Yes, you're right. I have been lucky to offset...The limit bid is 8500 lots right now. I don't know if there will be another reverse. Even if I hedge with other products, I have to do it right after I got stuck 'cause if I do it at the end of the day, the instruments will be priced fairly and will hedge just a part of the main loss.
(1) September is ~35-cents higher. December is probably trading ~5-cents above its limit. (2) Since September is in delivery, it trades without limit. If you were to really, really, really get in "trouble", you could scalp/trade Sep as a way of protecting yourself if you see it moving 40, 45, 50, 75-cents or a dollar higher. (3) If you see the Sep trade down to ~29 & 3/4-cents higher, the market might be able to knockout the pool of unfilled buy-orders and plunge lower. (4) If you believe that, consider putting in a sell-stop in the December at 805 & 1/4.
Yes that's right and it can all change in the seconds approaching the open. At the time I wrote there were offers below limit with no bids above but I doubt you would have had much of a look in at the open. Good to hear you got out. There was a USDA report on corn I remember a few months back and market simply locked down on the open 3 or four days in a row, instantly, so be careful just looking to take a few tics on a pullback it doesn't always happen
Great thoughts, but is it really different this time? Looking at a 25 yr chart of W this looks like the usual spike that briefly lasts and then plummets. So you think we are setting up for a new plateau? BTW can you rec a good site that covers all these fundies? Thx. P.S. Shorted YW at 830 tonight just for fun
Question about ECBOT ZW options. Can't figure out when these things trade. On IB I got bid/ask quotes tonight about 7-8 pm EST. Went to get something to eat, came back and the bid/asks are all gone like the contracts are all asleep. WTF? From CBOT website: <i>Trading Hours Open Auction: 9:30 a.m. - 1:15 p.m. Central Time, Mon-Fri. Electronic: 6:34 p.m. - 6:00 a.m. Central Time, Sun.-Fri.</i> And you gotta love those bid/ask spreads of 60-70% like 9 bid ask 15. Nice.
At the time, there was a 480 ask 20 ticks below the 780 limit offer. I just thought it was a reverse clue and placed my bid in between. I got filled, definitely lucky, 'cause of a 780 market short at the open( don't know what the guy is doing now )...I looked at the book yesterday afternoon and all I could see was a growing bid( 31000 at a time... ) Kansas City Wheat got limit up too, so i couldn't hedge with it... I would probably have taken a few calls but i would have definitely lost a bit on this thing. Now, I'm working at "not to get caught" in these kind of things Thank you all.
I'm out on da short. Too crazy. Replace with long - why fight the trend? Long Dec07/Short July08. Next crop will be massive.
Ct-2 Looks like a serious bull. I do not trade Wheat or Cotton for the record. But man, you guys are gona have some good days ahead.
This will stop the bull market in wheat dead in it's tracks............."Wheat will hit $13/bushel before soybeans."