TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TheRumpledOne, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. Trader13

    Trader13

    Thanks for this clarification. However, this strategy made more sense to me based on [my misunderstanding of] reversals at high/lows. It seems quite arbitrary to be long-only or short-only without any context of trend. I suppose it could still be effective with good exit technique, which would be the real key to making this work.
     
    #231     Jul 15, 2012
  2. NoDoji

    NoDoji

    TRO, I have a printout of that rat study in front of me daily as a reminder to "stay the course" at all times. My swollen brain has always had a chronic tendency to search for a Holier Grail, to attempt to eliminate uncertainty in a field where the only thing 100% certain is uncertainty :p

    Mark Douglas wrote an entire book, the crux of which is:

    "The placement of the food is randomly determined (Fundamental Truth 1: Anything can happen), but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty percent of the time (Fundamental Truth 3: There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge; Fundamental Truth 4: An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another). As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate (Principle 4: I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation; Principle 7: I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them. ). The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. (Fundamental Truth 2: You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.)"


    T13, one of my strategies (automated) involves a single trade each day, and it can (and often does) run totally contrary to everything in my core trading plan. It has no regard for trend or lack thereof. In other words, it will buy into the top of a range, short into the bottom of a range, short off new highs, long off new lows, long following a huge run up, short following a huge drop, and will also trade smack dab in the middle of nowhere. The only requirement for entry into a trade is X (like the mice who learned to always go left, I always take hallway X), and if X triggers a position, I target a profit at favorable excursion Y (food), and take a loss at adverse excursion Z (no food).

    Clearly this appears to be a totally random environment in which to trade profitably. However, the dice are rigged: My research determined that if X triggers a trade entry, Y is likely to be attained around 60% of the time. Couple that with positive R:R and it's a strategy that has yet to experience a losing week.

    "The strategy you choose to trade really doesn’t mean all that much. There are successful traders who trade with a trend, trade counter-trend, trade with tight stops, trade with no stops, average down, average up, trade complex strategies such as option spreads, trade simple strategies such as breakouts. There are just as many total failures who attempt each of these.

    It’s not the method or style of trading that improves ones chances of success. It’s the research, development of a trading plan, and sufficient practice that make or break those who set out on the path to trade for a living." - NoDoji

    Great thread!
     
    #232     Jul 15, 2012
  3. [​IMG]

    Every "trend" reversal will start with a "price turn" pattern on the chart.

    Identifying this pattern on all of the time frames will help you select trade direction.

    I prefer to trade with the WEEKLY direction rather than against it.

    When price turns against the weekly direction on lower time frames, I wait.

    I will enter when price turns back to the weekly direction.

    It is even better when weekly and monthly are in sync.

    All you have to do is LOOK at the charts and SEE!!
     
    #233     Jul 17, 2012
  4. [​IMG]

    Some people understand better in English than in pictures, charts, tables, etc...
     
    #234     Jul 18, 2012
  5. tro, what platform do you use? Have you used the rat reversal before in automated trading? Maybe this will be better than daily candlesticks while you are at your rural home.
     
    #235     Jul 21, 2012
  6. WHAT IF YOU WERE COLORBLIND...

    [​IMG]

    Could you trade?

    [​IMG]

    Does that help you see when PRICE TURNS?
     
    #236     Jul 23, 2012
  7. I use several MT4 brokers for live feeds. When I trade Forex, I use MB Trading.
     
    #237     Jul 23, 2012
  8. Hosea, so the monies you save in Section 8 housing in Antioch, CA allows for the purchase of a Huayra? It's not Huyara, BTW.
     
    #238     Jul 27, 2012
  9. :eek:
     
    #239     Jul 27, 2012
  10. Video on Price Turn Multi Meter

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/i7EoODYeaSc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    #240     Aug 10, 2012