I have been trading for quite some time now spending countless hours developing system after system based on indicators, chart patterns, etc. and reading every book I can find on the subject of trading. Just when I thought I knew what I was doing... I crashed and burned. My systems proved worthless as did most of what I read. Perhaps I didn't give these things enough time? Is trading ultimately a 50/50 bet assuming you use stops? Are there proven methods that actually produce 70% or greater results? If so, what book? What trading coach should I look up? I have been to Tony Oz seminars who seems to want to promote his realtick Oz scanner (which I have tried). Linda Bradford Raske seminars who uses many methods. Larry Williams, Robert Deel, Tom DeMark seminars. Joined chat groups like the Underground Trader and David Floyds room. Nothing is really giving me better than 50/50. What's next? I want, like most people I feel at this site, to become a full-time trader. I just don't know where to go from here?
This may not be what you want to hear but 50% 50% is great. Just control the losers. basically what you really will be doing is cutting all the losers quickly and treading water until some positions go your way... some in a big way. Most of your profits will be from 10 % of your trades.The other winners will offset your losers... *You must take all your trades and must be consistent. scalping is a different story. NK
Some of those traders you mentioned will tell you it has less to do with the method and more to do with the trader using the method. I see this happen week after week with different traders that concentrate more on the method as you have been doing. (Note: I'm only assuming you have not been concentrating on yourself as a trader because you never mentioned anything about such in your post...you only talked about the methods.) If you ever get the chance to watch a successful trader trade for a minimum of a few weeks in front of your own two eyes while they use a particular method or several strategies... It will be extremely difficult (I'm not saying it can't be done) for you to duplicate his/her success the following week on your own while using the same method or strategies. The true goal for you should be to understand how that method is being used, how is it being manage from one trading day to another trading day that's different and how that trader interacts with the markets... these are things you aren't going to find in books, seminars, scanners, indicators, chart patterns nor chat rooms... all you can do is learn the strength and weakness of the method... while concentrating more on developing yourself as a trader. That's where you should be spending countless hours...on yourself as a trader and how that trader (you) interact with the markets. Also...from all the different areas you seem to have traveled among... I would suggest its time you spend time with a successful trader...in person...one-on-one... watching how its done via whatever method he/she is using... while spending most of your time analyzing who that trader is as they move in and out of each position. Look there first to see what it is that your missing before taking on another method. Have you ever seen comments like this by one trader to another trader at forums... "That's a trend based system...it'll never make money over time because of the whipsaws..." A successful trader will know when to use a trend system and when to be on the sidelines when those whipsaw conditions start appearing... A successful trader will know when to increase their size during trend conditions while reducing their size or not trading at all during whipsaw conditions... My point is this...the guy that made the above like comment will fail at using a trend based system because he/she has already programmed themselves to attempt to use it in a whipsaw market condition... while another guy using the same system will continue making profits. All the above about what I've said is subjective and philosophical.... but you truly won't understand what I'm talking about until you spend time with a successful trader...one-on-one... as that trader makes profits from many of his/her trades in front of your own two eyes. I guaranteed you'll see a trader that interacts differently with the markets than you do... regardless if you know every indicator, every chart pattern, read every book, visited every signal chat room, attended every seminar et cetera. Therefore...those few close trading pals you know in person or online that are successful...start spending more time with them during actual trading... one-on-one to help you put the puzzle together. Now you know where to go from here if you have not done the above approach during actual trading while watching that trader move in and out of each position!!! Once again...don't be concerned about their method...you've probably have already read about it or even used it...they may even have the same books that you have or using the same chart patterns and indicators. NihabaAshi
I enjoyed your post very much. I too have been struggling with daytrading for quite a while. I've read nine books on the subject and found that none of them contained anything useful. I was on a site yesterday (traders gallaria) where they were offering daytrading cd's for as much as $750 and wondered if these were worth anything. Consequently, you're comments about seminars and such were well taken and I would like to thank you for that information. So I think that I'll keep plugging along until I find what I am looking for. Once upon a time, I had a system that had a very high probability of success but doesn't work anymore. I thought I could arouse a considerable amount of interest among the ET'ers with it and so I posted it. It was a gold mine for a short while. What did I get in return? Two negative comments. Regards and good hunting.
Nice post NKNY. Solace, if you are a newer trader, and were doing well this spring and summer but then crashed and burned this August..... DO NOT presume that you know nothing. Much of August was ruthless. And it very well could extend for the next 2 weeks. It has been the same for years. Most methods depend on some type of trend to develop, even if for a short while. But the herky-jerky days of August will hit those methods hard. Even if you are just daytrading, if you aren't scalping, most methods need some follow thru longer than the next 30 moments. NKNY's post is right on the money.
Fear not, all is not lost yet! You still haven't tried Brandon F's TradingFrom MainSt.Com, Teresa Lo's website, Walther's (amazing) "Trading Times" or Don "King" Bright's (yes!, the real Don Bright; not an alias) Trading Tours. I'm sure one of them will have the answer you're looking for! Go for it!
There is no way that someone is going to attend a seminar given by a successful person and walk out with a way to make money without adapting the mental strategies/market perspective of the successful trader. Your mind has got to be in the right place. You would have to adapt their entire "belief" system in order to duplicate their success. Successful trading is not an A, B, C, type of thing. If you went to a Tiger Woods seminar, and he told you his method of swinging the club. Would you be able to duplicate his success? Well, you would have to adopt his mental strategy, mental state, market perspective, and belief system, If you did that, you might have a chance, depending on still some other factors. The success comes from the inside, not the outside. Wish you the best, gotta_trade
Solace, you've probably already tried enough different methods. Try changing your approach to the markets. Find a predominant trait in the market you trade e.g. tends to trend, tends to breakout from low volatility, tends to be range bound, etc. Then look at the best method you have for the trait and find the environment when the method does the best e.g. trend following does best when markets are not range bound, range bound does best when markes are not trending, etc. Then code those conditions into your method so that you only look to take trades when a predominant trait is setup by current market conditions. Work on it until you're satisfied with the expectancy of the one method. Once you have one method, start a second one for secondary traits,etc.
Or you can go this route. http://www.iitm.com/ultimate_trader_program.htm Instead of charging you $45,000, he'll only charge you $25,000. Whewww, what a guy. (Now there's someone who is making make himself accessible in order help traders)