If I had sat and monitored my charts all day, there would have been opportunities to make money. But, that's what it would have taken. In evaluating how it could have been done, I dropped the four-hour baseline and the two fastest moving averages. The 2.86-hour baseline is now the slowest moving average on my intraday day trading chart. Also, I have introduced what I call "the wave finder" to regulate entries and exits... Initially I thought today proved there's just no way to set trades and walk away and always be "guaranteed" success, but I think the wave finder has the potential to change that thought. Part of it has to do with trading in the direction of the slope of the "finder." But, still making money even in up and down markets will also depend on catching swings off the 13 to 15-minute baseline in the direction of the slope of the 45-minute price range envelope(s). Right now it's all a little vague. But, no doubt additional observations will gradually lead to the formation of an appropriate protocol... Buying and Selling off swings in the short-term trend and reversals in the wave finder: One thing I think I see is if you sell while candlesticks are painting above a down sloping wave finder, you should eventually make money. If you don't , the trend has just reversed direction and you should now be able to make money by entering a long position instead (and vice versa).
This is...like...the 20 to 25-minute baseline. Moving to one-minute charts, complement the 45-minute price range envelopes with the 20-minute price range envelopes, which are more precise/accurate; except that the 45-minute measures paint a more valid/reliable picture of where price will ultimately head in the near future. (This morning's trading has gone very well, However, I will not include any details since I am now trading my live account. Suffice it to say that after three days of live activity, I am currently enjoying a 40% return on investment (ROI), thanks be to God.)
Friday | April 22, 2022 | 2:30 PM PST WAVE FINDER As of today, I am of the opinion that the most practical, actionable intraday direction on a one-minute chart is halfway between the 45- and 20-minute baselines. That puts it at about 26 minutes. Consequently, the 45-minute measure has lost the prominence it once held as the main moving average dictating in which direction to enter positions. Nonetheless, its associated price range (moving average) envelopes maintain their importance by defining the levels at which reversals in the short-term (8½-minute) trend are most likely to occur. The 20-minute price range (moving average) envelopes do this as well, so well in fact that for a time, the region that they defined was labeled as “The Eureka Price Range.” However, the slope of the former/slower price range paints a more valid/reliable picture of where price is ultimately likely to go in the not-too-distant future.
Remember, the purpose of the slower measures is not to tell you in which direction to trade in the moment, but in which direction to trade ultimately. So, let's take a look at yesterday's directionless market with this in mind... Skip the eight-hour measure because it is too slow to be relevant. Start with the four-hour measure, even though the slowest parameter you were using today was 2.86 hours. See! Note how even though yesterday was an up-and-down market, before the arrow, the fact that the instantaneous moving averages were above the 2.86-hour baseline AND above the center of the four-hour price range envelope, let you know that you should only be looking to buy the pair (longer term)... Then, after the arrow, the fact that the instantaneous moving averages were below the 2.86-hour baseline AND below the center of the four-hour price range envelope let you know that you should only be looking to sell the pair—longer range. I think this is a valid way to interpret the slower charts. Look into this further! See if this will help to ensure your daily success rate remains above 80%, between 85% to 100%; and also, if it helps you to stay in trades for the long haul to enjoy full payouts rather than a mere dozen or so pips profit... and if looking at the slower charts in this manner will clarify in which direction to trade, even when the faster charts haven't got a clue. Also, add outer bands to the hourly price range to establish the extreme levels at which to set and/or enter Nadex knock-outs. Again, this could possibly aid in keeping your daily success rate at nearly 100% AND at maximizing the returns you are able to generate using these knock-outs.
Saturday, April 23, 2022 Proverbs 15:22 says, "Without counsel purposes are disappointed: but in the multitude of counselors they are established." Proverbs 11:14 states that "Where there is no counsel, the people fall; But in the multitude of counselors there is safety." Accordingly, there are a number of questions to be answered (i.e., measures to be consulted) when interpreting the market using this newest "bias overlap" methodology of price prediction, with those that initially occurred to me being listed below, with my next step probably involving prioritizing them in order of importance... Is the four-hour baseline actually trending (sloping) and if so, in which direction? Are the 3- and 2.86-hour baselines above, below or straddling the four-hour baseline Where is price in relation to the innermost and outermost upper or lower band(s) of the 3-hour dynamic/adaptive price range envelope(s)? Where is price in relation to the standard 3-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation? In which direction is the 45-minute baseline angled? Is the 45-minute baseline pulling back or surging? Also, does the associated lower-panel, anomaly channel oscillator meet the minimum 1.14 level? On which half of the four-hour price range envelope is price action predominantly taking place? Which signals are in conflict, if any? Which signals are in agreement, if any? Right now, I'm thinking the most important question of all when it comes to Nadex Knock-outs is: In which direction is the four-hour baseline sloping, if at all?
