TRADING IS SIMPLE ... (TheRumpledOne)

Discussion in 'Forex' started by TheRumpledOne, Jan 2, 2012.

  1. HAPPY NEW YEAR!!


    TRADING IS SIMPLE


    ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT TRADING

    * Price either goes up or down.
    * No one knows what will happen next.
    * Keep losses small and let winners run.
    * POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.
    * The reason you entered has no bearing on the outcome of your trade.
    * You can control the size of your loss (skill) but you can't control the size of your win (luck).
    * You need to know when to pick up your chips and cash them in.

    Expectancy = (Probability of Win * Average Win) - (Probability of Loss * Average Loss)

    You cannot control the probabilities of wining or losing.

    You cannot control your average win size.

    The only part of the equation of the equation that you can control is your average loss size.

    PRICE ACTION

    “Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist.” - H. Rearden

    1) Price will either breakout of the high, low or both of the previous bar

    2) Price will not breakout of the previous bar.

    You cannot reduce it any further. Anything else complicates the issue.

    ENTERING A TRADE

    You either decide to:

    1) Wait and do not enter a trade

    2) Trade a breakout

    3) Trade a reversal.

    Those are your ONLY 3 options.

    That is all you need to know about trading.

    TRADING IS SIMPLE!
     
  2. [​IMG]


    "Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

    The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

    P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

    =============================================

    "Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

    1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

    2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

    They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

    They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

    =============================================

    1) Price within 20 pips of the CURRENT daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

    ============================================

    WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

    Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

    One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

    Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

    We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

    We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

    We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

    We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

    The list is almost endless.

    As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

    Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

    =============================================

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     
  3. Very good post. FWIW I totally agree, but it took me a long time to reach this point.

    The only minor difference with my written methodology is that I call the 2 choices Continuation and Reversal.

    Have a great year!!
     
  4. <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_VpvgQBeShY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

    The video version.
     
  5. [​IMG]

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

    <-------------------------------------------------------------------->

    PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
     

  6. Man, you lookin kind of paramilitary there. Need an AK on the wall and a 45 on your hip for emphasis.

    Just kidding, keep it up. Good clear trading guidelines need to be re-stated often on ET, to counter the BS that pops up. :)


    BTW, do you trade for a living, hobby, etc.
     
  7. Why can't we complicate this with price action (trading noise ) on lower time frames ?Why not tell them the simple truth about following simple trend lines?
     
  8. Responses to questions/comments...


    Paramilitary? I'll be posting survival/prepping videos, too - but not here. Trading is an income stream to me.


    Trendlines - THERE IS NO TREND. TREND EXIST ONLY IN THE MIND OF THE TRADER! I'll post a video of this in the near future.
     
  9. All You Need To Trade Is A Horizontal Line

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IFJFuJ6-tQY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     

  10. THERE IS NO TREND!

    <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/rnPMI4lOq8E" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
     
    #10     Jan 3, 2012