Wednesday | April 27, 2022 | 8:15 AM PST Previously I wrote that the way to use any of this information to GUARANTY that I ALWAYS make money from my trades came down to pullbacks in the 2.86-hour trend to the upper or lower bands of the 45-minute price range envelope(s)… that this was the way to go! But, that wasn’t really true. After all is said and done, the fact of the matter is, the only measures that really count when it comes to intraday trading foreign currency pairs include the 45-minute indicators on down. It is the consensus opinion of these faster indicators that determines what I will decide to do in the final analysis. The moves I make depend on what each of these determinants means in light of all the others and how they all will affect and impact on one another. It is the interpretation of each moving part individually—and of all these assorted components as a whole—that constitutes the Bias Overlap version Numerical Price Prediction. Again, chief among these measures is the 45-minute price range envelope(s) at 0.10%, 0.20% and 0.30% deviation levels, which represents the anticipated breadth of values (or the "belt") constituting the swath of area within an unlimited field of values that might be observed. It depicts the general, overall flow of price action at the intraday level. (Recall the NPP often conceptualizes price action as channels rather than as lines.) Though this channel is understood to have a bias—either bullish, bearish or neutral—the shorter trend lines will actually fluctuate higher and lower within and between the “riverbanks” constituting the upper and lower boundaries of this channel. The most prominent of these shorter-term measures are the 13- to 15-minute baselines. Their bias is defined and confirmed by the "arbiter," the slightly lagging 23- to 26-minute baseline(s). Enter long positions as soon as candles begin paining above this primary arbiter; and enter short positions as soon as the candles begin maneuvering below it. Generally speaking, traders should probably stay out of the market (avoid entering positions) when the 45-minute price range envelopes are neutral. Ideally, it would be better to enter short positions when the short-term baselines slope downward beneath a falling 45-minute price range envelope; or enter long positions as the shorter-term baselines angle upward above a rising 45-Minute price range envelope. The 13- to 15-minute baseline(s) can help verify when the time is right to be in long positions. This is signaled when the upper band of the corresponding price range envelope clears and remains above the upper band of the 45-minute price range envelope. Likewise, the 13- to 15-minute baseline(s) can help verify when the time is right be in a short position when the lower band of the associated price range envelope clears and remains below the lower band of the 45-minute price range envelope. There is virtually no doubt in my mind whatsoever but that this is the final protocol. The numbers have spoken! So, in summary, it's all about interpreting what's happening in the moment based on market generated information, which is to say, technical analysis, and NOT in non-market generated information, which is to say fundamental analysis. It comes down to "ruling reason," another way of saying the numbers—the summation of all those correlating data points that are a part of the market generated information. In the end, there IS NO entering positions and walking away. Everything must be monitored as it unfolds, with very precise actions taken in response to very specific situations or sets of circumstances. As long as this is what I do, there is really no excuse for me NOT to make money every single day, of every single week, of every single month, of every single year going forward, God willing.
Wednesday | May 4, 2022 | 7:45 PM PST This trade, executed in the presence of a relatively neutral looking market in terms of bias/sentiment, was based on the eureka price range envelope, with the 15-minute baseline being the profit target, which will yield only a $2.00 profit after fees, if successful. Let's take this opportunity to repeat, or emphasize, that you should probably only execute trades when the lower-panel measure corresponding to the slope of the 45-minute baseline is above 0.09 or below -0.09—which it obviously is not at this time. UPDATE: The profit target has been hit. It is now 7:55 PM, so that took less than ten minutes. If you had made your target the bottom of the channel, it would have been hit at 8:05 PM and you would have made $9.00 instead of $2.00. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO WHAT YOU ARE WRITING FROM HER ON OUT. THESE NOTES ARE BEING RECORDED IN PREPARATION FOR YOUR ACTUALLY MAKING A LIVING DOING THIS, STARTING THIS MONTH.
