the Sidekick, and to seriously consider abandoning short positions as soon as the Instantaneous Moving Averages begin to climb above the Sidekick. We'll label the Sidekick pullbacks shown in the second and third images as Scenario #1, and we'll name the two Price Projector pullbacks pictured below as Scenario #2. You can rejoin the 15-minute trend when the situation reverses... Scenario #2 calls for the Price Projector/Projection Indicator to be sloping sharply, or for BOTH the 15- AND 45-minute baseline/price flow measures to be in agreement, but it does NOT require that the Sidekick be in sync as well. For this reason, you do not necessarily have to wait for price to climb back above the Sidekick to execute a trade, as suggested in the above example. Rather, reentering a long position as soon as the Instantaneous moving averages begin hooking in the direction of the 15-minute trend is a defensible justification for getting back in the trade as well.
But remember, it is the 45-minute measure(s) that give you the "gist" of the general overall intraday price flow. So, always consult it/them before making any final decisions. It might be that the Price Projection Indicator is headed in a particular direction at a given moment, and yet, there may be no doubt but that the controlling intraday bias is in the other.
Scenario #2, where the Instantaneous moving averages dipped very near or below the Price Projection Indication was previous labeled as Scenario 4B and was written like this... "The 15-minute price range envelope is trending in a given direction and candlesticks are painting on the 'wrong' half of the channel." So again, the slope of the Price Projection Sidekick is irrelevant in such situations. Also, it would seem that the steepness of the slope the Price Projection Indicator or whether it is in agreement with the slope of the 45-minute trend is no so critical as the mere fact the eureka price range channel is headed in a particular direction, with price action taking place on the "wrong" half of the channel, so that some type of correction will be imminent (unless a fully-fledged reversal takes place) as in this example...
Scenario #1 was previous labeled as Scenario #5 and was written like this... "If the six-minute baseline is sloping upward, AND is positioned above the 20-minute baseline, AND candlesticks have pulled back below the six-minute baseline; then it is okay to enter long positions IF and when price begins exiting (i.e. coming out of) the pullback. Likewise, if the six-minute baseline is sloping downward, AND is positioned below the 20-minute baseline, AND candlesticks have pulled back above the six-minute baseline; then it is okay to enter short positions IF and when price begins exiting (i.e. coming out of) the pullback." Note that at the time, the 20-minute measures were regarded as the eureka indicators, and the 6-minute baseline was being used as the measure of reference rather than the 4½-minute indicator. By the way, the reason that the 4½-minute baseline appears to be slower than the dynamic 5-minute price range envelope is because the measures were calibrated in two very different ways. So, let me check to see what a more accurate reading on the envelope might be... Yeah, it's probably closer to around a four-minute price range envelope at about 0.5% deviation.
For Scenario #3, I'm going to use what was formerly Scenario #4A: The 15-minute price range envelope is trending in a given direction and candlesticks have made contact with or breached the side of the envelope in the opposite direction at 0.08% deviation. And for Scenario #4, I'm going to use this similar situation... The 15-minute price range envelope is trending in a given direction, and candlesticks have made contact with or breached the side of the 5-minute (or 4-minute) envelope in the opposite direction at approximately 0.05% deviation. (So then, the rate did not reach 0.8% deviation on the slower channel directly overhead, but it did reach 0.05% deviation at the top of the faster channel right underneath, as illustrated above. This was formerly Scenario #4C.) Scenario #5 (formerly Scenario 4D) will be the last of the eureka channel trade setups: Candlesticks have made contact with or breached the side of the 15-minute price range envelope in either direction at 0.18% deviation.
For Scenario #6, I am moving up to the 45-minute context. This was formerly Scenario #1. The 45-minute price range envelope is trending in a given direction and candlesticks have made contact with or breached the side of the envelope in the opposite direction at 0.10% deviation. Scenario #7 is the same thing, except at 0.30% deviation, and with the slope of the measure no longer being a factor.
Sunday | May 8, 2022 | 11:10 PM PST This GBPUSD short position will be my first Seven Scenarios based trade for a take-profit target of $7.00. It took about 15 minutes for the target to be hit. The main thing this trade had going for it was a decidedly bearish 45-minute price range envelope (45-minute PRE). The five-minute PRE turned against me, but only for a short period, so that I ultimately received my payout.
USDCHF looks good to me for a $6.00 knock-out payout based on a strong 45-minute AND 15-minute trend, with the rate crossing the 4½-minute baseline and beginning to climb up the top band of the five-minute price range envelope, suggesting a rejoining of the bullish trend.