I was wondering about an issue, to which type of games trading is the most similar. It can't be a cassino games, because at the cassino - in the long term - you have no chance to win, and they got 100% chance to make money. It must be a zero-sum game, in which some players lose, and some players win as much as all losers lost. So, poker is very similar to trading. Scrabble also. And now, I want to focus on a following issue: what's the percentage of successful and unsuccessful players in both games, and are these numbers close to "90% losers - 10% winners" in trading. And if they are, then we could assume, that the people who win in poker and scrabble have the same skills necessary to succeed in trading. I don't how many people win in poker, but I know how it looks like in scrabble. There's a scrabble game in one of the polish online game portals. Each new player has a starting rank of 100 pts. And then, if a player wins, he earns 50 pts plus opponent rank, and a loser got opponent's rank minus 50 pts. Zero-sum game. The best player now, has a rank about 202 pts. My rank is 160 and I'm at 207th place. There are 87,000 players. The lowest rank is about 50. That's the only statistics i got. But it's enough to see what's going on. All 87,000 players have ranks between 50 and 202. The guy who has a rank of 160 is 207th. So there are about 86,800 players with rank below 160. I believe that the % of players with less than 120 rank is about 80 - 90%. 120 rank is higher than starting 100, but we must include something like commission costs in trading. In general, I think games like poker or scrabble are very close to trading. People I know who are very good at scrabble and poker have - first of all - strong psychical skills. So, to succeed in trading, you must be strong psychicaly. Maybe we should all focus on psychological aspects of trading, rather than seeking great systems and money management strategies. Just my theoretical opinion. DT-waw
there are a few well known stories of people making the transition from getting blacklisted at the casinos because they counted cards (blackjack) into the options pits. the similarity is probability. i imagine these guys can play a little poker as well.
I used to count cards in Black Jack. I was able to follow an 8 deck game. It is not similar to poker, not even close. When you count cards you have "an edge" over the casino in the long run (if you stick to your strategy of course). It is purely mechanical endeavor as opposed to poker which is mostly psychological. I now realize that the best way to daytrade is to do it in the same way as I did when I was counting cards. But first I need to develop a strategy with positive expectations.
I just got back from a casino boat from my friend's bachelor party on Saturday night. So much beer was drank, I could barely count my fingers, let alone cards. But I love the analogy and with this being my first time ever playing blackjack at a casino, I was immediately able to see how trading was the same as in how it relates to the 'laws' of probabilities. The chips got bigger and smaller during the 7 hour stretch that we monopolized the table. However, I wasn't there to learn to play the game as much as I was there to just have some fun with my buddies. Maybe next time, I'll get more into the "art behind the science" of the casino. However, the buffets are much better at the casinos than at the trading houses. All the best, Chris
I think there are some similarities between CERTAIN casino card games and trading. The biggest being the people playing them. Blackjack, you can tilt the odds in your favor. Poker I see even more similarities, and I'm not talking video poker here...I'm talking sitting down at an 8 player texas hold'em table....first off, you can't lose what you don't bet(there's your money management).....yes, there is the rake(just like commissions to your firm)...and patience, thats a big one, good players wait for their hand or their trade anyway...there are only a few great traders around and the same few guys always end up at the poker championships...and thats not luck, its skill. Be patient.
I will agree that no-limit poker is mostly psychology. Limit poker, however, is pure numbers and is exactly like trading. You have a slight edge over the newer and careless players and the drunks. The house takes its commission. If you are disciplined enough to play the odds you will always come out ahead.
I find craps to be the most similar casino game to trading. Being able to bet against or for a number allows both sides of the trade...oops, bet. I use opposing bets on the flat (come) bets. This yields very little risk, but no reward. If the roll gets hot, then I can add odds to the flat bets and get a true odds payout if the numbers repeat. I realize I won't make money, but having the discipline to wait for the roller to get hot is what I am after. My discipline gets its best test when a shooter is a dozen or so rolls into their session and other people are winning and cheering, my opposing bets are getting me nothing. As I then let some risk capital onto my bets into a seemingly hot roll, I feel like I am with the crowd and part of a good/profitable session. In trading as in craps I tend to get caught up in greed and force a trade/bet, this is when I lose fast. I don't endorse craps for traders at all, but when my trade journal shows consecutive losses and were made out of my style, I go to the casino to play disciplined craps.
www.allcraps.com is one place to learn craps. I have tried probably all strategies, heck I even wrote craps in C a long time ago and added many betting strategies. I find the discipline to successfully stay with a low-risk strategy to be the only benefit (not that I am an addicted gambler ). It is so tempting to play the higher odds bets especially when they just hit for other people. Barry
Trading is a lot like gambling. But contrary to Vegas you actually have a chance to adjust the odds of the game you choose to play. You do that by controlling losses, managing winners and consistently applying your methodology. If you want to compare trading to gambling, make sure you are the Casino PS: sorry for butchering the Bruce Lee "be water my friend" commercial.