Hi, This journal is about everything I need to do to be successful in the market. I hope everyone can benefit from it.
1. SNP 500 had a good up day on Friday and is on top of the BB and if it can stay there for a few days, we can be on a trending market again. It's above all the MA and looking good.. 2. Russell 2000 is a bit lagging cause it's in between the 20MA and 50MA but ok so far. 3. The Financials are also a bit lagging but it has a resistance at 15. A break above that with a confirmation would it be very good for the bulls. 4. Oil Sector are staying slightly above the 200MA and if it can get away from there, it should continue higher. 5. Semis has also a major resistance at 33. A successful break above that and it will look great. 6. Bonds are still in a decent trend.. we need it to break below 50MA and that would be awesome for the bulls As you can see, there's plenty of reasons why the market could go higher. The biggest challenge for ruining the bulls party are the commodities. They are way below the 200 MA. Also the bonds needs to start breaking down. In conclusion, the market is looking good and a little consolidation would be very good for all of us..
I forgot to mention.. I am a daytrader so please know that everything I say is on a short term basis..
Aug. 7, 2012 1. SNP 500 - Like what I said yesterday, it would be good for it to consolidate and today was a good start. 2. Russell 2000 - I like that it's above all the MA now. a break of 80 would be good for the bulls 3. Financials - I said yesterday that it had a resistance of 15 and it hit that resistance today and came back down. that's ok.. a bit more consolidation here and it should break 15 soon. 4. Same for the Oil sector.. it just needs to relax or even pull back a little bit.. 5. Semis - Again I said 33 was the resistance and it hit it today and came back down.. That's fine as long as it doesn't go down too much in the next few days. 6. The commodities were up today so that's good.. Still way below the MA but hopefully, it will catch up. Transports still stuck in between the MA. 7. Bonds are still hugging the 50 MA above which is a concern.. Hopefully, it can break that 50 MA so it will give bulls confidence. In conclusion, I am definitely bullish but we are overbought so we need more consolidation and even a slight pullback would be great.
Aug. 8, 2012 1. SNP 500- This market doesn't know how to relax and keeps going up.. We are in so overbought now that a pullback is necessary or there won't be much opportunities. Good if you're a swing trader though. 2. Russell 2000 - it broke 80 today but closed below it but that's ok.. Just needs to rest.. 3. Finanacials - same as Russell 2000.. broke 15 the closed below. that's alright. 4. Oil Sector - Again, in overbought position and needs to rest. 5. Semis - Broke 33 but did not close below it.. Even better.. 6. Commodities were also up which is nice to see.. As you can see, the theme is the market is overbought and needs to digest this very rapid move up.. Tomorrow is time to relax and not be aggressive to buy.
In fact, not only should we not be aggressive to buy, my strategy for tomorrow is to short stocks that are over extended. You have to know what strategy to use in different market conditions.. For example.. Right now, the market is overbought so you don't want to buy stocks but either wait till the market consolidates or short stocks instead.. Remember, this is a day trade only..
Aug. 9, 2012 1. SNP 500 - I was hoping for a pullback today but the market stayed up.. As long as it's not moving too much higher, that would be fine.. A pullback tomorrow would be nice though.. 2. Russell 2000 - On the other hand, I would've liked Russell to have moved even higher today so it can catch up to the SNP. 3. Finanacials - its staying just below 15 and hopefully it will breakout in a few days. 4. Oil Sector - nice consolidation today.. I would prefer it to pullback to the 200 MA before moving higher.. 5. Semis - opposite of financials, its actually above the 33 resistance and holding.. 6. Commodities - Again, same story.. lagging and it lagged today.. Lets hope they catch up. Transports too needs to catch up.. In conclusion, the theme for tomorrow is a pullback. The reason why a pullback is good for the market is it will refresh a lot of stocks and gives us more opportunities.. You never want to catch a train that's already moving so you wouldn't want to buy a stock that's gone up already..
Our trading tactics couldn't be more opposite. I always buy strength with as much velocity as possible - buying the train right after it has bolted out of the station, pegged on overbought! Interesting journal. Thanks for posting your thoughts.
I buy on strength with velocity also.. When I was talking about the train moving, all I meant was I don't chase stocks.. For example, a stock breaks out of resistance and I missed the move, I move on and look for another set-up. A lot of people still chases a breakout and thus getting hit on a reversal..
Aug. 10, 2012 This market is very strong and the bulls are confident. 1. SNP 500 - The market is digesting the big move but we are still overbought. Like I said yesterday, I would love to have a mild pullback. 2. Russell 2000 - I like the move up and is looking better. 3. Finanacials - this is hugging the 15 resistance. If everything goes to plan, it should break the 15 resistance is a few days. 4. Oil Sector - This has been very strong and strong again today.. I'm happy with the strength but it needs to rest. 5. Semis - This is even stronger than the Financials. It broke 33 resistance and keeps on moving higher.. 6. Commodities - I'm happy to say the commodities were very strong today which is what I was hoping for as you can read from my previous post. In conclusion, I'm happy with the consolidation of the market but we are still overbought.. You ask how do I know we're overbought??? If you look at SNP 500 chart, we are way above the 20 MA. We would need the 20 MA to catch up before we move another leg higher.