There is no way to tell / predict how far crude oil would go. In this particular trade, it was unfortunate crude oil (and copper) just went up a little. And the other intercorrelated futures (eg DAX, NQ ....) went up significantly with max RR ratio of ~ 6 for DAX and NQ. Well. This is life / trading.
Thanks Max again, I think I spent at least 2 years back a while obsessed with automated trading, developing auto strategies that would have a very high winning ratio with 1:1 risk ratio, or a decent winning % with a very good return over risk ratio. I gave up automated trading but some of those strategies I still use today manually. I really developed all kind of strategies even for 100 tick charts, drawing all kind of trend lines from top to bottom, but I wasn't able to find the "it" strategy. It helped me get better I think but I don't have a fixed "entry" strategy with a fixed return/risk ratio or fixed winning probability. Now to make myself clear since I named my account "top" trader: - "I am definitely UNABLE to make a profit on every trade" - "I am definitely UNABLE to make a profit every day" - "I am confident that on a "month" basis I would probably be on a profit" - "I am more than confident that I wouldn't lose 2 months straight" - "I am more than confident that a losing month's "loss" is not big enough to damage the account so that trading could not be possible anymore, in other words, I could lose a month but I don't blow up my account and on the long run I will end up positive. So let's see how it goes... it's just day 1. Btw, at least in Korea 99% of people who trade futures end up with dead accounts, so I thought that if I'm suriving that ratio I am at least in the top 1%... just saying....
TopKoreanTrader, if you use any of the links available for trading journals and link your broker to them, you might be able show a very nice journal, so you only have to share a link. If you do that you will stand out from the 90% of journals of this website. I might even become a fan.
Why so confident of this? As you’ve lost on 5 of the last 25 months, why don’t you assume that at some point you will have 2 consecutive losing months?
Hi Drawdown, not sure I fully understood you. If you are referring to what I use to trade I use a company named "Samsung futures", here in Korea we have weird regulations, it would be illegal for me to send money abroad and trade with Ninjatrader. So we have no choice but to use one of the regulated Korean big companies. I am confident because IMO out of the 5 months I lost, at least 3 I really consider them unlucky. So really it should have been 2 months losses and not 5 months. Plus I usually have many more winning days than losing days on an average month so unless I keep adding contracts to a losing trade going "vendetta trading mode" I should be positive even monthly basis. So 2 months consecutive... hmm it just shouldn't happen.
I meant that you can use these trading loggers: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/resources/categories/trade-logging-analysis.10/ Not specifically those, just those or similar ones. So you can get a report with your trades. It does help for people to follow you.
I hope that proves correct. I hope you won’t mind my mentioning that “out of the 5 months I lost, at least 3 I really consider them unlucky, so really it should have been 2 months losses” really sounds to me a far from ideal basis for projections. I wish you nothing but well, here. Don’t want to sound alarmist but some of what you’ve said just above, in conjunction with the mentions of “addiction” and “adding to losers”, limits my optimism for you. Good luck, but take care!