Confidence might not be 100% ? How confident is he ? He might be willing to bet 95 to earn 5 ? His confidence would then be 95% certainties. According to past performance: 5/25 is 20% chance for a losing month, Two consecutive losing month is 0.2 squared (4%) Which sounds like a winning bet 5*0.96 - 95*0.04 = 1
True, but by your inferences, he should be profitable since March 2009 when this raging bull market started but he is not.
NQ has been in the garbage (non-trendy) zone for 3.5 hours. In fact, the whole world financial market is in the garbage zone. I'd sit on my hands. Perhaps it might move in 1/2 hour time, when the Americans are awake.
Yes, that’s right. But even a 4% chance will eventually be hit, if you go on for long enough. Still, doesn’t sound bad, as you say. Sorry to see it, and wishing you better luck with the next one (and well done for cutting the loss and not adding).
Keep up the good work TKT. Nice to see real trades. Perhaps keep posting such while it's fun then ofc stop. Most of the feedback proffered on this site/thread is absolute garbage, from people who don't make money. Will now proceed to offer my own garbage feedback: consider developing a side passion so that one's sense of self-worth doesn't hinge on this soulless video game that we all practice. If ever dark thoughts of seppuku return, it may be time to drop everything and plan a hike up Mount Jiri or some major adventure.