TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TheRumpledOne, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. No, I don't know about your idea. Please elaborate so all may benefit.

    No, I don't code EAs.

    I understand your point about density distribution.

    "In other words, the prove is in the price action that follows, not in the frequency of the numbers output in a window, which are not attached to any quantifiable historical price action."\

    I am not sure what you mean by that statement. The frequency distribution IS the price action.

    Do you have a thread where you discuss your ideas? We can continue the conversation there.
     
    #141     Feb 17, 2012
  2. [​IMG]

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #142     Feb 17, 2012
  3. Unfortunately, my trade logic actually works - so I don't share it with the public at large. In other words, I'm a real trader with valuable trading ideas, as opposed to a programmer/developer hoping to acquire valuable trading ideas.

    "All," can't benefit. If they did, then it would alter the natural tendency of the trade logic itself - which defeats the purpose. The purpose is for some people to make a profit, while the majority does not - and maintaining majority participation in the future. The whole ball of wax hinges on that principle.

    Thus, really good trading ideas, can be quite dangerous in the wrong hands.


    Why not? In particular - why not code an EA based in the strategy you outline here inside this thread. Wouldn't that simply, once and for all, shut-up all the critics?

    You could do it two different ways. You could run the EA and then post the back-tester report in full. Or, you can run the EA live each day and simply post the results like this:

    [​IMG]

    It would be so easy to do, TRO. These are the results from last night, based on one of the EAs that I developed. Rather than post pictures of charts, why not post the real results take from either the back-tester itself, or much more fun, taken from the account history itself in forward-testing, the most important kind of test there is, TRO?

    You really should, TRO. It would be an eye opening experience for you, I think.


    I'm glad you do, TRO. Because, for a minute there, I was thinking: Gee, does this guy really know anything about statistics, or is he just pulling my willy wonker for fun! I'm glad that the former, rather than the latter is true of you, TRO. :D


    It means that the proof of the viability resides in the account statement, at the end of the trading day, not in the statistics posted on screen themselves.

    It really means, that you might want to start posting back-test results, or far more bold, post the forward-test results in the form that I posted mine above. Clearly, you can see from my pic what actually took place, as opposed to a chart that really doesn't say much about how you were involved in the trade.


    For the reasons stated above, no. But, that's only because my trade logic actually works and it is therefore, off limits to anyone else but me at any real level of detail - like how I use it.

    Oh, gee! See what you made me do, TRO. I missed my Friday Close! So, MT4 won't let me close the last position for the day. Well, here it is anyway. You can just add the net total of these two pics together, to get today's gross profit/loss.

    [​IMG]
    Plus (+)
    [​IMG]
    = Results

    It sure would be nice to see your strategy results posted the same way I post my EA results, TRO.

    Bye!
     
    #143     Feb 17, 2012
  4. Tango and Phenom, from your post count here it seems you are new. Not sure what brought you to my thread. But it appears you are not here to glean any information. May I suggest you start your own threads so you can spread your wisdom there.
     
    #144     Feb 20, 2012
  5. [​IMG]

    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #145     Feb 20, 2012
  6. [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    FIBS uses a fixed percentage, the RAT ZONE uses a fixed amount. You can use a frequency distribution on both.
     
    #146     Feb 20, 2012
  7. Hello,
    Have you ever used your trading systems on stocks or are they geared just for forex? Thank you.

    Tim
     
    #147     Feb 20, 2012
  8. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

    THINK ABOUT IT!!


    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

    STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

    POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

    2) The "within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
    #148     Feb 20, 2012
  9. [​IMG]


    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
    #149     Feb 22, 2012
  10. [​IMG]

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the
    forum. Thank you.
     
    #150     Feb 23, 2012