Trading Journal - July

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Seanote, Jul 1, 2002.

  1. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    The S&P Composite has been down 12 of the last 15 weeks. This is what I call "urgent selling." Urgent selling is often equated with bottoms, even if they are only temporary bottoms. We never got the sort of fear and pessimism that is characteristic of great bottoms.

    Nevertheless, anytime a major average declines on 12 out of 15 weeks, that ratio expresses a certain amount of bearishness. Let me put it this way -- 12 weeks out of 15 on the downside is very unusual.

    On Friday the McClellan Oscillator turned positive (plus 29) for the first time in six weeks. This is a definite change, and it must be respected. The normal expectation would be for at least a few weeks of McClellan action on the upside and maybe more than a few weeks.

    Keep in mind that the monthly charts which show a bearish head-and-shoulders patterns in both the S&P Composite and the D-J Utility Average. These formations are long-term bearish. They tell us that the bear market potential is still very much there. But the trouble doesn't have to start next week. The S&P has not broken support yet -- support comes in at around 950.

    All the above considerations singal that a secondary correction or bear market rally could be at hand. The advance could last as long as a month, but it will be vital to judge the quality of such a rally -- IF IT OCCURS.
  2. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Covered 3K IBM @ 71.00

    + .91 points
  3. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Covered 1800 TTWO @ 19.89

    +.65 points

    Covered 500 TTWO @ 19.86

    + .68 points
  4. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    MLNM - BUY

    Reasoning: with a double bottom in place, MLNM has bounced and should rally from these levels

    Stop: $10.55
    Target: $14.75
  5. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Long 4000 MLNM @ 11.70 (avg)
  6. moffitt


    Good morning. From your commentary it sounds like you are leaning to the long side for the next few weeks. Do you expect a rally?

  7. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    I think we will have a small rally stretched over a week or two, which will be the second bounce into the correction, then the bears will take over. Depending how far down we go and how quickly will determine how soon we will bottom out. I'm not looking for a true bottoming out for quite some time (many months, maybe a year).
  8. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Long 2400 IBM @70.15
  9. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Long 600 IBM @ 70.13

    Total: Long 3000 IBM @ 70.15
  10. Seanote

    Seanote Guest

    Closed 3000 IBM @ 69.70

    - .44 points
    #10     Jul 1, 2002