TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TheRumpledOne, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. NO, price does NOT move sideways. For price to move, it has to change. The only two possible changes are increase (up) or decrease (down). If price does not change, then it does not move.

    YES, trading sometimes is "educated" guessing but it is still guessing. No one knows with 100% certainty what will happen next.

    Thanks for posting.
     
    #71     Jan 15, 2012
  2. Gorgar

    Gorgar

    TRO,
    I know you like to "milk the cows" at opening on the stock exchange but what is your favorite time frame to trade the FOREX?
     
    #72     Jan 17, 2012
  3. Gotta love these first time posters...would that be TRO?
     
    #73     Jan 17, 2012
  4. Gorgar

    Gorgar

    No, I'm not The Rumpled One. Just a noob trying to get educated and I'll ask you the same question. What are your favorite trading times? Do you trade exclusively when the volume is high (crossover of London and New York) or do you see opportunities at other times?
     
    #74     Jan 17, 2012
  5. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #75     Jan 18, 2012
  6. I usually wake up around 7 - 8 AM EST. That is when I look at my gauge to see what pairs are within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. I usually start trading during the London/NY over lap.

    My favorite time to trade is when price is within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low.

    I usually don't trade the Asian session.
     
    #76     Jan 18, 2012
  7. I have been posting on trading forums for about 10 years now. How about yourself?

    Your posts are not ON TOPIC. Would you PLEASE stick to the subject?! Thank you for your cooperation.
     
    #77     Jan 18, 2012
  8. 33 - 20 = 13


    [​IMG]


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #78     Jan 18, 2012
  9. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #79     Jan 19, 2012
  10. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #80     Jan 20, 2012