TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TheRumpledOne, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. tommo

    tommo

    I like the KISS approach.

    But I can assure you money management is not an edge. Money management just keeps you in the game longer.

    The premise of this approach seems to be" price is either going to go up or down, so if I have a 10 pip stop and a >10 pip target overall I will make money", sorry that doesnt work.

    If you had a 10pip stop and a 10pip target you would on average have a 50% win/loss ratio and would be flat ticks after 100 trades, however you will be down from costs and slippage.

    If you had a 10pip stop and your average win was 30pips you would on average win 33% of the time and be break-even on ticks (after a large enough sample, say 100 trades) but you will be down costs and slippage.

    You HAVE to have an edge to push you past the random entry and costs involved in trading. To use the average win = 3x greater than your stop loss example, you would need to have an edge that pushes your win rate up from the 33% you would achieve through coin flipping. You would need to make a statistical "prediction" that is correct 6-7% more times than random.

    This is achievable, with respect Rumpled One, your approach does introduce some sound concepts in terms of money management, but your focus should be more on explaining WHY trading a breakout of a previous bars high or low has a statistical significance.
     
    #101     Feb 12, 2012
  2. xiaodre

    xiaodre

    Actually, sound money management is an edge.
     
    #102     Feb 12, 2012
  3. "The premise of this approach seems to be" price is either going to go up or down, so if I have a 10 pip stop and a >10 pip target overall I will make money", sorry that doesnt work."


    Why do you think there are no real P/L statements in this thread.
    :D
     
    #103     Feb 12, 2012
  4. It is not a viable system that is why he is trying to make money off the videos and then donations for the "code".

    He does this all over the internet in various forums.

    BTW, don't ask a question on the forum as he states....he will never answer it.

    Someone give this man a job!
     
    #104     Feb 12, 2012


  5. He says not to PM him with questions and to ask them on the forum.
    However if you ask an intelligent question, you will not get an intelligent answer, just avoidance of anything that might show the emperor has no clothes.
     
    #105     Feb 12, 2012
  6. TRO,

    Taking into consideration your programming skills and the simplicity of your rules. Howcome there are no automated results or backtesting statistics supporting the positive expectancy of your technique ?

    FoN
     
    #106     Feb 12, 2012
  7. Surely he is not asking money for one line of code:D

    I think more likely is that he simply trying to share.
     
    #107     Feb 12, 2012
  8. I beg to differ.

    Some of the indicators in his website are donation only, aka pay only.

    And then there's this http://themaddashforcash.com/tro/

    Not judging, just informing.

    Crazy A
     
    #108     Feb 12, 2012
  9. Oh, well, there you go. This discussion ended quickly:D
     
    #109     Feb 12, 2012
  10. TheRumpledOne

    * The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.

    When the chart pattern/whatever you use for entry (in a selected time segment) trends 50% of the time or better long/short , you have a winning strategy - when using stops and letting winners run.

    * You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).

    When you know what range to expect after entry, you can know where to get out.
     
    #110     Feb 12, 2012