Looking at this one-minute chart, it is obvious that EURGBP is very bullish right now. If you could be trading full time at the moment, you would be monitoring this pair so that you could buy it the next time it is coming out of a pullback. The "scenario" would go something like this: The 45-minute price range envelope is bullish. The 20-minute baseline is above the 45-minute baseline. Price action is taking place below the 20-minute baseline. The 2½-minute baseline has just formed an upward hook, suggesting that the pair is now exiting the current pullback. Candlesticks are now painting above the 6-minute baseline. BONUS JUSTIFICATION: A "fanning out" alignment can be observed in the 2½-, 6- and 15-minute baselines. Le's call this: THE EUREKA CHANNEL PULLBACK scenario
For now, the two other scenarios similar to the one above will be known as... First Level 15-Minute Price Range Pullback Second Level 15-Minute Price Range Deviation 15-minute Setups: Eureka Channel Pullback 1st-Level 15-Minute Price Range Pullback 2nd-Level 15-Minute Price Range Deviation
Note the following from your Guerrilla Trading System thread... You determined that for the 15-minute baseline, it looked to be approximately 0.20% deviation. So, as long as price remains within this parameter, if the pair is trending, you are likely to want to stay with it. Beyond this however, you'll need to watch closely for any signs that the asset is actually initiating movement in the opposite direction. ATTENTION: Let me remind you that the setting for the Eureka Channel Pullback scenario is 0.08% deviation, whereas the setting for the 1st-Level 15-Minute Price Range Pullback scenario is 0.16% deviation (0.04% deviation under 0.20%).
Wednesday | May 4, 2022 | 11:45 PM PST Here you used a Nadex knock-out to enter a long position fearing your take-profit target might not be hit given that the eureka price range channel was bearish. So then, why did you do it? Well, primarily because the 45-minute price range channel was bullish. However, the "closer" measure rules, which would have been the 15-minute envelope. So, shouldn't the trade have failed? But wait... don't stop there. The other reason you executed the trade was because the 2½- and 6-minute baselines were reversing to the north at the time, with price having been rejected by the bottom of the eureka envelope, and these measures were "closer" than the 15-minute envelope, which was reason to hope for the best. So, in this sense, the 15-minute channel was lagging, with the potential to eventually be pulled north by the faster measures, which is exactly what happened, so that you could have easily profited 10 pips more than you did by setting your take-profit target for the top (inner) band of the 45-minute price range envelope. Note also that at the time you entered this position, the measure for the slope of the 45-minute histogram in the lower-panel price anomaly channel was above 0.09, a major factor in anticipating higher prices! The other major reason/justification for executing the trade was that the 15-minute baseline was above the 45-minute baseline (with the center of the bullish 45-minute price range envelope generating a certain amount of statistical support for northbound legs of cyclical waves).
The pair never pulled back. How could you have anticipated this? Well, note that the measure corresponding to the slope of the 45-minute baseline in the lower-panel price anomaly channel had climbed above 0.09... So then, it would seem that this might be reason to nix waiting for major pullbacks and looking instead to enter positions following minor pullbacks in the 2½-minute trend line. BUT, ONLY SO LONG AS THE 15-MINUTE BASELINE REMAINS BULLISH!!! (Note that at the end, once the 15-minute price range envelope [not pictured] turned bearish, the rate discontinued its climb, even though the measure for the slope of the 45-minute baseline was still above 0.09.)
Thursday | May 5, 2022 | 12:08 AM PST I am going to purchase EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCHF knock-outs simply on the basis of the strength of their 45-minute trend lines. I purchased the second knock-out in each case, which places approximately $50 at risk in each instance. Moreover, the take-profit target for all of them is the same. I set it at a modest $8.00.
Also, the eureka price range envelope in each case was also very bullish or bearish, whichever was the case with the 45-minute channel.
(Crosshairs identify the entry levels.) USDCHF (long position) gave me my $8.00, but probably had at least $40.00 more to offer... GBPUSD (short position) gave me the $8.00 as well. But, it is probably a good idea for me not to have been too ambitious, because shortly after that, the pair turned and went the other way... EURUSD (short position) probably had about $20 more to offer than what I asked for...