You have discovered that markets are efficient. If any publicized indicator or chart pattern worked consistently everybody would be using it and that would change the market in such a way that the method would no longer work. That is why real traders never reveal the trading criteria they use. They know it won't work anymore if everybody else knows it. Sorry, none of this will tell you how to find your own trading method. But at least now you know where not to look.
OP - this thread is getting old. If your serious about trading then read my post. What I describe works well for me - and I had to hire a mentor to learn it. If you can't structure a profitable trading system based on what I have told you then you probably won't ever be able to do so. ,...Gustav
when people talk about technical analysis, they all seem to assume that there is this mysterious thing called technical analysis for trading. the truth is that technical analysis is only as good as each person's mastery of it. from the sound of this post, the person has not mastered any of it, because all of those tools do work. i think technical analysis is extremely accurate. it's up to the person's skill level that makes the trading as effective as need to be using technical analysis. there is the chart, and the available tools. the challenge is 'can you see what it is saying?' if you can't, i guess it can't help you. for those who can see, making money from the market can be easier than taking candy from a baby. learn, learn, and learn until you understand.
One more thing, ALL prop firms will try to convince you to use strategies that are either A. volume excessive or B. capital intensive (so they can justify the "we give our traders $1MM capital, or they will say something like ,"these days it takes a million to make money in the markets.)...or C. Both A. and B. This is 95% complete garbage. Rule #1: never let the owner of a comission oriented business tell you how to trade. He will NEVER want you hone your trading to 80/20 or 90/10 efficiency. He will be genuinely interested in you trading all day long, every day. Volume is the enemy of simplicity in my opinion. As my name implies, I did arb both MA and stat pairs, but also I traded uncorrelated pairs. At the end of the day, all strategies are directional, you are always betting on a direction al change. I save money in fees and comss now by taking just ONE SIDE of the market (the short side) being a fairly low volume guy and not having to use a ton of buying power to get the job done. This is at odds with most prop model unless they keep a substantial percentage of your profit. I walked into one such firm recently. I walked out of there thinking I would never bring my business to such a firm...ever...in my life. Trade your own way. Trade efficiently in terms of time in trades, shares traded, etc. Don't be tempted to do more volume for breaks in fees or commissions if it doesn't add value to your account. And finally, never listen seriously to the owner of a firm that makes its money from your fees (instead of your profits) and tries to tell you how to trade. Think for yourself. Your business profit = what you make from the markets - what you give or lose to the markets - the fees and commissions you pay. Always strive to make the latter approach the minimum necessary. In this day and age, most all clearing is the same Goldman Penson ML....pay the least you can. Those firms that promise you more for paying ultra high fees need to make their claims in writing, which when pressed, they won't. Be smart and effective, and don't budge on the important aspects of this BUSINESS. it is a Business, not a charity for the firm or the market. Also remember, if you are the least bit profitable over time, the firm should treat you like a GOD. Don't forget more than one out of every 10 guys walking through that door dropping 5 10 20 k down in a leveraged account walks out broke. Even small profitability over time is like gold. So strive for the best returns possible, don't over trade or spend more time than necessary in trades...it will pay off.
I use two line indicators. Three of them. I decided the defaults for each two line indicator. The above may make me real. Maybe if a person uses two line indicators (one or more) he may be considered real. You probably have a more severe test for what is real or not. For one of these indicators I am often quoted as the originator of the modern defaults. It was probably before your time. But it is the reality of the TA world. Your second questions are simpler. I studied theoretical physics from members of the Manahattan project under the sponsorship of IBM. We got stacks of books periodically. The stacks were tall. Inside these books was a series of revelations about how physics and particularly theoretical physics worked. Most of us were in the top 3% of the global GRE testing results at that time. Our instructors did not find fault with our collective or individual performance. Basic statistics is not very useful but I have seen them in use in some papers. Basic statisitcs have some serious shortcomings, I have found. Using basic statistics and connecting them to trading reality is not useful since there is little or no fit. I believe this is widely known to most who are high velocity traders, I among them. Note that HFT's are NOT high velocity traders since HFT makes relatively little money compared to high velocity trading. My range of daily trading as compared to the market range is a multiple between 3 and 6. This is based on unconscious competence and the back up of some of the best crews in the world. I have 10 to 12 reliable leading indicators. Many of them are from two line theory and practice. None of them involve induction or inductive reasoning. To pull 3 to 6 times the dauly market range out of the market requires using the technical power that supports the market operation in a very sensitive way. You may have failed to understand something or other about markets or about me. Since that possibility is showing up in your comments, you may want to consider rethinking the conclusions you have drawn. Your comments appear to be shallow and misdirected and, of course, they are incorrect in terms of the facts. If I make a statement, you can take it to the bank. Just be sure it is the bank I use and not the bank you use.
Is it the best advice you could come up with? Is it the logic you use? Beware of the advices you give... And try to think logically... Just give it a try. Good trading to you.