Tuesday | May 17, 2022 | 1:15 PM PST Given that there seems to me to be what I view as an overall general 70-minute intraday trend, the thought I had was, “Does it not follow that a trader should be able to reap the greatest amount of return by entering trades when this measure reverses direction?” But the problem is that often, rather than reverse direction, the 70-minute price flow goes into a consolidation or accumulation pattern. And who knows once this sideways price movement is over, whether the asset will go ahead and turn around, or whether it will resume heading in the same direction. It was traveling before? So then, attempting to trade reversals in the 70-minute baseline is not a viable alternative. However, something I DID see that looked promising was in this trend’s pullbacks rather than its reversals. So, what I'm going to do next is analyze or evaluate these pullbacks more closely. (I'm recording all this in a spiral notebook right now, because I don't have my laptop with me.) If I find that they constitute reversals in the 12-minute trend that can be verified using the five-part verification process listed in Post #86, I will code an alert and begin trading this setup exclusively. Or… If these reversals involve identical 15- and 105-minute temporal support or resistance levels and reversals in the five-minute baselines, again, I will call it an alert and begin trading this setup exclusively. This means the set of conditions I originally planned to trade (i.e., two-minute pullbacks in the 15-minute trend?) will be suspended due to their being at least one alternative that is just as likely to yield successful outcomes, yet is also more likely to generate even greater returns.
Look! Here is an example of the above setup, and what happened? A false positive! Price action faked a reversal, then immediately dropped down and repeated the same maneuver (see the orange circles). THIS TACTIC/TECHNIQUE CANNOT BE TRUSTED! You have to use the five-part verification protocol, where the green instantaneous moving averages cross to the other side of the yellow seven to eight-and-a-half minute baseline; and the yellow baseline crosses over to the other side of the purple twelve-minute baseline, etc.
Yikes... Dude! It's because you left the units for the positioning of the arrows on "value" instead of changing them to "pips."
Let's see what your new temporal support/resistance comparison indicator said about this situation... Wow! It's saying that these two indicators are looking at things from a couple of completely different perspectives, with the second identifying six possible trade opportunities where the first saw only one—yet one that did not even register on the radar in the latter situation. (I like the temporal indicator better. Plus, when the signaled price action is over, it appears you can often anticipate the rate trending in the opposite direction.)
Seventy-minute measures, 12-minute measures—whatever... Remember, it is still the 20-minute baseline that reigns when it comes to Nadex 2-hour binary options. So, NEVER send in an order regarding a 2-hour Nadex binary option that contradicts the 20-minute trend. NEVER!!!
Should this be changed to 15 minutes, now that you've made the 15-minute price flow the new backbone of your intraday trading (not to mention the importance you've assigned to the 12-minute price flow envelope)? Yeah, I just looked at my charts, and I'd say a more precise updated guideline would be to never contradict the 12-minute price flow, and if this measure changes while in the middle of a (binary option) trade, give very serious consideration to abandoning the position.
Note that the 20-minute sentiment is confirmed by the six-minute baseline's location or position being in sync with the 20-minute bias.
Wednesday | May 18, 2022 | 2:30 PM PST I didn't start live trading today. Instead, I'm looking at my charts and going, "Based on everything I know, what would be the surest way to day trade the Forex market successfully?" This is what I'm thinking... The 15-minute trend is king. So, I've coded an alert that will signal when a pair paints a "miscolored candlestick" and I will use this signal to purchase two-hour NADEX binary option contracts during their second hours and to test purchase short-duration binary options via PocketOption.com. The two-hour baseline is the "fastest" relatively stable intermediate-term moving average, so I will use its slope, along with the slope of the 30-minute price range envelope and the relative position of price within it to enter positions when rates are on the back end of the overall general intraday sentiment. Based on recent comments, one might expect me to choose the 70-minute price range envelope (which took over the job previously handled by the 45-minute price range envelope due to the latter measure not evidencing sufficient stability) for this role. However, the 70-minute measure is far too lagging. The 30-minute price range envelope is a happy medium between the former "go-to" baseline (i.e., the 45-minute MA) and the current reigning monarch (i.e., the 15-minute MA). Just "eyeballing" this configuration subjectively, I feel really good about it. Moreover, I realized it was lacking the 1.75-hour temporal support and resistance levels, which I have just now added, and now I feel even better about it. It's...like...REAL obvious in which direction price is flowing, and where the good entry points are. But, lets see what happens tomorrow when I try to evaluate everything in real time, as it is all unfolding in the now...
...a couple of things to think about with respect to the new 15-minute chart configuration: If the slope of the 30-minute baseline is greater than 0.2308 or less than -0.2308, there is a very real chance that you are looking at a trending asset. The same can be said of any currency pair where the 1.75 hour temporal support/resistance floor or ceiling is pushing into (and thereby shifting) the upper or lower band of the 30-minute dynamic price range envelope. I'm seeing both of these thinks right now with USDJPY, currently at 127.92. But, this is a time of day when the markets are not all that active. I'm therefore expecting to see this pair stall for several hours before making any significant moves.