falconview, do your pnl a favor and don't mask "hoping and praying" with "time" very slippery slope....
So you go from what you perceive to be "no risk".... to a very speculative high risk directional overnight play? Makes no sense whatsover falcon.
Falcon... right now you are at 1.89 bid on the calls. Based on your math of breakeven being 2.35 with 10 contracts...you are down $ 460 on call side... net with profit from put side you are currently down $ 175... or 7%. If aapl blows it out...your absolutely right...QQQs should explode and more than likely you'll be able to liquidate pretty quickly.... THAT IS A BIG IF HOWEVER! If aapl surprises... look out below. I really don't understand how you were glowing with your perceived no risk benefit of a straddle play when you are currently doing an about face with a gambling directional mindset now. Mind you... doing so in the hole currently at 7% behind the eight ball. Do you realize the concern here?
Riff Raff If necessary this is a month long trade. It is you guys who are fixated on short term fluctuations in the market, the noise or flutter if you will. I´m trying not to trade flutter and noise. I´m not watching the premiums dance around, you guys are. I´m looking at the trend and the trend within the trend. We have two different mind sets here. I´m responding to your comments, because I really thought you were interested. You don´t seem to be interested, except in a quick time frame, like one day or something? It is one thing to take a quick profit in a short time frame, but another extrapolation to assume this is the end all, of a three month straddle. Think at least one monthly bar, or maybe two. I´ve been trying to look at your comments and opinions and then checking with the market things I would normally never do. To figure out where you are coming from? I´m not worried, why should you be? I see commenting on daily stuff, or intra-day stuff only obscures things. I think I´ll just skip that and let the thing go as needed, whatever time frame that is, or becomes. e.g. as an example haven´t even looked at my cash long CALENDAR this week yet. Don´t plan to either, before Thursday. It´s a 4 or 5 day trade. Why watch it? Sorry about that, but we are on different wave lengths, or cycles, or whatever they call it. I appreciate your concerns though.
Fair enough Falcon...u r right-- I am very short term. However-- u do realize u were in error thinking this is no risk play...?
Riff Raff I don´t accept your intrepretation at all. Whether Appl goes up or down tomorrow, only means one thing to me. If it goes up, I will be closing off the straddle as a completed deal. If it goes down, then I will not be interested in any adjustment until the trend finishes and the volatility dies down, so I can lock in the difference by buying PUTS. That scenario would maybe mean a day or two, perhaps longer. At some point that down trend will stop, the volatility will start to die off, from the PUTS and I can then re-establish the straddle, though it most likely will be a STRANGLE then. Once back in either a STRANGLE or a STRADDLE I can buy and sell and adjust the sides. I´m already ahead by 11%. Now I would work it by adjusting to get it up to 20% possibly. If you can do 20% a month, I think that is a pretty good return? Not there yet, but I´ve done this with overlapping straddles for several months, using them solely as straddles, which returned about 3%. Never lost. The whole point is not to take a loss. The straddle, strangle is perfect for that. Like a tennis ball, the market bounces up and down. It does so in short term fluctuations. But overall, the average of those bounces follow a trend, either a longer one, up, or perhaps down. This works out to the high/ low of your monthly bar. Which in the QQQ is about 5 strikes. Now we are in a sideways market and maybe heading for a bear market. The bar might be longer. It doesnt really matter, either way. Thats why you trade a strangle or straddle. The strategy stops theta decay pretty much. With that on your side, you can buy and sell either side to balance it off. Thats my current theory anyway ( laugh). I´ve noticed when trading overlapping straddles, that a strong trend move will occur sometime, mostly unexpectedly. It´s just a matter of waiting. Keep your buys at low volatility, your sells at swollen premium, and it should ( fingers crossed ) work out. ( grin ) Stop bothering me with short term bounces and movements please. It is distracting. I don´t care if I´m winning or losing $200 on an intra day fluctuation. When it gets to be a $400 or $500 fluctuation, THEN I´M INTERESTED, but only to SELL to take a profit.
I don´t think there is going to be any market movement today at all. Everybody is waiting on APPL earnings to move the market. I´m reading a couple of books and checking every hour or so, to see what is what? Be interesting tomorrow.
Falcon... your thinking is flawed. You are NOT up by 11% by any means shape or form. If you were, your account balance would reflect a higher balance right now compared to what it was prior to establishing the position. Currently on your $ 7500 your account is down over 3%. Don't use smoke and mirrors in justifying your trades. Why in the world would you buy puts AFTER a downtrend finishes and volatility dies down??? Makes no sense. Remember-- you are new at this. Im not. Your looking to dig yourself a deep hole. Never lost? Famous last words. Im done here. Good luck.
Riff Raff You make me think alright. I did make 11% on the puts of the value of the trade and the trade is still ongoing. Until it is closed there is no loss. But there we differ. Give me a month and lets see how this works out. I´m tired of debating this. You may be right but until I try it for the second time, I won´t have a more clear idea. Buying PUTS is to stop theta decay. Then you can also Delta Neutral the trades. Which changes the whole trading scenario.
Ok cool-- time will tell. Buying puts has no impact on theta decay however...word to the wise. What u have going for u however is the fact that calls and puts only lose about $.01 per day right now this far out. There is always theta negative impact when u r long....albeit how small it is or how much time is left. As an example-- the Junes have $ .02/day.