TO DO! As soon as you get the chance, to mimic this measure on the faster charts, adjust the parameters of your proprietary three-hour dynamic/adaptive price range envelopes to the more extreme levels, and monitor the 45-minute baseline for when to enter positions as price is rejected off these levels by statistical support or resistance.
Sunday | April 24, 2022 | 7:15 PM It appears that, hypothetically at least, a trader could make out quite well (again, theoretically) simply by entering a position every time price crosses the center of the six and two-thirds hours price range envelope. This is because the chance that such a crossing will turn out to be a fully-fledged reversal is just about as likely as it is that the maneuver will turn out to simply be a temporary pullback. So then, the trick is to monitor whatever price action follows and exit the trade as soon as there is a reversal in the 45-minute trend. This could happen almost immediately, or it could be delayed until a hundred pips down the road, etc. But wait! Can one really base this tactic on the 45-minute baseline? I ask because the 45-minute measure does not even appear in this form on the faster/lower time frame charts—where it is represented by an envelope rather than a moving average—with the 13- to 26-minute moving averages (the measures that actually govern exactly when to enter and exit positions—not the 45 minute baseline) navigating or oscillating up and down between the opposing "riverbanks" of the envelope. (Forget about the baseline!) So then, how is this going to work from a practical standpoint, which is to say, when using the faster/lower time frame charts to actually decide exactly when and where to enter and exit positions. The fact of the matter is, you can’t use the 45-minute measure, because it is just too slow/lagging. Moreover, basing whether to go long or short on which half of the four-hour or even the three-hour price range candlesticks are forming is also a sure way to guaranty traders will fail to act in a timely fashion. In fact, the slowest measure that will offer the minimum amount of accuracy and precision required for this task (i.e., determining market bias/sentiment from a practical short-term trades standpoint) is the 1⅔-hour (100 minute) baseline, which is more of an "ultimate" direction intraday general price flow measure rather than serving as a true baseline. This means that, in the final analysis, the more immediate intraday trend is conveyed by the 13- or 15- and 26-minute baseline(s). Again, ideally they should match the slope of the 1⅔-hour baseline. Consider also whether price action is taking place on the upper or lower half of the 45-minute price range envelope, and then the three-, four- and six and two-third hour price range envelopes (see the image above). And then finally, consider in which direction each of these envelopes is sloping, if at all. Blah, blah, blah… This is all well and good, but what I want to know is… is there any way I can use any of it to GUARANTY that I ALWAYS make money from my trades? If candlesticks are painting in the upper halves of the price range envelopes, odds are that price will continue rising, but not necessarily—especially if it's already at the top of the range, in which case, there is an increased probability it will reverse direction and fall; though again, there is nothing to make it do so, or to keep it from climbing even higher, regardless. Well… if there IS a "Holy Grail" in the bias overlap methodology, I would have to say that it is the 1⅔-hour baseline. As long as this measure is angled upward, a trader should stay long, and vice versa, even if the faster measures are going the other way (or go ahead and lock in the available gains, if desired). They will eventually turn around (or the1⅔-hour baseline will immediately join them going the other way). So, in summary, what you are looking to do is enter positions as the 13- through 26-minute and/or the 45-minute baselines reverse direction from a course opposite that of the 100-minute baseline to one aligned with it. It's as simple as that (I think).
Pullbacks in the 2.86-hour trend to the upper or lower bands of the 45-minute price range envelope(s). This is the way to go!
Monday | April 25, 2022 | 2:00 PM PST So, I think this just about covers it for Nadex knock-outs. The next step is to see how quickly I can grow the associated trading account. There's nothing much else to add at this point.
This was an error. You were SUPPOSED to have plotted the four-hour price range envelope. (You made a mistake when you converted the configuration down from 15-minute charts.)