Trading MSTR

Discussion in 'Options' started by aplino, Dec 7, 2024.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb


    upload_2024-12-9_22-3-36.png
     
    #11     Dec 9, 2024
  2. How about this?....

    If you have the capital.....

    1. Buy MSTR @ $390
    2. Sell Dec '25, $550 Call @ ~$150

    If MSTR continues higher, you make the gain from 390-to-550 + the call premium

    Depending upon how price goes, may work even better if your broker will let you write the call naked. Whether covered or naked, there's a scenario that can cause heartburn (one if the price drops too far... the other if it goes up too fast through the strike. Worst case scenarios can be hedged, of course.)... so best keep paying attention.

    In either case, you're protected down to the stock at $240.

    Any flies in this ointment?
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2024
    #12     Dec 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  3. taowave

    taowave

    TOS looks at a 100% upside move or an 80 percent downside move...

    If you have the cash to handle that,you are good to go

    FWIW,Ild but a Put spread against that..

    Proceed with caution



     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2024
    #13     Dec 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.
  4. I believe their price per bitcoin before this purchase was $54,810...keeps on climbing.
     
    #14     Dec 9, 2024

  5. That's just a long vertical spread..the payoff looks bad though which is why I avoid spreads. If price were to reach $540 by Dec18 on a 390 Dec27 expiry you make 7k for risking $4800.

    (I have not double checked these numbers)
     
    #15     Dec 9, 2024
  6. johnarb

    johnarb

    It is a good thing I'm not a financial advisor as I'm slightly more bullish than your price projections...

    taking my base case price target for bitcoin by Dec 2025 of $300k/btc

    I think mstr share price will be at least $1,500/share split-adjusted from today

    600-700k bitcoin in mstr treasury, valued at $180-210B,, 2-3x mNAV

    bitcoin going to $500k or higher and/or mNAV going even higher, pricing in growth and bull market sentiment... $5,000/share or higher is not impossible

    since I'm only a visitor ET lurker poster, feel free quote my base target mstr at $1500/share by Dec/2025

    this post is not financial advice and for entertainment purpose only, of course,
     
    #16     Dec 9, 2024
  7. I'm not making any projection as to price... and I'm no longer a financial advisor.

    However my possible highlighted play applies only up to $550 price, if at all. And if you made this play... and if your MSTR were called away @ $550, maybe take the proceeds and rebuy to do it again at higher prices?

    If MSTR were to continue to $1500, there would be multiple similar plays on the way up.... and for the option writer, the faster it moves up the better.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2024
    #17     Dec 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.

  8. Lol are we pretending that bitcoin will never go down again??? I hope you are allowing for a possible retrace back to sub 50k even if we hit 250k. :)
     
    #18     Dec 9, 2024
  9. What are you talking about called away? You posted a vertical spread...you wouldn't have any shares to call away.
     
    #19     Dec 9, 2024
  10. taowave

    taowave

    Its a synthetic short put you num nut...

    Can you repeat what you wrote in english and check your math??

    You should stick to selling a put or buying a call..

    everything else is above your pay grade..


     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2024
    #20     Dec 9, 2024
    johnarb likes this.