Big Bummer. I for one hope the trading slows down soon as I very much enjoy reading your posts. I consider your insight and commentary to be valuable trading tools that have improved my ablity to trade. Thank you very much for the posts you have done and the time you have taken!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! All The Best
SEANOTE Thank you for your kind words and on sharing your personal knowledge and perspective of trading the markets. I think many of us are learning today what speed and execution, is all about. You do it so good !!!!! Now that we have sea the note's coming in daily, your friends were right for calling you SEANOTE. All The Best To You. Perr
Here are some PM questions over the last few days that are good observations. Question -- Was yesterday's 390 point Dow loss also a 90% down-day? Answer -- No it was not. A 90% down-day is significant because it identifies true panic-type conditions. Every analyst is now mouthing the word, "capitulation," and "capitulation should clear the air," and "what we need is a capitulation day." As usual, these people don't know what they're talking about. A 90% down-day is a day when down-volume is 90% of the upside plus downside volume AND ALSO down-points are 90% of upside plus downside points. Furthermore, in a bear market 90% down-days usually come in series of four or more with short often explosive rallies separating each 90% down-day. So far, we've yet to have the first 90% down-day. Question -- How low do you expect this bear market to go and how long should it last? Answer -- Although the Dow Theory bear signal came in September of 1999, the high for many stock averages came in the year 2000. So let's say the great bull market started in 1982. This would make it an 18 year bull market. Most major bull markets are followed by bear markets that last about a third as long as the preceding bull market. On this basis, I would expect this bear market to last about six years, taking it to 2005 or 2006. Almost all big bear markets of the past have wiped out at least half of the gains of the preceding bull market. On this basis I would expect this bear market to take the Dow down to at least 6500 and probably considerably lower. But it's not all going to happen at once, and it's not all going to happen this year or next year. It won't be that easy. Question -- If we have a series of say four or more 90% down-days, where could this major leg of the bear market leg end? Answer -- This is a tough one, but I'll guess below 7000, and it will end somewhere between now and September-October. When this major leg of the bear market ends, I would expect a very big, tradeable rally which would end sometime next year. Near the highs investors will finally become bullish again. But they'll be wrong, and they'll be too late. From that rally high I would expect the final or C leg of the bear market to take begin. This final huge down-leg should be the most painful and costly leg of the bear market. I would expect this final C leg to take the Dow down well below 6400 to a point where both the Dow and the S&P would be selling for considerably less than 10 times earnings while at the same time they would have dividend yields of 5-6% or even more. In other words, blue chip stocks will be selling at GREAT VALUES. Question -- Do you mean to say that what we've been through since 2000 -- is just part of declining wave A, of an A-B-C bear market pattern? Answer -- That's right. All the action since 1999-2000 to the present is part of an unfinished A leg down. Then we should have a corrective B leg which will take the bear market to a high points somewhere next year. The B up-leg will have everyone (all the "experts") announcing and believing that this is a "new bull market." From there the worst part of the bear market will materialize. This will be the final C leg, which will take the bear market down to its final low. This final C leg will generate the greatest amount of losses, because so many people will be aboard, and because I believe that the C leg could literally destroy the mutual fund business.
Heard an approximate market call [ early gues s] for this year and usually ignore those 150 day trend guesses. Interesting however, Richards' market guess showed up on the 5 day + intraday charts .Helped,reguardless of year end. Rich Bernstein said something like -bear market trend with tradeable rallys . _____________________ ''Enjoy your read'' Alan Greenberg- Bear Stearns
That's what Richard Russell said, "mutual fund industry could get destroyed" Well, certainly decimated.
IMO - BUY So what's to like about Citigroup. For starters, a PE of about 9, a yield of about 2.2%, and a chance to pick up the stock at a price lower than it has been during the past three years. In the latest quarter, Citigroup repurchased 38 million shares of its stock (about 1% of its outstanding shares). It also announced that it would buy back an additional $5 billion worth of its shares. But that's not all. In the latest quarter, revenue was up by 10%. Its most recent earnings beat Wall Street views by a penny, not bad in this difficult economic environment. Profits at its consumer business (credit cards, retail banking, and lending) grew 25%. Profits at Salomon jumped 23%. It's property and casualty business showed a year-over-year drop, however. A focus on the negative aspects of Citigroup would be a mistake at these prices. Joining the lemmings would be, too. If you don't have the stomach to step up to the plate, at least put the stock on your watch list.
Citibank,unlike most whale size banks,is highly flexible and wise. The charts reflected that yesterday. Looks like there may be a good uptrend until about $ 35.oo reguardless of the timing of uptrend. ----------------------------------------- Like A aron Schindler said,something like , resistance [ $35 for example] is a zone not exact.
institutional side of citigroup is likely reason sellers are all over this stock...exposure in credit default (and other otc derivatives-off balance sheet) is why hedge funds are playing the short side...the retail/consumer business does not show this exposure at all.... tried to sell citi, jpm and aig in the spring...continually stopped out...right about the companies but not NEARLY enough money to fight the owners...